cadetdrivr

FWIW, they have already gone through the entire UAL list.

IMHO while there may be a small bump with a JCBA, those that have declined the CAL 'offer' previously have another gig and most will continue to wait it out for the SLI or later. With 10-year bypass there is no hurry. This is particularly true for those on voluntary furlough that will hold something more enticing than 737 FO in EWR, IAH, or GUM when the dust settles.

LAX Pilot

Plus I know some of the guys who didn't take the offer to come back. They are at Southwest, have gone to med/law school, etc and will probably never come back. My guess is that the ones that flow back in will do so over the next 10 years and their return will be slow and not impact hiring much.

gettinbumped

I agree with your assessment. I'm confident there will be some furloughed UAL pilots who will come back with a signed TA, but probably not too many more. From even a conservative assessment, the TA will require 400-800 more pilots based on work rule changes on the LCAL side. I suspect they will have to ramp up hiring.

What isn't as clear to me is the next couple of years. Previously announced was the order for 150 737's to replace "older airplanes". Current plan is to continue to retire the LUAL 757's, possibly leaving about 15 airframes for such things as PS service. Of the 150 order, 50 737-900ER's will be delivered starting in August. The 100 737 MAX 9's don't start coming on line until 2018. So, if we are parking approximately 85 757's and replacing them with 50 737-900ER's, that is a net loss of airplanes. What happens in 2018 is undetermined, and UCH I'm guessing will punt that decision down the road as to whether they use those for some growth, or simply replace the A320's etc.

My OPINION, is that we will remain rather stagnant with hull numbers. This will mean 400-800 hires to compensate for the TA, and then attrition, which picks up speed in 2014. Best of luck to all of you in the process.

workingforfree

Thank for all the opinions, I do agree that there will not be a significant increase in furloughs to come back immediately. I do completely realize I will be on the bottom and stagnant for a great deal of time of hired. In my case, I feel like taking the risk is perfectly ok.

gettinbumped

I've been advising my friends that are applying the same. Get in as soon as you can, even if it means being on the bottom for awhile. Securing a seniority number is key, as one never knows whats going to happen. If you are worried about being furlough proof, it ain't going to get any better by waiting! So if you are going to apply, apply EARLY

workingforfree

Agreed, hopefully new hires are in the Feb-May classes along with returning furloughs.

Ottopilot

I don't think 85 being replaced with 50 is a loss when there are 150 planes ordered (not including the 75 widebodies on order). You are talking about years from now anyway. It will be all United planes and pilots. We will not have extra crews. We will need to hire. The reserve guy will get a line, the senior FO will make captain, the narrow body guy can bid wide body. No one a LUAL will lose their job due to LCAL orders. We are "United". The ISL will happen and you can bid whatever and where ever you can hold.

How the new scope affects all this will be interesting to see.

gettinbumped

We will see for sure. The problem I have with the numbers is that we will lose the 85 airplanes in the next 24 months or so. Those will be replaced with then 50 737-900ER's. The rest of the 737's don't start arriving until 2018, long after all 85 757's are gone. So at least short term it looks like we lose 35 airframes, though that probably depends on what UCH does with the remaining 737-500's and the airplanes LCAL previously had on order. The 738 MAX 9's could be used for growth, or to replace older A320's etc. That decision probably won't be made for awhile, and will change with the economy, fuel, etc etc.

I agree that we will need to hire short term. What happens after that probably hasn't been decided, and won't be for quite awhile. LUAL had a bad habit of hiring right up to the furlough.

Most importantly for those reading this thread, is that it probably makes sense to get onto the front of the wave if you are interested in applying. Being on the bottom for an extended might not be fun, but better to get on the list sooner rather than later. The TA if passed, should make life much more livable for New Hires

LAX Pilot

The 75 new widebody aircraft on order will probably make all the difference in the world. I have full respect for all the guys flying the 737 (I was a 727 Capt while United had them) but I have no desire to fly that aircraft. So no matter how many more we get I'm not flying it, I'm just going to stay an Airbus guy forever and just fly widebody aircraft when that airplane goes away. If I never fly another Boeing, I'm find with that, but if I do, it'll be the big ones.

flyboycpa

You might find flying with a former shuttle commander makes for a better trip than flying with some of the folks you currently fly with.

Robert "Hoot" Gibson is an acquaintance of mine (I won't go all out and say a close friend). We've chatted several times and he's in the EAA (Experimental Aircraft Association) chapter at the airport south of mine. He's an avid aviation enthusiast, has two planes (one of which he built...Cassutt with his own-design wing) and is a mentor to kids in the AMA (Academy of Model Aeronautics...think R/C aircraft).

He's as honest as the day is long, and as approachable as anyone you'll ever find.

I think you'd be better off with Hoot than some of the IAH fat-a$$es that slam-click every evening.