UAL T38 Phlyer

While the aircraft forecasts above I believe are accurate, looking at company manning documents and fleet info, I believe we currently have 10,400 active pilots, and about 680 aircraft (not sure if the 757-200 and 737 numbers I got were current).

That is a pilot/aircraft ratio of 15.3.

Adding these 59 aircraft would add about 900 pilots (using this ratio), but that is a far cry from 16,000, even including that our total seniority list is about 12,500.

I too have heard the 16,000 rumor. It is either just a wild rumor, or it would require the addition of 163 MORE aircraft, using the same manning ratios.

El10

Copa only has 10 737-700s left in its fleet.

The 25 a319's is inclusive of both China and Spirt shells. One leaser owns the 25.

Firsttimeflyer

Throw 100 NSNB in the mix and that 16,000 number looks pretty legit.

cadetdrivr

FWIW, a few months back during the last round of check airman meetings a certain VP was allegedly claiming mainline growth of 250-300 airframes and 15,000 pilots in five years. It was (allegedly once again) this growth combined with retirements that drove the decision to centralize training at DENTK as there was no good option to move both training centers and maintain the required training tempo.

In the interim it sounds like the rumor has improved to 16,000 in two.

Makes one wonder if the "truth" is more like 14000 in 2020?

Sniper66

[QUOTE=El10;2017733]Copa only has 10 737-700s left in its fleet.

The 25 a319's is inclusive of both China and Spirt shells. One leaser owns the 25.[/QUOTE



Ok

David Puddy

Wrong about the CS100s. I have no affiliation with Bombardier or UAL, but I need to offer some corrections. First, the order in question is for 40 CS300s - these aircraft are bigger than the CS100 by 20-35 seats depending upon the configuration. Republic originally ordered them for Frontier to replace Airbuses. And by the way, this airplane is super-advanced with very fuel efficient engines (GTF), FBW, side sticks and Collins ProLine Fusion cockpit (like what you find in high-end Global Express biz jets - it makes the 787 cockpit look old) with HUD - it puts the E190/95 to shame. Here's a cockpit photo from the smaller CS100 that SWISS will operate:
http://www.airliners.net/photo/Swiss-International-Air/Bombardier-CSeries-CS100/2733574/L/&sid=446b3e519dff7190005e8a44dde5b675

Meanwhile Air Canada can't wait to dump their E190s and traded them off to Boeing when they ordered the 737MAX. So, if they aren't good enough for Air Canada, why should UAL want them? I am not saying the E190 is terrible aircraft - it just can't compare to the CS300 in terms of performance and innovation.

The CS300 can also fly from Ft. Meyers to Seattle full in the summer (big overhead bins for the pax) or to Hawaii from smaller California airports and will soon be certified to land at London City Airport (steep approach and short runway). This isn't a dilapidated/worn A319 or 737-700. Recall that the C-Series program was largely delayed due to an engine fire - it wasn't Bombardier's fault but it suffered a big cash loss due to the resulting 6-month delay.

This airplane, compared objectively with the E195, A319 and the 737-700 is a GAME CHANGER. This is not a Q400 with jets or a junky stretched CRJ. Th program needs some serious momentum from bigger orders and UAL potentially taking Republic's order for 40 CS300s would be very helpful to the program.

Bluewaffle

my mistake, the republic order is for the larger CS300 however I don't think that's the plane that United is interested in. The whole reason for the search for a new type was to fill the gap between 76 seat RJs and the 319/737-700. The CS100 is right in the middle and could potentially replace a lot of RJ flying. I don't see United making a big investment in the 125-150 seat market when they can obviously find used 319s fairly easily.

David Puddy

True - however if you insert first class and premium economy seats you bring the seat number down. 135 seats would be for the full economy version (LCC model). Republic had 40 orders and 40 options for the CS300.

Sniper66

I say bring back from storage the 737-500 and 600
No capital expense

My2c

John Carr

Fixed for clarity.

But when a legacy has control over ALL OF IT'S OPERATION, it tends to operate better. After DAL acquired PNCL it cleaned them up considerably. Simply due to the FACT that they have so much oversight and control.

Even after the COEX/XJT IPO spinoff and CAL no longer "owned" it's exclusive (at that time) jet provider they still had almost 100% control of the operation. And due to the agreements and support provided the "on time" as well every other metric was unheard of for a regional lift provider.

Fast forward to where UCH is doing things the way the L-UAL did in the BK and you have a completely crappy and substandard product at the UAX level. And one of the most pathetic things about it, UCH wants that feed CHEAPER. Even though they are still reaping the rock bottom costs attained during all the BK RFP's and lowest bidder operating model.