Fleet Discussion and News
07-18-2017, 08:04 PM
#282
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2008
Position: UAL Guppy CA
Posts: 233
Don't know about 2018 but our PI did say all the Max's right now are growth. (of course they will park older ones eventually.). The last number for new hires he had heard for 2018 was 660 but that was a month or two old. He stated that barely covers retirements and early outs. So who knows.
07-19-2017, 09:30 AM
#283
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Posts: 862
From FlightGlobal:
United defers first four A350s
18 JULY, 2017 SOURCE: FLIGHT DASHBOARD BY: EDWARD RUSSELL WASHINGTON DC
United Airlines has deferred its first four Airbus A350-1000 deliveries, as it continues to consider alternatives to the aircraft.
The Chicago-based carrier says the deliveries have been moved "out of 2018", in a quarterly earnings statement today. It does not say when the A350s will be delivered.
It remains unclear whether United will take the 35 A350-1000s it has on order, the first of which are now due in 2019.
“That’s an order we’re paying a lot of attention to and considering different alternatives,” said Andrew Levy, chief financial officer of United, on the A350 order in February. He has since said that the airline continues to evaluate its widebody fleet needs.
United also moved 12 Boeing 737 Max 9 deliveries forward to 2019, and two Boeing 787-10 deliveries to earlier that year, it says.
The carrier has orders for 61 737 Max 9s and 14 787-10s with the first of both due in 2018.
United continues to expect its first of 100 737 Max 10s in 2020, it says.
United management will present its second quarter earnings and discuss the fleet changes on 19 July.
United defers first four A350s
18 JULY, 2017 SOURCE: FLIGHT DASHBOARD BY: EDWARD RUSSELL WASHINGTON DC
United Airlines has deferred its first four Airbus A350-1000 deliveries, as it continues to consider alternatives to the aircraft.
The Chicago-based carrier says the deliveries have been moved "out of 2018", in a quarterly earnings statement today. It does not say when the A350s will be delivered.
It remains unclear whether United will take the 35 A350-1000s it has on order, the first of which are now due in 2019.
“That’s an order we’re paying a lot of attention to and considering different alternatives,” said Andrew Levy, chief financial officer of United, on the A350 order in February. He has since said that the airline continues to evaluate its widebody fleet needs.
United also moved 12 Boeing 737 Max 9 deliveries forward to 2019, and two Boeing 787-10 deliveries to earlier that year, it says.
The carrier has orders for 61 737 Max 9s and 14 787-10s with the first of both due in 2018.
United continues to expect its first of 100 737 Max 10s in 2020, it says.
United management will present its second quarter earnings and discuss the fleet changes on 19 July.
07-21-2017, 05:42 PM
#284
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2007
Posts: 862
Also....
UNITED SHIFTS AIRCRAFT DELIVERY DATES
United may never take delivery of its A350s but the 737 MAX is coming on property faster
As part of the news released around United’s earnings call, it was announced that the delivery of United’s first four A350-1000s (it has 35 on order) would be pushed out of 2018 while 12 737 MAX 9 deliveries would be pulled forward into 2019.
The duality of these two moves is interesting, in that they push up against each other from a capital expenditure perspective in 2019. At this point, we are skeptical that United will ever take delivery of the A350-1000 order (our view is that it will likely convert them to the A350-900 or cancel the order outright with the former being slightly more likely).
The 737 MAX meanwhile, can’t get here fast enough for United. But at least initially it won’t play much of a role as a 757 replacement on trans-Atlantic missions. As United’s Andrew Nocella outlines:
Yeah. I think right now, Mike, we have plenty of 757s in our European configuration that are flying around in the domestic system. So I don’t think we have any rush to move into flying 737s across the Atlantic. But it’s something we’re going to look at for the medium to long term. But it’s not something we plan to do in the short term at all.
UNITED AND FRONTIER CLASH IN DENVER
The evolution of United’s Denver hub over the past 4-5 years has been fascinating. During the Smisek era, United was focused on international growth and so Denver as a primarily domestic hub was a bit of a red-headed stepchild.
In contrast over the last couple of years, United has increasingly seen Denver as a profit center. In today’s era of currency weakness and international over expansion, being a solely domestic hub is actually a plus.
This makes Frontier Airlines’ expansion announced earlier this week particularly troublesome for United, as Frontier will be adding service to close to 20 new nonstop destinations from Denver, encroaching on United’s turf. In response, United President Scott Kirby did not mince his words:
Sure, thanks Hunter. In the near to medium term, anytime we have capacity growth from anyone but particular a low cost carrier it’s going to lead to some pricing pressure. Over the longer term however I view this really having watched the ULCC growth over the last decade this is the best news that I’ve heard in the last ten years. I have known and look, what they said is, they’re going to run a connecting hub-and-spoke network in Denver. The model that they used to have which led them to bankruptcy, but they’re pivoting from what has been the most successful models, point to point ULCC strategy around the world to going back to trying to copy what the network carriers do and run it connecting business model.
And the reason I view that is that best thing that has happened in the last decade is because I believe for many years that the ULCC business model can’t work when a network carrier decides to compete on price and particularly once we’ve been able to roll out based economy. And while I believe that for a long time this is the first I guess public validation that one of the ULCCs is throwing in the towel on the point-to-point business model and switching to a network model. And look that’s a lot more complicated. It’s one thing to run a point-to-point network, but when you’re trying to run connecting traffic, you got to slow down the aircraft utilization because you got to wait for passengers and employees to connect and airplanes to be timed correctly.
You got to staff up, because you have peaks and valleys, you got to connect bags, which is one of the most operationally difficult thing we do. Today if Frontier has a flight from Orlando to Denver and it’s delayed by two hours, all they have to do is run the flight two hours, but the customers still get there and it’s not a good experience, but it’s not the end of the world. Tomorrow when they’d have half the people in that airplane that are connecting, if that flight is two hours late, their choice and they got one flight a day to all these markets, do we delay everything else for the rest of the day by two hours or do we have half the people on that airplane go to a hotel and spend the night or do we buy [indiscernible] half of the people in that airplane tickets on United to get them to their destination that day.
It is exponentially more complex to run a connecting model. And for Frontier to publically acknowledge that the old business model has run out of growth opportunities in the middle of an IPO process I just view as a phenomenal validation of everything we’ve done has worked and our ability to compete and win against them. And I can promise you they’re not competing on our turf and trying to get a network carrier in Denver, that is a battle I guarantee United will win.
ABOUT AUTHOR
Vinay Bhaskara
VINAY BHASKARA
Senior Business Analyst, Airways Mag.com
UNITED SHIFTS AIRCRAFT DELIVERY DATES
United may never take delivery of its A350s but the 737 MAX is coming on property faster
As part of the news released around United’s earnings call, it was announced that the delivery of United’s first four A350-1000s (it has 35 on order) would be pushed out of 2018 while 12 737 MAX 9 deliveries would be pulled forward into 2019.
The duality of these two moves is interesting, in that they push up against each other from a capital expenditure perspective in 2019. At this point, we are skeptical that United will ever take delivery of the A350-1000 order (our view is that it will likely convert them to the A350-900 or cancel the order outright with the former being slightly more likely).
The 737 MAX meanwhile, can’t get here fast enough for United. But at least initially it won’t play much of a role as a 757 replacement on trans-Atlantic missions. As United’s Andrew Nocella outlines:
Yeah. I think right now, Mike, we have plenty of 757s in our European configuration that are flying around in the domestic system. So I don’t think we have any rush to move into flying 737s across the Atlantic. But it’s something we’re going to look at for the medium to long term. But it’s not something we plan to do in the short term at all.
UNITED AND FRONTIER CLASH IN DENVER
The evolution of United’s Denver hub over the past 4-5 years has been fascinating. During the Smisek era, United was focused on international growth and so Denver as a primarily domestic hub was a bit of a red-headed stepchild.
In contrast over the last couple of years, United has increasingly seen Denver as a profit center. In today’s era of currency weakness and international over expansion, being a solely domestic hub is actually a plus.
This makes Frontier Airlines’ expansion announced earlier this week particularly troublesome for United, as Frontier will be adding service to close to 20 new nonstop destinations from Denver, encroaching on United’s turf. In response, United President Scott Kirby did not mince his words:
Sure, thanks Hunter. In the near to medium term, anytime we have capacity growth from anyone but particular a low cost carrier it’s going to lead to some pricing pressure. Over the longer term however I view this really having watched the ULCC growth over the last decade this is the best news that I’ve heard in the last ten years. I have known and look, what they said is, they’re going to run a connecting hub-and-spoke network in Denver. The model that they used to have which led them to bankruptcy, but they’re pivoting from what has been the most successful models, point to point ULCC strategy around the world to going back to trying to copy what the network carriers do and run it connecting business model.
And the reason I view that is that best thing that has happened in the last decade is because I believe for many years that the ULCC business model can’t work when a network carrier decides to compete on price and particularly once we’ve been able to roll out based economy. And while I believe that for a long time this is the first I guess public validation that one of the ULCCs is throwing in the towel on the point-to-point business model and switching to a network model. And look that’s a lot more complicated. It’s one thing to run a point-to-point network, but when you’re trying to run connecting traffic, you got to slow down the aircraft utilization because you got to wait for passengers and employees to connect and airplanes to be timed correctly.
You got to staff up, because you have peaks and valleys, you got to connect bags, which is one of the most operationally difficult thing we do. Today if Frontier has a flight from Orlando to Denver and it’s delayed by two hours, all they have to do is run the flight two hours, but the customers still get there and it’s not a good experience, but it’s not the end of the world. Tomorrow when they’d have half the people in that airplane that are connecting, if that flight is two hours late, their choice and they got one flight a day to all these markets, do we delay everything else for the rest of the day by two hours or do we have half the people on that airplane go to a hotel and spend the night or do we buy [indiscernible] half of the people in that airplane tickets on United to get them to their destination that day.
It is exponentially more complex to run a connecting model. And for Frontier to publically acknowledge that the old business model has run out of growth opportunities in the middle of an IPO process I just view as a phenomenal validation of everything we’ve done has worked and our ability to compete and win against them. And I can promise you they’re not competing on our turf and trying to get a network carrier in Denver, that is a battle I guarantee United will win.
ABOUT AUTHOR
Vinay Bhaskara
VINAY BHASKARA
Senior Business Analyst, Airways Mag.com
08-06-2017, 04:55 AM
#285
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2010
Position: EWR 777 Captain
Posts: 1,715
Anybody else catch this gem from the July UAL/ALPA SSC Report:
Looks like no big news on the horizon, but rather continued dribs and drabs of changes. Still better than a poke in the eye . . .
Everyone is Waiting for the Big Route and Fleet Plan!
Well you can stop waiting because it’s not going to happen! Yes, there is lots of change going
on but it will remain a piece by piece process. (See previous reports)
Well you can stop waiting because it’s not going to happen! Yes, there is lots of change going
on but it will remain a piece by piece process. (See previous reports)
08-06-2017, 05:39 AM
#286
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: 767/757 CA
Posts: 2,701
I e read 500-600 new hires... another 500 from the furlough bypass ranks (those who chose to stay away when recalls completed) that are due to come back... so 1000-1100 total. The number of new hires will fluctuate higher if less furlough bypass come back.
08-06-2017, 06:53 AM
#287
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2015
Position: 777 CA
Posts: 1,039
Crew Resources Update on 8/4 says 400-500 pilots total for 2018.
08-06-2017, 12:39 PM
#288
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2014
Position: 787 right
Posts: 504
Everyone keeps bringing up the July SSC report. That was put out a month ago. Old news. Also, I thought there were a max of 300 or so furloughs still out. I think the last of the furlough recalls don't have to come back until around Sept. of 2019 I thought. I could be off a bit as my memory is a little fuzzy. Probably be a big nb captain bid at the end of the year for summer '18 staffing is my guess. I think we are close to training at capacity right now and that capacity is only increasing with more instructors/sims coming available.
08-06-2017, 06:01 PM
#289
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Position: 756 Left Side
Posts: 1,629
Just food for thought-
Just came from another friends military retirement (105th AW CC).
(Great guy)
Anyways, he's coming back to U now, and 2 others have returned in the past month too.
There are still a ton of guys out on military leave. So when I hear that we are planning 400-500 newhires next year yet others argue it's not enough, we need to keep in mind that the 'Active' number of pilots will increase more than the retirement numbers cause a decrease.
Add to that, the push to be more efficient with pilots and schedules, I think that they have a plan and it's still falling into place.
As AirHoss mentioned in another thread, there are 3 issues causing our lower newhire/training numbers.
Just came from another friends military retirement (105th AW CC).
(Great guy)
Anyways, he's coming back to U now, and 2 others have returned in the past month too.
There are still a ton of guys out on military leave. So when I hear that we are planning 400-500 newhires next year yet others argue it's not enough, we need to keep in mind that the 'Active' number of pilots will increase more than the retirement numbers cause a decrease.
Add to that, the push to be more efficient with pilots and schedules, I think that they have a plan and it's still falling into place.
As AirHoss mentioned in another thread, there are 3 issues causing our lower newhire/training numbers.
08-09-2017, 08:42 PM
#290
Line Holder
Joined APC: Jul 2013
Posts: 29
A small part of the United fleet plan was announced today. United signed a 5 year CPA with ExpressJet Airlines for at least 126 aircraft (EMB145). The announcement also stated ExpressJet expects 22 CRJ700 will be flown under a future UAL CPA.
The rest of the announcement highlighted the fact that our ASA side will begin a complete draw down of the CRJ CPA with Delta Air Lines in September 2017 and be completed by November 2018. We will also be adding 8 CRJ700 to the AA CPA. The seniority lists will be integrated and pilots from the CRJ side will be able to bid into vacancies on the ERJ side starting in October 2017. The new CPA is described as profitable.
Anyway, it sounds like United has made some significant progress with its CPA holders. I was under the impression that UAL was maxed out on 70 seat scope. Dunno where the 22 CRJ700 aircraft fit into the equation. Which contractual provision allows United to increase the number of 70 seat aircraft? Does this announcement hint at the plans for United's fleet?
The rest of the announcement highlighted the fact that our ASA side will begin a complete draw down of the CRJ CPA with Delta Air Lines in September 2017 and be completed by November 2018. We will also be adding 8 CRJ700 to the AA CPA. The seniority lists will be integrated and pilots from the CRJ side will be able to bid into vacancies on the ERJ side starting in October 2017. The new CPA is described as profitable.
Anyway, it sounds like United has made some significant progress with its CPA holders. I was under the impression that UAL was maxed out on 70 seat scope. Dunno where the 22 CRJ700 aircraft fit into the equation. Which contractual provision allows United to increase the number of 70 seat aircraft? Does this announcement hint at the plans for United's fleet?
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