Section Eight

Let’s see, parking airplanes, recession on the horizon, everyone pulling in one direction (their own) I feel like I’ve seen this movie before….wait, I have!

2008-2016 ring any bells?

carry on……

jetlaggy

except the sequel has brand new shiny planes and retirements

BoilerUP

"Lost decade" pilot here so while I can relate to your sentiment, I was referring specifically to stagnation at UPS.

2014+ hires have experienced nothing but movement, some of it pretty rapid. That movement is slowing coming off a five-year growth phase where the pilot group grew by more than 27%, including 2022 as the biggest hiring year since 1994...but with a looming retirement wave and marginally growing fleet (six MDs parked, nine 767s to enter service in 2023) the movement shouldn't stop...which is the definition of 'stagnation'.

UPSFO4LIFE

Yeah, I don’t see the sky falling like it did in 08. I do believe things are returning to somewhat normal operations pre 2020. There has always been waves of hiring here and where I do think hiring will pause for a while, it will not be the years hiring drought we have seen in the past.

MD11Simnerd

Not going into a definition of stagnation with you

I just don't see "looming retirement wave", there just isn't that many people here. 2023, 31. 2024, 70. 2025, 80. 2026, 123, 2027, 132. 2028 is the peak at 186 on the IPA charts today. I don't know if they are updated, and remember, people can only retire once. Between now and January 2029, there are 622 mandatory retirements. more later (closer to 2029) than sooner. Buying airplanes is a long term projection. I don't think that long term projection is bad for us. I think the short term is retracted. The bid packages reflect that, AM's block hour and line reports reflect that, lack of JA reflects that, and the realignment bid reflects that.

Block hours are down, line numbers are down,

Prediction,
Small vacancy bid in the summer with corresponding new hire classes to balance things out, or........ if the economy stays slow, another small realignment to move the deck chairs to wait out Peak 2023.

The spigot seems to be on or off here, and the last quarter turn to close it is happening now.

I know that you have never seen anything but growth in your time here, but in the position you hold right now, the data is available. Sit down with the staffing, total number of credit hours and lines, and all the other data that is available to you.

People want to hear realistic truth, and saying movement "shouldn't stop" gives an idea that is contrary to the data. The world isn't failing apart for us, it's on a definite pause.

jetlaggy

Maybe we can finally be properly staffed during our lil pause. 🤔

Joachim

I think you're close but with the average retirement age being around 62 I think it is safe to base future attrition rates on 120-150 per year for the foreseeable future. That would mean a steady but not stagnant ~10/month of hiring.

FTv3

186 pilots retiring at UPS is the same percentage as 700+ at delta, UAL, etc.

tnkrdrvr

Yes, but it’s not as emotionally satisfying

MD11Simnerd

The future will bear this out. What I can say is with the current (closing Wednesday) bid, there aren't going to be any new hire positions open until another vacancy bid comes out. It's in our contract and the IPA will defend that any new seats available go to IPAers on property first.