Citi says 65% Chance of recession next year
12-02-2015, 10:16 PM
#1
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: May 2012
Position: CAP A320
Posts: 301
Citi says 65% Chance of recession next year
Do you think this is a scare tactic I'm posting, or a reality check!! (This post was copied and pasted from a poster on UAL pilots forum btw)
Watch For U.S. Recession, Zero Interest Rates In China Next Year, Citi Says
By Jamie McGeever
LONDON (Reuters) - The outlook for the global economy next year is darkening, with a U.S. recession and China becoming the first major emerging market to slash interest rates to zero both potential scenarios, according to Citi.
As the U.S. economy enters its seventh year of expansion following the 2008-09 crisis, the probability of recession will reach 65 percent, Citi's rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. A rapid flattening of the bond yield curve towards inversion would be an key warning sign.
"The cumulative probability of U.S. recession reaches 65 percent next year," Citi's rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. "Curve inversion will likely come more quickly than the consensus thinks."
Normally, short-dated yields such as two-year yields are lower than longer-dated ones like 10-year yields, as investors demand a premium for taking on risk several years into the future. The curve has inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions since the mid-1970s.
In China, deflationary pressures and downside risks to growth will force Beijing to loosen fiscal policy, let the yuan depreciate and perhaps become the first major emerging market economy to cut interest rates to zero, Citi said.
Watch For U.S. Recession, Zero Interest Rates In China Next Year, Citi Says
By Jamie McGeever
LONDON (Reuters) - The outlook for the global economy next year is darkening, with a U.S. recession and China becoming the first major emerging market to slash interest rates to zero both potential scenarios, according to Citi.
As the U.S. economy enters its seventh year of expansion following the 2008-09 crisis, the probability of recession will reach 65 percent, Citi's rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. A rapid flattening of the bond yield curve towards inversion would be an key warning sign.
"The cumulative probability of U.S. recession reaches 65 percent next year," Citi's rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. "Curve inversion will likely come more quickly than the consensus thinks."
Normally, short-dated yields such as two-year yields are lower than longer-dated ones like 10-year yields, as investors demand a premium for taking on risk several years into the future. The curve has inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions since the mid-1970s.
In China, deflationary pressures and downside risks to growth will force Beijing to loosen fiscal policy, let the yuan depreciate and perhaps become the first major emerging market economy to cut interest rates to zero, Citi said.
Last edited by fanaticalflyer; 12-02-2015 at 10:22 PM. Reason: left off info
12-02-2015, 11:15 PM
#2
Squawking 2000
Joined APC: Jul 2015
Position: Skeptical
Posts: 737
12-03-2015, 05:43 AM
#3
Banned
Joined APC: May 2014
Position: Tom’s Whipping boy.
Posts: 1,182
From Bill Gross, probably the greatest bond investor of all time:
Bill Gross urges investors to gradually de-risk portfolios
Bill Gross urges investors to gradually de-risk portfolios
12-03-2015, 06:53 AM
#4
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Position: 737 CA
Posts: 2,750
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lPaE0orK5gE
"forget about all that macho chit, and learn how to play guitar!"
12-03-2015, 09:27 AM
#5
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2015
Posts: 108
Do you think this is a scare tactic I'm posting, or a reality check!! (This post was copied and pasted from a poster on UAL pilots forum btw)
Watch For U.S. Recession, Zero Interest Rates In China Next Year, Citi Says
By Jamie McGeever
LONDON (Reuters) - The outlook for the global economy next year is darkening, with a U.S. recession and China becoming the first major emerging market to slash interest rates to zero both potential scenarios, according to Citi.
As the U.S. economy enters its seventh year of expansion following the 2008-09 crisis, the probability of recession will reach 65 percent, Citi's rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. A rapid flattening of the bond yield curve towards inversion would be an key warning sign.
"The cumulative probability of U.S. recession reaches 65 percent next year," Citi's rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. "Curve inversion will likely come more quickly than the consensus thinks."
Normally, short-dated yields such as two-year yields are lower than longer-dated ones like 10-year yields, as investors demand a premium for taking on risk several years into the future. The curve has inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions since the mid-1970s.
In China, deflationary pressures and downside risks to growth will force Beijing to loosen fiscal policy, let the yuan depreciate and perhaps become the first major emerging market economy to cut interest rates to zero, Citi said.
Watch For U.S. Recession, Zero Interest Rates In China Next Year, Citi Says
By Jamie McGeever
LONDON (Reuters) - The outlook for the global economy next year is darkening, with a U.S. recession and China becoming the first major emerging market to slash interest rates to zero both potential scenarios, according to Citi.
As the U.S. economy enters its seventh year of expansion following the 2008-09 crisis, the probability of recession will reach 65 percent, Citi's rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. A rapid flattening of the bond yield curve towards inversion would be an key warning sign.
"The cumulative probability of U.S. recession reaches 65 percent next year," Citi's rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday. "Curve inversion will likely come more quickly than the consensus thinks."
Normally, short-dated yields such as two-year yields are lower than longer-dated ones like 10-year yields, as investors demand a premium for taking on risk several years into the future. The curve has inverted before each of the last five U.S. recessions since the mid-1970s.
In China, deflationary pressures and downside risks to growth will force Beijing to loosen fiscal policy, let the yuan depreciate and perhaps become the first major emerging market economy to cut interest rates to zero, Citi said.
12-06-2015, 02:18 PM
#6
Not on Reserve
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Position: Seat 0A
Posts: 117
And with oil at $20 UA will still be awash is cash. If you let fear decide for you, why would you ever vote no to any contract offer?
Oil Prices Could Drop to $20 a Barrel Next Year - Fortune
Oil Prices Could Drop to $20 a Barrel Next Year - Fortune
12-06-2015, 02:46 PM
#7
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2009
Position: The GF of FUPM
Posts: 3,073
12-06-2015, 05:04 PM
#8
Don't say Guppy
Joined APC: Dec 2010
Position: Guppy driver
Posts: 1,926
Competition chases easy money and high returns. With cheap oil, the 300's and 500's will come out of the desert by the hundreds if not thousands.
50 seat RJ's are probably just about free. 20 dollar oil makes a free airplane that burns a lot of gas competitive.
All the low cost guys are growing 8+ percent a year. While the majors are employing "capacity discipline". I wonder how this will turn out.....
50 seat RJ's are probably just about free. 20 dollar oil makes a free airplane that burns a lot of gas competitive.
All the low cost guys are growing 8+ percent a year. While the majors are employing "capacity discipline". I wonder how this will turn out.....
12-06-2015, 05:28 PM
#9
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2008
Position: 320 Left soon middle
Posts: 488
Interesting reading about why Saudi is not cutting production:
Why is Saudi Arabia lowering the price of crude oil?
https://www.quora.com/Why-is-Saudi-A...e-of-crude-oil
Another interesting reading, not about oil but about recession. From the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center (David Levy predicted 2008, his grandpa predicted 1929):
Why the Global Economy Is Facing Recession
Why is Saudi Arabia lowering the price of crude oil?
https://www.quora.com/Why-is-Saudi-A...e-of-crude-oil
Another interesting reading, not about oil but about recession. From the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center (David Levy predicted 2008, his grandpa predicted 1929):
Why the Global Economy Is Facing Recession
Last edited by Normann; 12-06-2015 at 05:44 PM.
12-06-2015, 06:18 PM
#10
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Position: A320 Cap
Posts: 2,282
And with oil at $20 UA will still be awash is cash. If you let fear decide for you, why would you ever vote no to any contract offer?
Oil Prices Could Drop to $20 a Barrel Next Year - Fortune
Oil Prices Could Drop to $20 a Barrel Next Year - Fortune
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