syd111

I think we have the same crystal ball.

Airhoss

Please define "Jr" pilot at UAL? 20 year seniority and less maybe?

mrfurlough

Hoss,

Sr = top 1/3
Jr = bottom 1/3
This includes the combined group

SpecialTracking

United has consistently said that have an excess of pilots. I have heard numbers thrown around but lets say 200-300 currently. Throw into the mix the parking of UAL aircraft in 2012. They could exchange a UAL 757 for every guppy that comes on line at CAL. They could park other UAL aircraft for the 787s that arrive at CAL. This translates into a greater excess of UAL pilots.

United might not furlough, but I would not expect any upward movement since it might take up to 2014 to reign in the excess of UAL pilot population.

flyingfarmer

Is parking a/c and/or tranfering that much flying even allowed by the TPA ? If so, shame on ALPA! Any thoughts?

oldmako

Here's a thought. UAL management will bend over backward to hose labor, particularly pilot labor. Plan on more hosing.

James is planning on getting bent over.

UalHvy

How about not working the last year for free and leaving with 800 hours of sick leave?

dvhighdrive88

I understand the dim view Special, and lets hope your not right although I'd hedge my bets and head overseas to make some real dough just in case.

As an anti-thesis, consider this:

-Other majors are flying around a whole bunch of aircraft they could have parked a long time ago, but they are still flying them because (just a guess) they are paid for mainly or their leases are low and most importantly they are full!
The American consumer (so far) has been surprisingly resilient with travel even as the flat economy teeters on the edge of a double dip. IATA forecasts are strong, despite the slowdown. Bottom line, those airplanes are still there for a reason and I don't think most majors park full airplanes at these ticket prices (let's not forget all the fees and falling fuel prices, albeit temporary) unless the bottom just falls out of demand or.....(wait for it), your getting ready for a merger!

-I think the same is with the United crews. We've heard about the excess, but thats been going on since the furlough hasn't it? If they're so tight on the hiring at the CAL side then I find it hard to believe the bean counters have one extra pilot than they think is necessary given the propensity of United to furlough at the drop of a hat. The extra fat is there for a reason...what that is I don't know but I do know, if some accountant thought your snotty jet flying butt was expendable, you'd get a nasty FedEx the next day.

-The guys at the top are expensive! Medical, salary (despite the huge cut in their minds at least). Are you telling me they'd rather keep them around versus replacing them with some fit as a fiddle green horn at $35 an hour? I think they want retirements as soon as they can get them and that means movement. Even under your 2014 scenario, my bet is Mother U offers more buyouts especially if a contract goes in that ups all those -400 drivin multi millionaire's pay (tic).

At least that's a current theory. Subject to change.

Coto Pilot

Another restraint mgmt has is the ratio of express to mainline.
We are close to the domestic cap, if that drops they have to start paring RJ's.

Andy

On the UAL side, 'early' retirements are running a littlle less than 1/month. Zero to 3 in any given month. A lot of months with zero retirements. UAL's SSC minutes have retirements listed.

Published?
This is what we've got on UALALPO's website Q&A:
I'll detail lead turning the training pipeline later in this post but if they aren't recalling Jan 2012 and hiring by April 2012, they're going to get behind the 8 ball very quickly.
I find it hard to believe that the company would offer a lump sum. That would increase their training pipeline problems. See below.

You're not taking into account the required training pipeline once we get regular retirements again.
CAL/UAL is looking at ~40 retirements/month. Assume 20/side.
Assume 4 training events/retirement (conservative)
Assume 3 months from start of training to end of line check.
20 x 4 x 3 = 240 pilots in the training pipeline.
Add in PIs - another 300 or so.
So you're looking at a need for ~1100 pilots on both sides just to fill the training pipeline. And that's a very lowball number.

How much lead turning's required to get the pipeline going?
Let's assume all retiring pilots have 600 hours in their sick bank and burn all of it at the end. That's not going to happen but this assumption won't matter once we're past Dec 2012 as there will be a fairly consistent average monthly retirement rate. So let's say that you don't get any use out of retiring pilots in the last 6 months prior to retirement. That puts the leading edge of retirements at June 2012.
Lead turning June 2012 retirements means that the training pipeline has to be running 240 pilots no later than March 2012.
Add in another couple of months to spool up a large pool of PIs. We're now at Jan 2012.

I've never spoken to Jeff Nooger or anyone else on the SSC but they should be well aware of how many bodies and lead turn time for the training pipeline.
If the company tries to limp through summer 2012 without a training pipeline up and running full speed, they will likely be in the hole for several years because they will need newhires just to fill the pipeline; we're not going to see every furloughee return immediately after recall.

Are you sure about being close to the cap on outsourced flying? I was jumping up and down a few years ago, giving the ALPO reps an earful because block hour numbers/ratios on C2003 were blank for several years. And when the ratios finally got filled, I looked at the numbers and got even more angry - it allowed for sharp mainline block hour reductions coupled with additional outsourcing.

On the bright side, every airline is going to have to fire up their training pipelines. This will cause a sudden drop in 'available' pilots and decimate the ranks of our regional partners. Management will be forced to upguage and reduce frequency on some routes because of this. Whether or not it's a temporary condition is yet to be seen. I remember Bob Crandall stating that there never was and never will be a pilot shortage - they simply move minimum requirements up or down to ensure a sufficient supply of pilots.


Looking at the big picture, it may be the line pilot's best interest to drag contract negotiations through summer 2012, as pilot leverage will increase considerably. However, all pilots better plan on getting blamed for flight cancellations in summer 2012.