CLazarus

O.k. - Rather than seeing new threads start up every time fleet updates are announced, I thought perhaps a dedicated fleet thread would be a good idea. Here's a kickoff:

Last winter I thought a C Series purchase was likely since it was the only SNB option available in the short/medium term, and doing so would unlock acquiring more E-175s. I never guessed at a smokin' deal on -700s... nor that we'd set it aside. Now the C Series is doing well in service, provides an outstanding NB passenger experience, and Bombardier seems to be on the rebound. Meanwhile the Embraer E2 is progressing smartly through flight test and looks like it will enter service on time, providing a strong competitor to the C Series. If we buy nothing but 737-800/A319 sized aircraft or larger in the near future, it seems like we have a growing hole in our fleet below 130 seats. I don't think we'd buy current/used 190s, as too many carriers are unloading them. Anyone hazard a prediction on whether or not we might ultimately buy either the C Series or E2? Explain.

777-300s - So rumors have been going around about picking up another dozenish (new or maybe used). I was surprised nothing was announced yesterday, so maybe nothing is in the works after all. Personally, I thought buying more bargain basement -300s made sense while swapping the A350s for 321NEOs. In that scenario, we'd be reducing our fleet types considerably (747s/350s and ultimately even 757s). I expect we'd have to wait 6-10 years for the 321s, but I am not aware of any reason the 757s couldn't wait at least that long. Any other thoughts or wisdom? Explain.

ReadyRsv

Aerospatiale is reopening the Caravelle line. 60 Orders with 36 options.

Aquaticus

The a350-1000 which we are set to receive in 2018 post some pretty competitive numbers. I believe they were looking at new markets in china as well as the old 747 routes. It doesn't carry the same amount of cargo or passengers but the fuel burn and reduced maintenance make up for it. With China slowing down and our new president, I could see them rethinking our long term planning. A new 777 order could have very easily been squashed the same as the 737 order.

I think the hedge fund seats on the board are forcing us to be a short term thinking company. They want capital expenditures down to drive the stock up. They sell when the stock peaks and we are left with an airline that hasn't invested in new markets or grown to fight competition.

Flytolive

If you want to guess what Kirby is likely going to do at United WRT fleet decisions look at what he decided to do at AAL. This will be tempered by Levy, the CFO, and his emphasis on cost control and the differences in the networks, fleets and scope restrictions he inherited especially WRT RJs.

Here is the pertinent American fleet and plans. Notice no B739s.

A319: 125
A320: 55
A321: 194
B738: 280
B773: 20
B788: 17
B789: 3

3 B788 deliveries through 2017 for a total of 20
22 B789 deliveries start in Q3 2016
24 B738 deliveries through 2017 for a total of 304
25 A321 deliveries through 2017 for a total of 219, with 85 additional A320 family options
22 A359 deliveries pushed back to 2018
100 B737 MAXs to be delivered in 2017-2022, with 60 options in 2020-2025
130 A320neo family aircraft in 2017-2022, with 280 additional options

oldmako

Coffee, shooting out of my nostrils....





I wonder how many "children of the magenta line" could pass the check-out?

Braniff DC8

Now that was a cool jet, the Caravelle that is. It flew Men only flights from New York to Chicago, back in the 60s.

Goobacca

Dang I want 194 A321's at UAL!

CLazarus

True that, I'm just not sure how the 350 fits in anymore as a 747 replacement now that we are taking the -300s. Considering that international flying is flat or even slightly down, I'm even more dubious about adding 350s in addition to the 14 or possibly more -300s.

Interesting Motley Fool article today about the 737-700 cancellation, implied that the deal wasn't quite so smoking hot as we'd been led to believe. Perhaps UAL didn't want to commit to the C-Series last winter due to doubts about Bombardier's future. With Levy's background though, I imagine we will be back in the market for used 319s.

Flytolive - I figured we might go for 321s, your post strongly reinforces that thought. Wildcard is Boeing coming out with a Middle of the Market aircraft quickly enough to get our attention, I doubt it though.

Dave Fitzgerald

If Boeing started seriously working on a MOM plane, in earnest today, the absolutely earliest it could be available would be no earlier than around 2020. 777X and the KC-46 are pretty much taking up all their resources. Plus they are looking at yet another stretch of the 737 to compete with the A321NEO, and another stretch of the 787.

With the new emphasis on this quarterly earnings, get our attention? Get real.

gloopy

Welcome to the club.

One day we will all regret the short sighted decisions to whiz away billions for absolutely zero return/long term/company gain. When it rains it pours, and it will rain again.