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Old 12-17-2023, 06:43 AM
  #71  
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Originally Posted by Riverside
Let's be honest
It'll be 15 years before any jr folks here will upgrade lol.
I guess it depends on who junior is to you. I’m expecting upgrades to trend back up to about 7 years. It’s possible it’ll be worse, but I expect that continued retirements, an eventual economic upturn, and a new fleet type will shake things up in a positive direction.
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Old 12-17-2023, 07:25 AM
  #72  
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Originally Posted by tnkrdrvr
I guess it depends on who junior is to you. I’m expecting upgrades to trend back up to about 7 years. It’s possible it’ll be worse, but I expect that continued retirements, an eventual economic upturn, and a new fleet type will shake things up in a positive direction.
2024 23
2025 35
2026 81

Retirements next 3 years, add some for early. And if a new fleet shows up, big if, it won’t be for 3-4 years. Next couple of years are gonna suck big time. And someone hired 2019 or later, good luck on upgrading in less than 10 years.
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Old 12-17-2023, 07:28 AM
  #73  
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Even seven years might be optimistic. A new hire has to motor through ~1800 numbers minus 500 bypassers at an average rate of 150 retirerees per year. Thats if we don't shrink the list further. Iv'e been here three years and would be very happy to upgrade in four. Thats with rocketship like seniority progression in the first two years which a hypothetical newhire likely wouldn't experience.
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Old 12-17-2023, 07:53 AM
  #74  
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Originally Posted by Joachim
Even seven years might be optimistic. A new hire has to motor through ~1800 numbers minus 500 bypassers at an average rate of 150 retirerees per year. Thats if we don't shrink the list further. Iv'e been here three years and would be very happy to upgrade in four. Thats with rocketship like seniority progression in the first two years which a hypothetical newhire likely wouldn't experience.
3 years puts you around 2,450 seniority. You gonna need to be under 1,900 to upgrade. With retirements, I’d say you have at least 4-5 more years, next year pretty much zero chance.
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Old 12-17-2023, 09:40 AM
  #75  
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I think he was saying he would be happy to upgrade in four MORE years. I'm very close to him in seniority and do not really expect to have upgraded by year 7. I'm guessing closer to 10 in order to stay off reserve.

As someone pointed out above, though, there's a reason you can upgrade instantly at United...it sucks.
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Old 12-17-2023, 10:24 AM
  #76  
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Originally Posted by CardboardCutout
I think he was saying he would be happy to upgrade in four MORE years. I'm very close to him in seniority and do not really expect to have upgraded by year 7. I'm guessing closer to 10 in order to stay off reserve.

As someone pointed out above, though, there's a reason you can upgrade instantly at United...it sucks.
Ahhhh, misunderstood. And yes, RSV in SFO or EWR with PBS, no conflict bidding, 2 weeks of vacation per year does not sound enticing at all.
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Old 12-17-2023, 05:36 PM
  #77  
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Originally Posted by Joachim
Even seven years might be optimistic. A new hire has to motor through ~1800 numbers minus 500 bypassers at an average rate of 150 retirerees per year. Thats if we don't shrink the list further. Iv'e been here three years and would be very happy to upgrade in four. Thats with rocketship like seniority progression in the first two years which a hypothetical newhire likely wouldn't experience.
Im a 8/19 hire. FWIW per the IPA at the welcome dinner we were told that in the next 10 years 3/4 of the seniority list would be gone. Of course that was based projections at the time. I believe we were less than 3000 pilots at the time. At the end of the day I’d rather be a senior FO here than a junior narrow body Captain anywhere else.
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Old 12-18-2023, 05:30 AM
  #78  
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Originally Posted by PointBreak
Im a 8/19 hire. FWIW per the IPA at the welcome dinner we were told that in the next 10 years 3/4 of the seniority list would be gone. Of course that was based projections at the time. I believe we were less than 3000 pilots at the time. At the end of the day I’d rather be a senior FO here than a junior narrow body Captain anywhere else.
Especially if our new CBA (whenever that may be) takes us close to or above $300 for semi senior FO, which is very realistic.

I will say this. There is a reason our Capt upgrade hovers around 55-60% seniority, vs 90-100% at the Legacies. The latest unofficial mock bid has it at 55%, super senior. You will never see that at the Legacies.
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Old 12-19-2023, 02:53 PM
  #79  
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Originally Posted by Sniper66
For someone that got hired 2/2020 when do you think will be the earlier upgrade to captain?
Go to United or Delta and upgrade right away
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Old 12-19-2023, 05:51 PM
  #80  
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Originally Posted by 767pilot
Go to United or Delta and upgrade right away
I will confess. This is more tempting than I want to admit to my friends who chose Delta over UPS or FEDEX. If I had gone there I could hold 767-400 left seat now. That’s their highest pay band. Sure, I’d be at the bottom and flying out of JFK, but I’d be making far more than I will here until I both upgrade and we get a new contract.

All that said, living in regret over choices that can’t be undone is pointless. We need to focus on the new contract. I can do nothing about shipping volume or management choices, so I focus on what I can control and enjoy my life.
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