Get Out and Vote!
01-08-2016, 06:17 AM
#12
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
Two points.
First, this is the most profitable time in the history of the airlines. What will the landscape look like in 3-5 years when we're trying to negotiate a full contract? In 3-5 years we will be negotiating in an uncertain environment. In 3-5 years we will be at least 2.5 years behind a mature Delta contract. I realize your position of time value of money but this extension isn't free. It represents an opportunity cost extending a less than optimal total compensation package into a period of uncertain airline economics for 13-0-2%.
Second, many put a lot of faith in the snap up, averaged, up until Jan 1 2018 Delta me too clause. Delta is negotiating a full contract. Their compensation is going to increase thru many vehicles within their contract. I would be surprised if their pay/profit sharing is greater than our TA extension value. NMB will point to ours as industry standard. I expect Delta to hit it out of the park with the balance of their contract thereby nullifying our me too clause.
First, this is the most profitable time in the history of the airlines. What will the landscape look like in 3-5 years when we're trying to negotiate a full contract? In 3-5 years we will be negotiating in an uncertain environment. In 3-5 years we will be at least 2.5 years behind a mature Delta contract. I realize your position of time value of money but this extension isn't free. It represents an opportunity cost extending a less than optimal total compensation package into a period of uncertain airline economics for 13-0-2%.
Second, many put a lot of faith in the snap up, averaged, up until Jan 1 2018 Delta me too clause. Delta is negotiating a full contract. Their compensation is going to increase thru many vehicles within their contract. I would be surprised if their pay/profit sharing is greater than our TA extension value. NMB will point to ours as industry standard. I expect Delta to hit it out of the park with the balance of their contract thereby nullifying our me too clause.
As for the first point, this economic expansion has been weak and appears to be getting long in the tooth. RASM has been flat and Southwest's RASM forecast indicates that this isn't going to be a good environment to negotiate a new contract. So domestic yields sound like they'll be under pressure. In addition, on the international front, the dollar's continued strength makes US air carriers less competitive than their international counterparts.
If, as you suggest, Delta hits it out of the park on section 6 items, we'll be able to use their contract as a template for a new contract. Would I rather UALALPA follow rather than lead on this cycle? Yes. I want UALALPA to concentrate their efforts on contract enforcement over the next couple of years (rather than negotiate a new contract) because it doesn't matter how great our contract is if it's not enforceable.
01-08-2016, 06:58 AM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Position: 737 CA
Posts: 2,750
Gettinbumped,
You're welcome.
I assumed that someone would hop on my comment. But here's where we differ. My fear is that after we agree to this, UA will have us right where they want us. Namely, cheap relative to DAL when looking at total cost. Forget the straight hourly rate, there is a ton of compensation buried in work rules, sick leave accrual, vacation pay/override, etc. For example:
DAL already has a 5.4 (vs our 5.0) rig do they not? Add that up over a year (lets say 16 days per month X 12 and you wind up north of 76 hours) and you could receive an additional full months pay. Take that 76 hours at 180 bucks and add another 2 grand to your B/C fund. Small numbers add up fast, especially if you're a new hire and have 20 years to go. As another example, I used to fly Bus 4 days with a 31 hour break in CLE. Because there was no duty period that day, our rig didn't apply. Road apples.
You're welcome.
I assumed that someone would hop on my comment. But here's where we differ. My fear is that after we agree to this, UA will have us right where they want us. Namely, cheap relative to DAL when looking at total cost. Forget the straight hourly rate, there is a ton of compensation buried in work rules, sick leave accrual, vacation pay/override, etc. For example:
DAL already has a 5.4 (vs our 5.0) rig do they not? Add that up over a year (lets say 16 days per month X 12 and you wind up north of 76 hours) and you could receive an additional full months pay. Take that 76 hours at 180 bucks and add another 2 grand to your B/C fund. Small numbers add up fast, especially if you're a new hire and have 20 years to go. As another example, I used to fly Bus 4 days with a 31 hour break in CLE. Because there was no duty period that day, our rig didn't apply. Road apples.
After we agree to FRMS / 117 relief, UALco will have zero incentive to negotiate. Just this week, KWI-IAD cancelled at least twice due to crew. Cancellations like that are happening system wide, every week. That's huge leverage and we're letting it go for peanuts as this place is sloshing cash. Hell, they're giving the shareholders 4 billion and Oscar (at least) 28 million.
01-08-2016, 07:15 AM
#14
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Position: 737 CA
Posts: 2,750
You are a wise man.
Because of a few days of stock market losses, people are screaming the sky is falling.
Record job numbers, low oil prices, low unemployment and projected record airline profits are ignored from a few wild days in the stock market.
If all this worries you, please stay out of stocks. You will not be able to handle the stress.
Looking past the hourly pay, we will be far behind most other airlines and now that the company has what they want, we will be stuck for a long time.
Because of a few days of stock market losses, people are screaming the sky is falling.
Record job numbers, low oil prices, low unemployment and projected record airline profits are ignored from a few wild days in the stock market.
If all this worries you, please stay out of stocks. You will not be able to handle the stress.
Looking past the hourly pay, we will be far behind most other airlines and now that the company has what they want, we will be stuck for a long time.
What's funny to me is it's the same NO guys as last time (C2012). Only then it was....
"Delta Minus! why is our pay less than Delta's!"
"I'm voting NO because of LOA 25! we're throwing the furloughees under the bus"
This extension crushes both of those arguments in a big way. Still not enough.
But just like last time, common sense will prevail. It passes
01-08-2016, 11:01 AM
#15
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Position: 737 CA
Posts: 2,750
This TA is many things (or not) to many pilots, but to me it's an attempt for the company to buy schedule reliability for the long haul fleet. With a reliable FRMS, I think we'll see some "game changing" 
new routes with sparky and the new bigfoot deluxe. More block hours at wide body rates (plus a raise) are all good things no doubt. Cash in hand is great, but who really believes that this raise is the result of a magnanimous new CEO? We have something they need, and understandably they'll try to buy it as cheap as possible.
Considering that the TA vote will close days before Q4 and 2015 profits are released and you know we'll experience buyers remorse when we see the effect cheap oil, high load factors, and stable ticket prices has on the bottom line.
Just like Craigslist, we don't have to accept the lowball offer.
new routes with sparky and the new bigfoot deluxe. More block hours at wide body rates (plus a raise) are all good things no doubt. Cash in hand is great, but who really believes that this raise is the result of a magnanimous new CEO? We have something they need, and understandably they'll try to buy it as cheap as possible.Considering that the TA vote will close days before Q4 and 2015 profits are released and you know we'll experience buyers remorse when we see the effect cheap oil, high load factors, and stable ticket prices has on the bottom line.
Just like Craigslist, we don't have to accept the lowball offer.
01-08-2016, 11:11 AM
#16
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Position: B777 Capt
Posts: 844
After we agree to FRMS / 117 relief, UALco will have zero incentive to negotiate. Just this week, KWI-IAD cancelled at least twice due to crew. Cancellations like that are happening system wide, every week. That's huge leverage and we're letting it go for peanuts as this place is sloshing cash.
I don't believe the new TA requires pilots to extend their duty day. So if canceled flights is what you want for not extending you will still be duly rewarded with that opportunity. In fact you can do it for 16% more than you did in January.
Here is the question I would like pose. If this agreement does pass with a large margin in favor. Should the bases where the LEC was opposed to the agreement start a recall effort? If the leadership is that much out of touch with the rank and file perhaps they should be replaced. Of course that is presuming the vote goes similar to the poll here that is showing roughly 3 to 1 in favor.
01-08-2016, 11:23 AM
#17
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Position: 737 CA
Posts: 2,750
The point being..."never take the first offer" or "we don't have to take the lowball offer" are bogus statements. There were many offers and counter offers. The negotiated TA is FAR from the first/lowball offer. That's why we have a NC.
01-08-2016, 12:37 PM
#18
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2010
Posts: 419
JH passed several of the company's positions in video blast mails. Some were non starters and 2 items were dropped for reasons he clearly stated. Obviously the most important company positions would never truly be divulged to the NC right?
01-08-2016, 01:33 PM
#19
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Position: 737 CA
Posts: 2,750
01-08-2016, 01:40 PM
#20
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Position: 737 CA
Posts: 2,750
No, I don't expect the company to show their cards but I would like more background info from our union.
Maybe in depth info was presented in the webinars? It's unfortunate that the webinars didn't work, i haven't talked to anyone who could connect. 12,000+ pilots carrying iPads with data plans.......and they broadcast webinars that require a Flash player. Good job ALPA!
Are the webinars archived anywhere?
Maybe in depth info was presented in the webinars? It's unfortunate that the webinars didn't work, i haven't talked to anyone who could connect. 12,000+ pilots carrying iPads with data plans.......and they broadcast webinars that require a Flash player. Good job ALPA!
Are the webinars archived anywhere?
UAL Pilots > Contract Extension Webpage
