We have a Facebook page for new UAL hires that is generating a ton of discussion on the below topic....lots of good inside info.

There is substantial evidence pointing that there will be very little to zero new hires in the next few classes as Recall folks are getting first nod. In fact, someone sent me a text that shows and email that "no interviews will be conducted until December/January timeframes (this was sent directly from BK)."

I'm curious as to how many recall pilots are out there...

Not surprised. Almost all recalls could come back and hold a CA bid on the next vacancy, at the very least a wide body FO bid. The TA extension gave them full longevity for pay, unless they are based at home, very senior or hate United its a no brainer to come back. They will make significantly more as a wide body FO than they will as CA at any other airline out there, except maybe Southwest.

Welcome back to all of them.

Funny because yesterday in the airport a SWA pilot came up to me and informed me he was a late 1999 UAL hire on his 2nd furlough and had been at SWA for about 6 years and said it would still take him 6-7 more years to upgrade to Captain there. He was shocked when I told him he could hold 737 and Airbus Captain. He said he saw the initial seniority list when it came out and he was 10,000+ and figured he would just stay at SWA. I told him he'd probably moved up over 1,000 numbers since then and junior Captain was about 9,500 with 65 more 737s on the way plus all the other planes. He laughed and said UAL was like that when he was hired. Then he honestly said he had no idea but had 3 more years to decide whether to come back. He said if things kept going the way they were he would, but he's going to wait until the last second.

Smart move on his part.

I was hired in 95 and currently sit about 5000 ish. Out of the last 21 years, I could have been a junior narrow body captain from 98-01, 07-08, and 2012-16. During the first furlough I was a narrow body FO, second furlough I could have been the bottom SFO 777 FO or 320 Capt.

Junior folks holding onto left seats or wide body FO seats is transitory only. Enjoy it while it lasts. History says it won't last, but I hope history is wrong. It rarely is.

I think the industry peaked last year. We will see where we bottom out this time in the next couple of years.

What's the Facebook page? I was a May CJO and was told to expect October class. Been hearing some rumors lately that it could be longer than that.

PM for the page...

[QUOTE=Probe;2164372

I think the industry peaked last year. We will see where we bottom out this time in the next couple of years.[/QUOTE]

What makes you think that? Is this purely based on the economy? The world isn't producing less people to haul around.

Perfect!!!!!!! HAHAHA

History hasn't seen the amount of retirements that are on the horizon over the next 8 to 10 years. That alone is a game changer. The demand for air travel will continue. Unless they slide the retirement age to 67, or a major event like 9/11 occurs, the wave will continue.
Just my opinion.....