The Current Negotiating Environment
10-06-2015, 03:43 AM
#71
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Joined APC: Aug 2013
Posts: 2,159
It was also Bill Clinton that leaked the Satellite phones could track UBL's movements. UBL actually had no clue that they could easedrop on him and spot his location. Crazy. Bill Clinton also gave away our MERV technology. But that's another story.
10-06-2015, 04:00 AM
#73
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2013
Posts: 2,159
Let me try to get this back on track.
Our negotiating environment is a product of four things:
1. International economics
2. Petroleum availability and refining capacity and Supply/demand
3. Domestic economy (potential customers must have disposable income)
4. Regulatory environment
The POTUS has direct influence on two of those factors (3 and 4). Indirect influence on 2 and as the primary driver on the Federal Reserve and our banking and finance laws is the single most important catalyst in determining how, when, and where money is spent internationally as well as influencing everything from interest rates to exchange rates.
If the balance between regulation (both labor and economics) is not fair, in the minds of those with the big money to either spend or invest that money will be left off-shore where it currently is. About 17 trillion dollars is out of the economy right now and will not be put in play until it is a more favorable environment.
If our Federal reserve policy is free money, then interest rates stay low. great for the new home owner if he/she can get approved for a loan. bad for the investor and the person with a savings account. Federal reserve policy influences international economics, and right now it's not that good. We can't even absorb a quarter point increase.
China's manipulation of our currency under the current administration is a failed policy. Not only is China slowing down, but its stalling and the prime holder of US debt is having its own problems due in part to a slowing international scene. Not enough people have money to spend on cheap chinese goods. (imagine that)?? crazy right.??
We have cheap oil right now, in part because Obama wants to break Russia. Russia is ****sed and that's the main reason Russia is running about rubbing our nose in it. All these crazy EPA rules and regulations are digging their tentacles into various businesses and industries across the country and that is having an effect on not only the so-called recovery, but in R/D, manufacturing, and even farming. Fuel prices will go up, they always do. But, will our economy be sufficiently recovered to absorb the effects? Can the airline industry make money when fuel prices go up? I am very concerned about the petroleum market and how the airline industry is directly affected by it. I wonder how Delta's refinery is going? If Iran increases its influence and dominance, look for not only control over oil exports in the ME, but also strait of Hormuz taxes and for international insurance companies to raise rates for all ships transiting the straits. Oil will be headed up.
Our negotiating environment is a product of four things:
1. International economics
2. Petroleum availability and refining capacity and Supply/demand
3. Domestic economy (potential customers must have disposable income)
4. Regulatory environment
The POTUS has direct influence on two of those factors (3 and 4). Indirect influence on 2 and as the primary driver on the Federal Reserve and our banking and finance laws is the single most important catalyst in determining how, when, and where money is spent internationally as well as influencing everything from interest rates to exchange rates.
If the balance between regulation (both labor and economics) is not fair, in the minds of those with the big money to either spend or invest that money will be left off-shore where it currently is. About 17 trillion dollars is out of the economy right now and will not be put in play until it is a more favorable environment.
If our Federal reserve policy is free money, then interest rates stay low. great for the new home owner if he/she can get approved for a loan. bad for the investor and the person with a savings account. Federal reserve policy influences international economics, and right now it's not that good. We can't even absorb a quarter point increase.
China's manipulation of our currency under the current administration is a failed policy. Not only is China slowing down, but its stalling and the prime holder of US debt is having its own problems due in part to a slowing international scene. Not enough people have money to spend on cheap chinese goods. (imagine that)?? crazy right.??
We have cheap oil right now, in part because Obama wants to break Russia. Russia is ****sed and that's the main reason Russia is running about rubbing our nose in it. All these crazy EPA rules and regulations are digging their tentacles into various businesses and industries across the country and that is having an effect on not only the so-called recovery, but in R/D, manufacturing, and even farming. Fuel prices will go up, they always do. But, will our economy be sufficiently recovered to absorb the effects? Can the airline industry make money when fuel prices go up? I am very concerned about the petroleum market and how the airline industry is directly affected by it. I wonder how Delta's refinery is going? If Iran increases its influence and dominance, look for not only control over oil exports in the ME, but also strait of Hormuz taxes and for international insurance companies to raise rates for all ships transiting the straits. Oil will be headed up.
10-06-2015, 04:39 AM
#74
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2013
Posts: 2,159
The current negotiating environment: This is only a player for those that are in actual negotiations trying to get a deal. What leverage do they have to drive results? Do they have a desire or a need to run the act?
It is hard to predict the negotiating environment for when we will actually begin our negotiations. Much could change.
If Hillary, I predict increased regulation, and the 17 trillion stays off shore. Not much more she could do to assist labor that hasn't already been done. We consider ourselves labor in the truest sense of the word, but we make too much money for the rest of America to consider us labor. We are considered professionals by tax-paying Americans. Don't look for sympathy if you are making over 100K from around middle class Americans. Will she raise retirement age? I think it's likely, gotta save social security, and she wants those tax dollars that senior captains make.
Bernie: He's a socialist, so if you make good money, look to give up about 40 to 45 percent of your money directly to taxes. He doesn't care much about anything else. He wants to re-distribute not only your wealth accumulation (savings), but your real-time earnings (income). It's a bad-bad deal.
Neither Bernie nor Hillary know anything about foreign ownership and foreign/unfair competion and subsidies from the gulf carriers and the likes of Norweign Air. This is a red flag to me.
Republican field: None of them seem keen to un-do any of the current FAR's, or even understand them enough to attempt it. ALPA's PAC would have to be more active again in lobbying for what they want in terms of regulation. All of them want ease of regulation, strong economic policies that favor business, and all of them understand currency manipulation and unfair foreign competition.
Our biggest threat to future negotiations is how we (the USA) implements policies towards heavily subsidized foreign competition. The foreign competition enjoys relaxed hiring standards (cheaper), relaxed regulation (cheaper and easier), free money (who doesn't want free money?), subsidized or discounted aircraft (I want a Ferrari that is government subsidized too). How do you compete with foreign competition when the playing field is so lop-sided. That's what we are doing today, and I have a feeling that will continue under the democrats. None of them seem to get it.
The foreign competion will have a huge influence of the value of and the price of a pilot. If they make it easier to become a pilot: our value goes down. If they flood the market with pilots, our value goes down. If they flood our most profitable routes with their cheaper product, our value goes down because our competitive position is diminished. Our US managements are one-foot in, and one-foot out on this. They see the value in cheap labor overseas (hello Air Lingus deal).... Remember that? That's what that was all about. lowering the price of a pilot across trans-atlantic routes.
What will our negotiating environment be like? depends on how the USA leadership deals with the foreign run and highly (unfairly so) competitive airlines. What potential leader or party can deal with the Ethiads and Emirates of the world most effectively to not only protect current US airline jobs but also give us a favorable environment in which to grow in?
It is hard to predict the negotiating environment for when we will actually begin our negotiations. Much could change.
If Hillary, I predict increased regulation, and the 17 trillion stays off shore. Not much more she could do to assist labor that hasn't already been done. We consider ourselves labor in the truest sense of the word, but we make too much money for the rest of America to consider us labor. We are considered professionals by tax-paying Americans. Don't look for sympathy if you are making over 100K from around middle class Americans. Will she raise retirement age? I think it's likely, gotta save social security, and she wants those tax dollars that senior captains make.
Bernie: He's a socialist, so if you make good money, look to give up about 40 to 45 percent of your money directly to taxes. He doesn't care much about anything else. He wants to re-distribute not only your wealth accumulation (savings), but your real-time earnings (income). It's a bad-bad deal.
Neither Bernie nor Hillary know anything about foreign ownership and foreign/unfair competion and subsidies from the gulf carriers and the likes of Norweign Air. This is a red flag to me.
Republican field: None of them seem keen to un-do any of the current FAR's, or even understand them enough to attempt it. ALPA's PAC would have to be more active again in lobbying for what they want in terms of regulation. All of them want ease of regulation, strong economic policies that favor business, and all of them understand currency manipulation and unfair foreign competition.
Our biggest threat to future negotiations is how we (the USA) implements policies towards heavily subsidized foreign competition. The foreign competition enjoys relaxed hiring standards (cheaper), relaxed regulation (cheaper and easier), free money (who doesn't want free money?), subsidized or discounted aircraft (I want a Ferrari that is government subsidized too). How do you compete with foreign competition when the playing field is so lop-sided. That's what we are doing today, and I have a feeling that will continue under the democrats. None of them seem to get it.
The foreign competion will have a huge influence of the value of and the price of a pilot. If they make it easier to become a pilot: our value goes down. If they flood the market with pilots, our value goes down. If they flood our most profitable routes with their cheaper product, our value goes down because our competitive position is diminished. Our US managements are one-foot in, and one-foot out on this. They see the value in cheap labor overseas (hello Air Lingus deal).... Remember that? That's what that was all about. lowering the price of a pilot across trans-atlantic routes.
What will our negotiating environment be like? depends on how the USA leadership deals with the foreign run and highly (unfairly so) competitive airlines. What potential leader or party can deal with the Ethiads and Emirates of the world most effectively to not only protect current US airline jobs but also give us a favorable environment in which to grow in?
10-06-2015, 04:41 AM
#75
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2013
Posts: 2,159
I don't think any current candidate from either party will let US airline pilots go to self help. Hopefully this is not necessary,but none of the carriers will ever do that again. We're all just too big to fail and too important on the US economy.
10-06-2015, 04:43 AM
#76
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Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 3,866
You are right. Absolutely right. But it was Bill Clinton that failed to get UBL when he had 4 separate opportunities. I am not a George Bush lover, but the entire genesis of the up-rising of the radical islamic movement started under Clinton. Clinton chose to ignore the problem. Ask Bill Clinton if he regrets not taking care of that. He's already admitted it three separate times on interviews. Bill gets either the credit or the blame, doesn't matter how you frame it, it is what it is.
10-06-2015, 04:48 AM
#77
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Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 3,866
Not sure of all of when or why but Clinton did make choices to not get him when he could have.
Last edited by APC225; 10-06-2015 at 05:08 AM.
10-06-2015, 05:07 AM
#78
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Posts: 3,866
Your two long posts seem like a pretty good summary of the rock and a hard place we're in, but haven't we always...
...is your take we should deal a big pay raise and some current UPA fixes for what the company wants? Apparently, the offer from the company was official yesterday. I lean towards no deal, but if things go down the tubes our current UPA may be the last best one we see in our lifetime. I'd like to at least wait for Q3 profit numbers to come in.
...is your take we should deal a big pay raise and some current UPA fixes for what the company wants? Apparently, the offer from the company was official yesterday. I lean towards no deal, but if things go down the tubes our current UPA may be the last best one we see in our lifetime. I'd like to at least wait for Q3 profit numbers to come in.
10-06-2015, 05:45 AM
#80
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Joined APC: May 2015
Position: 777 CA
Posts: 1,039
I'd like to see the actual deal first. If it's not above the rates of the most current TAs and some tweaks that are being rumored (reserve improvements, furlough time restore, etc) then I'd say no. We're already dead last in total compensation, SL, vacation pay, training pay etc etc.
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