Devildog40

Really, my attitude? Never said anything provocative at all. A few felt the need to get mad over questions of airline strategy and what that means for the nations two largest airlines moving forward. It’s truly insane how you handful get so easily triggered it’s embarrassing. I believe, the issue lies within yourself & the other individuals whose emotions lead them rather than intelligent thought; sad reality y’all must live in

dmeg13021

Nobody's triggered here. Nothing provocative; just a line of inquiry and train of thought that belies a predictable personality type. You've answered your own question several times already: go to Delta.

GoCats67

So, since your original post said ZERO 737s for the "foreseeable future" and you are now saying "until the labor dispute is resolved", I guess that means that you don't see the labor dispute being resolved in the forseeable future?????

I guess your definition and mine about what the definition of forseeable future is are drastically different! No pilot anywhere should be making a 30-35 year career decision based on the strike at Boeing and how it will impact deliveries in the short term. Will Boeing's continued labor troubles and inability to engineer their way out of a paper bag cause delays in deliveries for significant time???-- yes they will. Will Airbus' inability to keep to their aircraft delivery schedule cause delays in deliveries for a significant time???-- yes it will. Will either of these issues have a materially effect a long term pilot career???---very doubtful. UA was going to hire more pilots in 2025 originally and will now likely hire "only" about 1600 because of the slowdown in deliveries. However, UA still wants all the airplanes they had planned on, so that just means it will take longer to get to here for pilots on the outside, but the end result will be an airline that is larger than it is today. They won't be as large at the end of 2025 as they wanted to be, but by the time 2027 and 2028 roll around, they will have made up for the "slow down" in deliveries we have right now.

I believe the same will be true for DL and their growth plans. Both airlines have a tremendous advantage right now as they are actually making money so they get to make strategic long term decisions about where they are going. When an airline is breaking even or losing money, they have to make short term decisions that will help them weather the current storm, even when it means they are giving up on long term plans.

Think back to the earlier 2000s when WN had an almost Billion dollar a year advantage on fuel costs due to the long term hedging they did. Throughout that time period it was not that they were running a better airline that most the others, it was that their costs for fuel allowed them to make an agressive long term plan and stick to it. They were generating profits as an airline, but all of those profits were actually from the fuel hedge. There total profit for many of those years as an airline were actually less than the fuel hedge profit, but who cares. They grabbed as much market share as they could and added capacity where they could because there were many routes that were too expensive for others to operate profitably, that still worked for them. As they grew, their costs per seat mile continued to stay low as junior empolyees make less money than the senior employees at all the other airlines. All that against the backdrop of other airlines in bankruptcy and "shrinking to profitability" meant WN had a great opportunity and they took advantage of it. A growing airline disproportiantly benefits pilots, a shrinking airline disproportiantly hurts pilots. So, WN pilots reaped major QOL benefits with promotions that most of the other majors were not seeing at all.

A less dramatic example of that is seen right now, where DL and UA are continuing ahead with their longterm growth plans, while other airlines are trying to figure out which flights to cut.

The OP has a very serious first world problem, as choosing between UA or DL right now is choosing between the best two options there are. Will we look back on this time someday and say we were wrong?? Quite possibly, But all current info points to those two carriers being the best choice for a career based on growth and stability of the balance sheet,

Devildog40

Guy, you’re obiv triggered, please.. You can’t handle someone ask’n about growth plans it’s wild. Keep chug’n ahead blindly never ask’n any questions since you’ll b too afraid of what some handful of nobodies thinks of you. Honestly like you don’t belong in the industry at all

dmeg13021

Aww, you're cute. Enjoy Delta bruh.

khergan

You're too personally invested in this, lol.

CRJCapitan

If you really want information, getting into arguments isn't very productive.

Delta only cares about making money. That is both a short-term and long-term goal, meaning they will take short-term losses if it messes with a competitor.

That being said, pilots are a long-term investment and I don't think Delta takes that lightly. If Delta thinks United is expanding too much, they will be more than happy to sit back and watch United go into debt with brand new airplanes and thousands of new pilots, only to later furlough. American, Southwest, etc. would likely feel the same way.

The entire bet United Next is predicated upon is that not only is there untapped market share, but that the market for air travel will continue to increase at a fairly rapid rate (with a particularly high demand for premium accomodations). This far into the United hiring wave, your upward trajectory is heavily dependent on these plans working out in a similar way to its original intention. You need to decide if you believe in that vision or not.

On the other hand, we pretty much know that unless Delta has far greater growth than forecast, it will take around 20 years to hit 50% seniority. There is very little chance of that changing given the current information we have, so you have to evaluate if you are okay with that or would prefer a more boom/bust path at United.

Since this is essentially impossible to accurately evaluate/predict, you should probably go with whichever one you would be happier being in the base of your choice. Atlanta has infinitely more opportunities than Houston, but UAL IAH could be a great path if you want a quick upgrade on the 73.

Best of luck with your potential choice.

JurgenKlopp

And that makes it official that Reddit would have been a better location for this thread rather then "Airline Pilot Central"