Grumble

Buddy of mine at EK says they've parked 19 380's and are keeping most troubles under wraps.

CLazarus

Turkish has grounded 30 aircraft and is deferring delivery of 92 321NEOs, 65 737-8s, and 10 737-9s. Lots of airlines around the world that have been expanding aggressively are starting to hit the wall. Hopefully it happens to NAI too.

As more deferrals blow holes in Airbus/BA delivery plans we'll have good opportunities to pick up new or relatively new jets at our leisure. I also noticed that LATAM and Hawaiian are getting rid of their 767s, not sure how much life they have left on them though.

No way we'd get 330s, but 321s sound more likely every week. As for the 350 sim slated for TK, the costs involved in packing that thing up and Returning to Sender are negligible in the big scheme of things.

dvhighdrive88

So the C Series order could be us?

If it is that'll go pretty junior. Don't know many lining up to fly RJ routes for less than right seat Bus or Guppy pay.

cadetdrivr

But....they look....so.....shiny.

SpecialTracking

We've had a good couple years but it's starting to look like the brakes are being applied. Either we'll do more with less or simply do less. If they are truly concerned about cap ex and revisiting shareholder initiatives then that time is upon us.

Think of NAI as Spirit on a global level wrapped in the trimmings of a flag of convenience business model. Fifteen years ago when the legacy airlines were shrinking the lcc's were gaining market share. The only thing that would crush NAI is an unsustainable cost structure. They are going to pick the low hanging fruit of passengers for a long time into the future.

El10

Some interesting predictions on here. This is my take, and it is based on what we need to replace, not how we are going to grow.

We need a few more 77Ws to replace the 744.

We need a 250-300 seat trans Atlantic replacement. The 330-900 seems to fit that role the best. Its ownership cost advantage, and not over engineered for that mission. The 787-9 does best on longer stage lengths.

Next is if the company wants to keep reducing 50 seaters or not. If they do the clear path would be C100. This way they can add more e175s.

I do not see the need to add even more 190 seat airplanes like the 321. The PS birds are old but not as pressing as other needs.

dvhighdrive88

Clearly the new guys at the top are charting a new course and the last post before this makes most sense. They may want more e175s and the pathway is the CS100 or the like. The A350 and 737 mod could state their looking to be more like Delta and do more with smaller and older gen jets that don't add to long term debt. We see that already with the -300ERs. My guess is we're headed for slower to almost flat growth on older gear and more reliance on the e175s and used narrow bodies. They'll put off the big ticket wide bodies long they can and sap Airbus and Boeing for smokin deals on older gen jets.

CLazarus

I should clarify, I wasn't really speculating about growth. I agree that the brakes are being applied. Not too long ago, if we'd wanted to order Max/NEO/350s or whatever we had to get in line, pay a premium price, and expect a half decade wait. Rather, I was pointing out that we will be able to replace older aircraft pretty much at our leisure as other carriers start bailing out of their orders. Our oldest 757-200s and 767-300s are upwards of 25 years old and our oldest 320s are approaching 25, so the most obvious candidates for replacement even though the CO is looking to reduce near term Capex. Swapping 350s for 321NEOs and maybe picking up some used 767s on the cheap would certainly keep Capex down while maintaining capacity and not adding fleet types.

MasterOfPuppets

We have a very large portion of our fleet approaching 30 years old and not alot of aircraft on order to replace them. 100 737 Max9's aint gona do it.

Firsttimeflyer

How old are the MD80/88/90 aircraft delta is still flying? How old were the D.C.-9s they got from NWA and continued to fly until the 717s started showing up from SW after the Airtran purchase.

Point is, older aircraft can keep flying, while less fuel efficient than the new shiney jets, forecast is for fuel to stay at a cost that is sustainable, especially under Trump from the predictions I've read. And we won't have big bills every month for new aircraft. That means more profit and more $$ in our March 1 checks.

I'd be happy to see another 777-300 order, forget the A350 and get a bunch of narrowbody airbi new or used. Makes more sense from a training standpoint, financial standpoint, parts/commonality standpoint. The A350 is just another long range 2 engine aircraft, and its new so that means growing pains. That all adds up to more profit and more $$ in our March 1st checks.