Pure Entertainment. My SLI SWAG.
#81
Hey Joe, I think your estimates are close. The only difference I am predicting is this:
My guess is involuntary furloughees at both companies will be taken off both lists. The ratios you predict will be very close WBCA to WBCA and NBFO to NBFO! The furloughs of both companies will be merged together using longevity, career expectations, and status and category. There is the use of the merger policy, within groupings!!! . An example would be S and C at 50%, Career Ex at 35% and Longevity at 15%, allowing for groupings to exist. She does insist that it is very probable (lawyer speak for will happen...LOL) that UAL will get the advantage at the top for more WB, and I agree, but the jr folk will not be as credited, especially furloughs.
My guess is involuntary furloughees at both companies will be taken off both lists. The ratios you predict will be very close WBCA to WBCA and NBFO to NBFO! The furloughs of both companies will be merged together using longevity, career expectations, and status and category. There is the use of the merger policy, within groupings!!! . An example would be S and C at 50%, Career Ex at 35% and Longevity at 15%, allowing for groupings to exist. She does insist that it is very probable (lawyer speak for will happen...LOL) that UAL will get the advantage at the top for more WB, and I agree, but the jr folk will not be as credited, especially furloughs.
One of the best and most thought out responses I have seen on APC recently. I can't say thank-you enough for the refreshingly honest discussion!
Joe
#82
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Joined APC: Nov 2011
Position: A320 Capt
Posts: 5,299
US Air/Am West
- US Air was going out of business so career expectations were almost nil.
- Putting furloughees in with active pilots would be unfair to Am West junior pilots and subject them to risk of furlough.
- US Air does bring large planes and foreign routes so they get credit for category and class ratios.
US Air
- ratios like 2:1 for WB then 1:1 for NB
- top couple hundred US Air guys go on top because of A330
- only "active" pilots in the list
I'll grant you that Nicolau used the liquidation scenario to do what he did to the east. But, we never shutdown. As a matter of fact, we had more cash on hand than AWA, and our CEO raised most of the money that funded the merger. AWA put 0, zip, none of the money into it and paid out it's ATSB loan with the merger proceeds. The vast majority of the current US, and the most profitable part, is the old US. Doesn't matter here, but for background since you brought it up.
Nicolau put guys with 17 years LOS behind guys that were new hires when the merger was announced. He put guys that had never been furloughed behind guys with less than 6 months LOS. Brucia made a very clear dissent on this that the UA guys will use I'm sure. Arbitrator Gill(PanAm/National) said he couldn't do what Nicolau did to us because of the huge disparity in age/LOS would take provide windfalls at the expense of others. Clearly what Nicolau did, under that "failing carrier" idea, even though by the time he made his list his logic was already shown to be flawed.
As far as WB credit, only some very senior captains got any gain from that. IMHO, besides the bottom of the list, that was the most screwed up part of it. He took every single position we had on the A330 and 767, capt, F/O and IRO and gave that number(about 500) to the top US guys. So guys that could not hold WB captain got "super seniority" and the #500 guy on the US list could have walked right into PHX as the #1 guy as the few fences Nic put in place came down when they changed the age 60 rule.
After stapling the bottom east and giving the top 500 east super seniority, the rest were variable slotted with what came out to be about a 1 for 1.25 ratio. The affect of this is a very quick shift of relative position from US to AWA moving forward.
The good news is that you guys don't have you fate in the hands of one man. Our merger debacle helped change ALPA merger policy and establish the 3 man panel. Good luck to you all.
#83
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Joined APC: Feb 2013
Posts: 168
If you actually read ALL of Jim's dissenting opinion, it referred to the furloughed pilots at USAir that were recalled after the merger date, but before the award.
#84
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Joined APC: Feb 2013
Posts: 168
Thanks for the compliment! But I must say, I owe her a lot of the credit! If you get the chance, please run the #s. I'd be curious to see where the new guess will be. I still think you will be pleasantly surprised! Thanks again for the great discussion!
#85
Don't be so quick to get out that stapler.........
#86
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Joined APC: Aug 2008
Position: 787 Captain
Posts: 1,512
AND we still have unfilled positions on the A320 and 75/76 fleets. But in the world according to Bruscia we are OVERSTAFFED by ~600 pilots. What a tool. God bless you guys that are flying on the CAL side
#87
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Joined APC: Feb 2013
Posts: 168
Yes I'm very aware (what is the % compared to total furloughs?), but you as well as the CAL furloughs have been called back after what you are claiming to be the merger date. You have chosen not to go back because your QOL is better at CAL right now. Does that not support a good case for CAL jr pilots? You can't have it both ways! We won't get it both ways either.
#88
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Joined APC: Aug 2008
Position: 787 Captain
Posts: 1,512
Yes I'm very aware (what is the % compared to total furloughs?), but you as well as the CAL furloughs have been called back after what you are claiming to be the merger date. You have chosen not to go back because your QOL is better at CAL right now. Does that not support a good case for CAL jr pilots? You can't have it both ways! We won't get it both ways either.
Mostly because they're flying out of NEW CAL domiciles in places where they used to be based..therefore where they live. The truth is that both companies started making decisions about staffing/basing/fleet well before the merger was announced -- Yet you want to take advantage of all positive effects on the CAL side up to and including present day. Methinks the arbitrators are well versed in the global nature of the airline business and will see CAL for what it really was (and would've been if they hadn't linked in to the global network that UAL provided). You know where you would've been too -- right?
#89
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Joined APC: Feb 2013
Posts: 168
Mostly because they're flying out of NEW CAL domiciles in places where they used to be based..therefore where they live. The truth is that both companies started making decisions about staffing/basing/fleet well before the merger was announced -- Yet you want to take advantage of all positive effects on the CAL side up to and including present day. Methinks the arbitrators are well versed in the global nature of the airline business and will see CAL for what it really was (and would've been if they hadn't linked in to the global network that UAL provided). You know where you would've been too -- right?
And yes, QOL is better for them, aka, they are too junior on the UAL side to hold those domiciles! Your view actually supportive to CAL
I'd be careful when you talk about taking advantage to post merger growth, the callbacks at UAL as stated above by Sonny are all after the merger. You may end up selling your brethren down the river...
#90
Mostly because they're flying out of NEW CAL domiciles in places where they used to be based..therefore where they live. The truth is that both companies started making decisions about staffing/basing/fleet well before the merger was announced -- Yet you want to take advantage of all positive effects on the CAL side up to and including present day. Methinks the arbitrators are well versed in the global nature of the airline business and will see CAL for what it really was (and would've been if they hadn't linked in to the global network that UAL provided). You know where you would've been too -- right?
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