More Small Narrow Body talk
01-20-2016, 12:46 PM
#271
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2008
Position: A320 Cap
Posts: 2,282
Interesting article from 3 months ago.
Bombardier haunted by decision to enter the commercial jet market - Business Insider
But to state that we can't have CS100/300 aircraft on line few 'at least a few years' is an understatement opinion.
I (and we all have our own opinions on this issue) believe we will end up with the CS100 orders from Republic, at a bargain price while also giving Republic new feeder flying once the Scope 'Choke' gets shifted with a new NSNB order. Also think we could have the first aircraft on line by this time next year. Easily by May of 2017 for the Summer flying season.
Plus, with the rate for the CS100 so low, it's a steal for the company to fly both the 100/300. The blended rate for that BES will also be a win for the company.
The 737-7 order could be a ploy to just get an even better rate from Bombardier for the CS aircraft.. or the 737-7 could be sooo cheap that the company takes them even though the direction was suppose to be MAX aircraft going forward. Just like the 777-300er order.. if the price is right, you never know~
Guess we'll know more come Friday
Always
Motch
Bombardier haunted by decision to enter the commercial jet market - Business Insider
But to state that we can't have CS100/300 aircraft on line few 'at least a few years' is an understatement opinion.
I (and we all have our own opinions on this issue) believe we will end up with the CS100 orders from Republic, at a bargain price while also giving Republic new feeder flying once the Scope 'Choke' gets shifted with a new NSNB order. Also think we could have the first aircraft on line by this time next year. Easily by May of 2017 for the Summer flying season.
Plus, with the rate for the CS100 so low, it's a steal for the company to fly both the 100/300. The blended rate for that BES will also be a win for the company.
The 737-7 order could be a ploy to just get an even better rate from Bombardier for the CS aircraft.. or the 737-7 could be sooo cheap that the company takes them even though the direction was suppose to be MAX aircraft going forward. Just like the 777-300er order.. if the price is right, you never know~
Guess we'll know more come Friday
Always
Motch
01-20-2016, 02:06 PM
#272
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Position: 737 CA
Posts: 2,750
Interesting article from 3 months ago.
Bombardier haunted by decision to enter the commercial jet market - Business Insider
But to state that we can't have CS100/300 aircraft on line few 'at least a few years' is an understatement opinion.
I (and we all have our own opinions on this issue) believe we will end up with the CS100 orders from Republic, at a bargain price while also giving Republic new feeder flying once the Scope 'Choke' gets shifted with a new NSNB order. Also think we could have the first aircraft on line by this time next year. Easily by May of 2017 for the Summer flying season.
Plus, with the rate for the CS100 so low, it's a steal for the company to fly both the 100/300. The blended rate for that BES will also be a win for the company.
The 737-7 order could be a ploy to just get an even better rate from Bombardier for the CS aircraft.. or the 737-7 could be sooo cheap that the company takes them even though the direction was suppose to be MAX aircraft going forward. Just like the 777-300er order.. if the price is right, you never know~
Guess we'll know more come Friday
Always
Motch
Bombardier haunted by decision to enter the commercial jet market - Business Insider
But to state that we can't have CS100/300 aircraft on line few 'at least a few years' is an understatement opinion.
I (and we all have our own opinions on this issue) believe we will end up with the CS100 orders from Republic, at a bargain price while also giving Republic new feeder flying once the Scope 'Choke' gets shifted with a new NSNB order. Also think we could have the first aircraft on line by this time next year. Easily by May of 2017 for the Summer flying season.
Plus, with the rate for the CS100 so low, it's a steal for the company to fly both the 100/300. The blended rate for that BES will also be a win for the company.
The 737-7 order could be a ploy to just get an even better rate from Bombardier for the CS aircraft.. or the 737-7 could be sooo cheap that the company takes them even though the direction was suppose to be MAX aircraft going forward. Just like the 777-300er order.. if the price is right, you never know~
Guess we'll know more come Friday
Always
Motch
01-20-2016, 05:50 PM
#273
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2009
Position: A320 FO
Posts: 383
Jsled
I'm sure you are just stirring the pot but
The C-series is in big trouble if Republic cancels the 40 firm CS300. This might come as a surprise but many airlines convert from one variant to another as long as the total airframes stays the same the manufacture doesn't care (really as long as it is worth the same or more). So a CS300 order could be convert to a 100 with just a stoke of a pen. It's not that hard to do. In fact you can do it with almost anything if both parties can agree on terms. Just bought a used car for my wife. Found out it had several undisclosed issue that car turned into a newer car without issues for the same price (despite a significant difference in sticker price between the first and the second). So if I can do this I am sure that United can work a deal. Like make it 50 firm instead of 40.
I'm sure you are just stirring the pot but
The C-series is in big trouble if Republic cancels the 40 firm CS300. This might come as a surprise but many airlines convert from one variant to another as long as the total airframes stays the same the manufacture doesn't care (really as long as it is worth the same or more). So a CS300 order could be convert to a 100 with just a stoke of a pen. It's not that hard to do. In fact you can do it with almost anything if both parties can agree on terms. Just bought a used car for my wife. Found out it had several undisclosed issue that car turned into a newer car without issues for the same price (despite a significant difference in sticker price between the first and the second). So if I can do this I am sure that United can work a deal. Like make it 50 firm instead of 40.
01-20-2016, 06:16 PM
#274
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Position: 756 Left Side
Posts: 1,629
As 82S stated.. easy to swap out orders.
Again.. the company HAS a reason to order a NSNB aircraft. Question becomes, do they go with an older model with old technology, or do they go with a state of the art aircraft.
It's not about today or tomorrow.. it's about looking downrange.
Does the company have plans that include an option that allows them to downgauge aircraft in times of trouble?
If things get bad in 2018-2020.. could the company park 73's and A3xx's and replace them with CS100/300's? Less seats, better economics?
Also.. if we are NOT planning a CS100 order, then why not have a pay rate for $205 an hour for that aircraft? If we are never going to order it (just like the A380), why not at least get a better rate?
GB-
You are probably right about the cost factor being low on the list of reasoning to purchase. BUT, the company knows that the leverage swings to the union/pilot group if they order an aircraft WITHOUT a set payrate.
I'll also make this point.
If the CS100 were to pay $205 an hour (12th yr Capt), that would be $20 more than what is listed now.
Figure 20 aircraft.. 200 Capts. times $20 an hour, times 1000 hours per pilot=
$4 million a year. Times 3 years (2017, 2018 and 2019).. $12 million.
Not a huge amount but that is 12 million that goes into the companys coffer and to managements bonus.
There's also the issue of the blended rate changing too.
Again, we play checkers while the company plays Chess.
Someday, we will have to give up something else in order to get the CS100 payrate higher. The company knows that.
Always
Motch
Again.. the company HAS a reason to order a NSNB aircraft. Question becomes, do they go with an older model with old technology, or do they go with a state of the art aircraft.
It's not about today or tomorrow.. it's about looking downrange.
Does the company have plans that include an option that allows them to downgauge aircraft in times of trouble?
If things get bad in 2018-2020.. could the company park 73's and A3xx's and replace them with CS100/300's? Less seats, better economics?
Also.. if we are NOT planning a CS100 order, then why not have a pay rate for $205 an hour for that aircraft? If we are never going to order it (just like the A380), why not at least get a better rate?
GB-
You are probably right about the cost factor being low on the list of reasoning to purchase. BUT, the company knows that the leverage swings to the union/pilot group if they order an aircraft WITHOUT a set payrate.
I'll also make this point.
If the CS100 were to pay $205 an hour (12th yr Capt), that would be $20 more than what is listed now.
Figure 20 aircraft.. 200 Capts. times $20 an hour, times 1000 hours per pilot=
$4 million a year. Times 3 years (2017, 2018 and 2019).. $12 million.
Not a huge amount but that is 12 million that goes into the companys coffer and to managements bonus.
There's also the issue of the blended rate changing too.
Again, we play checkers while the company plays Chess.
Someday, we will have to give up something else in order to get the CS100 payrate higher. The company knows that.
Always
Motch
01-20-2016, 06:43 PM
#275
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Position: 737 CA
Posts: 2,750
As 82S stated.. easy to swap out orders.
Again.. the company HAS a reason to order a NSNB aircraft. Question becomes, do they go with an older model with old technology, or do they go with a state of the art aircraft.
It's not about today or tomorrow.. it's about looking downrange.
Does the company have plans that include an option that allows them to downgauge aircraft in times of trouble?
If things get bad in 2018-2020.. could the company park 73's and A3xx's and replace them with CS100/300's? Less seats, better economics?
Also.. if we are NOT planning a CS100 order, then why not have a pay rate for $205 an hour for that aircraft? If we are never going to order it (just like the A380), why not at least get a better rate?
GB-
You are probably right about the cost factor being low on the list of reasoning to purchase. BUT, the company knows that the leverage swings to the union/pilot group if they order an aircraft WITHOUT a set payrate.
I'll also make this point.
If the CS100 were to pay $205 an hour (12th yr Capt), that would be $20 more than what is listed now.
Figure 20 aircraft.. 200 Capts. times $20 an hour, times 1000 hours per pilot=
$4 million a year. Times 3 years (2017, 2018 and 2019).. $12 million.
Not a huge amount but that is 12 million that goes into the companys coffer and to managements bonus.
There's also the issue of the blended rate changing too.
Again, we play checkers while the company plays Chess.
Someday, we will have to give up something else in order to get the CS100 payrate higher. The company knows that.
Always
Motch
Again.. the company HAS a reason to order a NSNB aircraft. Question becomes, do they go with an older model with old technology, or do they go with a state of the art aircraft.
It's not about today or tomorrow.. it's about looking downrange.
Does the company have plans that include an option that allows them to downgauge aircraft in times of trouble?
If things get bad in 2018-2020.. could the company park 73's and A3xx's and replace them with CS100/300's? Less seats, better economics?
Also.. if we are NOT planning a CS100 order, then why not have a pay rate for $205 an hour for that aircraft? If we are never going to order it (just like the A380), why not at least get a better rate?
GB-
You are probably right about the cost factor being low on the list of reasoning to purchase. BUT, the company knows that the leverage swings to the union/pilot group if they order an aircraft WITHOUT a set payrate.
I'll also make this point.
If the CS100 were to pay $205 an hour (12th yr Capt), that would be $20 more than what is listed now.
Figure 20 aircraft.. 200 Capts. times $20 an hour, times 1000 hours per pilot=
$4 million a year. Times 3 years (2017, 2018 and 2019).. $12 million.
Not a huge amount but that is 12 million that goes into the companys coffer and to managements bonus.
There's also the issue of the blended rate changing too.
Again, we play checkers while the company plays Chess.
Someday, we will have to give up something else in order to get the CS100 payrate higher. The company knows that.
Always
Motch
Last edited by jsled; 01-20-2016 at 07:09 PM.
01-20-2016, 06:47 PM
#276
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Position: Left
Posts: 1,823
Jsled
I'm sure you are just stirring the pot but
The C-series is in big trouble if Republic cancels the 40 firm CS300. This might come as a surprise but many airlines convert from one variant to another as long as the total airframes stays the same the manufacture doesn't care (really as long as it is worth the same or more). So a CS300 order could be convert to a 100 with just a stoke of a pen. It's not that hard to do. In fact you can do it with almost anything if both parties can agree on terms. Just bought a used car for my wife. Found out it had several undisclosed issue that car turned into a newer car without issues for the same price (despite a significant difference in sticker price between the first and the second). So if I can do this I am sure that United can work a deal. Like make it 50 firm instead of 40.
I'm sure you are just stirring the pot but
The C-series is in big trouble if Republic cancels the 40 firm CS300. This might come as a surprise but many airlines convert from one variant to another as long as the total airframes stays the same the manufacture doesn't care (really as long as it is worth the same or more). So a CS300 order could be convert to a 100 with just a stoke of a pen. It's not that hard to do. In fact you can do it with almost anything if both parties can agree on terms. Just bought a used car for my wife. Found out it had several undisclosed issue that car turned into a newer car without issues for the same price (despite a significant difference in sticker price between the first and the second). So if I can do this I am sure that United can work a deal. Like make it 50 firm instead of 40.
01-20-2016, 06:57 PM
#277
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
Does the company have plans that include an option that allows them to downgauge aircraft in times of trouble?
If things get bad in 2018-2020.. could the company park 73's and A3xx's and replace them with CS100/300's? Less seats, better economics?
Also.. if we are NOT planning a CS100 order, then why not have a pay rate for $205 an hour for that aircraft? If we are never going to order it (just like the A380), why not at least get a better rate?
If things get bad in 2018-2020.. could the company park 73's and A3xx's and replace them with CS100/300's? Less seats, better economics?
Also.. if we are NOT planning a CS100 order, then why not have a pay rate for $205 an hour for that aircraft? If we are never going to order it (just like the A380), why not at least get a better rate?
There may be a few guppies and airii that are near the end of their lives but I wouldn't expect too many to be parked since it's likely cheaper to keep flying them than buying new aircraft.
As far as adding CS rates to our pay tables, it will allow us to get better pricing from Boeing and Embraer, as they will now have to compete with the CS. It could be just another option that management wants on the table.
01-20-2016, 07:00 PM
#278
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2006
Position: 737 CA
Posts: 2,750
Jsled
I'm sure you are just stirring the pot but
The C-series is in big trouble if Republic cancels the 40 firm CS300. This might come as a surprise but many airlines convert from one variant to another as long as the total airframes stays the same the manufacture doesn't care (really as long as it is worth the same or more). So a CS300 order could be convert to a 100 with just a stoke of a pen. It's not that hard to do. In fact you can do it with almost anything if both parties can agree on terms. Just bought a used car for my wife. Found out it had several undisclosed issue that car turned into a newer car without issues for the same price (despite a significant difference in sticker price between the first and the second). So if I can do this I am sure that United can work a deal. Like make it 50 firm instead of 40.
I'm sure you are just stirring the pot but
The C-series is in big trouble if Republic cancels the 40 firm CS300. This might come as a surprise but many airlines convert from one variant to another as long as the total airframes stays the same the manufacture doesn't care (really as long as it is worth the same or more). So a CS300 order could be convert to a 100 with just a stoke of a pen. It's not that hard to do. In fact you can do it with almost anything if both parties can agree on terms. Just bought a used car for my wife. Found out it had several undisclosed issue that car turned into a newer car without issues for the same price (despite a significant difference in sticker price between the first and the second). So if I can do this I am sure that United can work a deal. Like make it 50 firm instead of 40.
Oh yes. I'm sure it's easy as pie. The orders don't even belong to UAL. And how much more is a CS300 than a CS100? I thought UAL wanted 30 NSNBs, not 50. All this blather about what A/C Ual may or may not order...LOL. They buy em, we fly em. $195/hr is industry leading. That's why this extension passes BIG baby. I'm a get my money on Friday.
Last edited by jsled; 01-20-2016 at 07:11 PM.
01-20-2016, 08:29 PM
#279
Don't say Guppy
Joined APC: Dec 2010
Position: Guppy driver
Posts: 1,926
I'll go out on a limb and say that I don't expect any aircraft orders in the near future. I expect United to pull back on CapEx and not add any new aircraft to the fleet until the economic conditions improve.
I glanced through Delta's earnings and forecasts. Delta's expecting a revenue decline and a CASM increase in the first quarter. That's not good.
In addition, Delta's international numbers looked pretty bad. That tells me United will do worse because ~30% of Delta's flying is international vs ~50% for United. Delta saw a 14% revenue decline in the Pacific, 7.2% revenue decline in Latin America and 5.4% revenue decline in Europe. It was Delta's domestic operations that saved their bacon - United's much more heavily weighted toward international flying so I'm not anticipating great numbers for the fourth quarter, nor am I expecting optimistic projections for the first quarter.
I glanced through Delta's earnings and forecasts. Delta's expecting a revenue decline and a CASM increase in the first quarter. That's not good.
In addition, Delta's international numbers looked pretty bad. That tells me United will do worse because ~30% of Delta's flying is international vs ~50% for United. Delta saw a 14% revenue decline in the Pacific, 7.2% revenue decline in Latin America and 5.4% revenue decline in Europe. It was Delta's domestic operations that saved their bacon - United's much more heavily weighted toward international flying so I'm not anticipating great numbers for the fourth quarter, nor am I expecting optimistic projections for the first quarter.
01-21-2016, 04:09 AM
#280
Moderate Moderator
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: Curator at Static Display
Posts: 5,681
Another thread covers this, but the New Guppies rumor was true:
" We are continuing to move United forward and announced today we would take delivery of 40 new Boeing 737-700 aircraft, which will enter the fleet beginning in mid-2017. These aircraft give our customers the experience they want with first class seats, Economy Plus and Wi-Fi, while enabling us to reduce 50-seat flying."
(Company email this morning).
" We are continuing to move United forward and announced today we would take delivery of 40 new Boeing 737-700 aircraft, which will enter the fleet beginning in mid-2017. These aircraft give our customers the experience they want with first class seats, Economy Plus and Wi-Fi, while enabling us to reduce 50-seat flying."
(Company email this morning).
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