dvhighdrive88

Old UAL CA made a statement on the thread "Delta TA Overview" that wasn't well received. It was brief but I think what he is trying to say is that market forces are very difficult to overcome regarding the direction this often bizarre and tumultuous industry goes. We are in a great time of change in this industry and the Delta TA (for good or bad) is a watershed moment and a turning point in the future of the major/regional airline industry. Now before everyone gets their pitchforks and nooses out, lets look at whats going on here and think about what is best for our collective future as a soon to be unified pilot group.

Should the UniCal JNC be considering the Delta scope TA? I think most would resoundingly say no, I don't think they have much of a choice and I'm not here to argue for or against what is before the Delta pilots-plenty of threads doings that. But lets look at WHY the Delta TA is what it is and why I believe our pilots groups will have to consider it's implications (especially in negotiations).

Folks, our future at UCH comes down to one main factor these days and that is the cost of petroleum. It is has steadily become the driving force behind where our industry is headed and the Delta TA is really a statement about the future effect strategists believe fuel prices will have on this business.

Let's look at orders for airplanes. Bulging at the seams for Busses and 737's, hardly noticeable for the 90-130 seat range and a massive order looming for the 76 seaters IF the Delta scope TA prevails across this industry. I'm not arguing for or against, so don't get that idea.

So why the tepid 90-130 orders in the US? Because fuel prices are driving the majors to actually reduce their reliance on regional feed over time and direct that flying back to the next gen Busses and 737's that will become huge RJ's with single class high density seating. You run the numbers as fuel goes $150, $200, $250 a barrel and you'll see a strategy. However, there will always be places the big guys have zip interest in going and just like SWA has no interest. In steps the Delta style regional vision (be it jet or prop) as these 50 seaters die slowly in the scrap yard. My point is fuel is by far the greatest factor in our future and it will dictate where we go, what we buy and who flies what. We can beat our chests all day and think that as pilots we are critical to fleet decisions, however we are insignificant to petrol and the effect it has on our careers, the careers of regional pilots, your friend's and families' lifestyle and fortune, the future of the US economy or the destiny of the whole damn planet?!

There has been a lot of consistent chatter that the JNC is in a similar position as the Delta guys have now publicly been put in. The decision is to minimize the effect on our careers fuel is going to have as airplanes have to become bigger, more densely packed and required to generate cash flow through a multitude of sources. From all the factors that are aligning in the industry as of late when you put them together it begins to form a picture of a future that is clearly painted through the brush of fuel prices...and because of this negotiations regarding scope are going to center on the need for the 70 seat RJ to fly where a 50 used to go less frequently as majors shift mainline flying back to high density seating narrow bodies. Is this not what the essence of the Delta TA scope section is about? Could it be the very same issue our JNC is grappling with now?

Things have a funny way of falling into place suddenly in this business. Things are moving very fast now that this TA is public. Pilots have traditionally been rather lacking in their long term strategic thinking but we need to change that. We have to think farther than to the next contract and look at where the aircraft orders are going and why.

Again, I'm not for or against. I just think rather than get preoccupied with things right before our nose, we need to be better long term strategic thinkers for our careers sake. We need to support the JNC and our union as it maybe ,
through a long term strategic, well thought out decision making process. We need to be more rational and less knee jerk with the blowhard forum antics.

The reality is people, this industry is moving ahead very quickly and it is picking up speed very suddenly. We're going to miss the train if were scrabbling around the stockyard looking for pennies in the dirt.

Fraternally,

DV

ewrbasedpilot

As a "service oriented" business, I find it interesting that management keeps giving the passengers EXACLTY WHAT THEY DON'T WANT! I don't know of too many folks who like flying RJ's, turboprops, or just commuters in general. (This is NOT a slam on the pilots who fly them............I've been there and done that.) But we continue to hear excuse after excuse of why we keep expanding the commuter network at the major's expense. My take on this? If our management wants to keep expanding the regional network, they need to be paid regional compensation. No wonder we're in the situation we're in.

ewrbasedpilot

I agree, but meanwhile MOST of our lives are being upended. Why is it that almost every fleet is being moved? It seems the B737's that have worked so well in IAH and EWR are now being moved to DEN and ORD. The Buses are being moved to IAH and EWR! CAL's B-777s are being taken off CAL routes and UAL's B-777's being put on the same routes! So, is moving these planes and pilots around saving the company money? I don't think so. They worked fine before this merger............... Interesting how a few at the top are taking a machine that worked well and screwing it up to "show us how it's done". Unfortunately, they're costing us a LOT of money in the process, not to mention ****ing off the passengers and employees.

Mwindaji

It is interesting you have decided to start a new thread due to comments made on another thread in response to OLD CAL CA. Why? To me it seems that you are either a management hack or someone who really doesn’t understand the issues of Market and Scope as well as you think. BTW there is already a thread on Scope. Why the separate thread? I will repeat my response to Old Cal CA on this thread as well.
My repose to was
If you are saying RJs are what the Market is dictating then I have to disagree. I you are saying that most people that fly what the lowest cost airline ticket then I agree up to a point. While most customers want the best deal they still want a good product. In the airline business that is not flying on a RJ. The RJ issue is more about greed and not about giving the customers what they want. Southwest has and will continue to thrive because they give the customer what they want. When I say, Southwest, I mean the employees of SW give the customer what they want. The management at SW takes care of their employees. They count on the employees to take care of the customer. Here at UCH it is about management taking care of themselves. They have the attitude of screw the customer and screw the employee as long as they can line their pockets with cash. These temporary airline CEOs and their underlings are a plague on the industry. They are a like a STD. We will never be cured of them.

SpecialTracking

Airline management determines the aircraft/market mix. The argument presented above describes a possible outcome.

Our concern should be that we, the pilots of United Airlines, fly those planes. We have endured the scorched earth over the last 11 years. I have lost all self respect as a pilot and will be damned to allow any further erosion on scope/jv's/codesharing.

SoCalGuy

I'll take what he's having.....Make it a double & put it ALL on my tab.

Concise & well said.

+1

Regularguy

To try an answer the question of what the customer wants is outside the scope of our side of this business. Our responsibility is to fly the airplanes safely and smoothly for a fee. It really doesn't matter if they are RJs or A380s what does matter is how much we get paid to do it.

Now what does the customer really want?
The best service for the cheapest cost. It is that simple.
It is marketing's job to figure out the best mix of service for the price not mine.

The whole reason for RJs is not to cut costs it is to provide the right number of seats in the market at a cost which will support and make a profit. UAL could put a 380 on the ORD to OMA route and probably even find a price which would fill every seat, but make a profit? Not my job to figure that out.

Personally my opinion is; I will provide the customers under my command safety, smoothness and professional conduct the rest is up to marketing.

Also if the customers would pay for First Class seating and service on all those RJ routes UAL would offer them in a heart beat.

Regularguy

The issue with any airplane flying under the UAL banner is who will fly them and for how much.

pksocal

"Our United Customer Commitment"

"We are committed to providing a level of service to our customers that makes us a leader in the airline industry. We understand that to do this we need to have a product we are proud of and employees who like coming to work every day.
Our goal is to make every flight a positive experience for our customers. Our United Customer Commitment explains our specific service commitments so that we can continue a high level of performance and improve wherever possible. The commitment explains our policies in a clear, consistent and understandable fashion. We have detailed training programs and system enhancements to support our employees in meeting these commitments, and we measure how well we meet them.
Welcome on board United Airlines!"

This is quoted off United's own website. Discuss SCOPE with your fellow employees. If we don't put a stop to this SCOPE debacle, we are selling our own jobs away for the carrot of a raise. We WILL get our "fair"(sarcasm) share with SCOPE protections. Half of our flying is done by non-united airline employees. "Lets Fly Together" is a farce. SCOPE, SCOPE, SCOPE!

cal73

It is beyond me how or why any ual pilot would consider scope concessions. Self -defeatists are self defeating.