AirBear

https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...ir-2023-07-18/

-bids for 978 Captain slots, about 50% of the total have gone unfilled
-Currently UAL has 5900 Captains and 7500 First Officers

JTwift

A LOT fewer unfilled on today's snapshot than I've seen in a long while. Bring on the TA vote.

744ButtonPusher

that’s not an accurate way to paint that picture. A vacancy that was unfilled one vacancy and then offered on a subsequent vacancy and still goes unfilled, doesn’t mean there are two unfilled spots.

iahflyr

Like I have been saying, better get your captain bid in now if you want it. I think the unbid captain slots are about to do a 180 and captain will start going somewhat senior again. The reasons include:

-Actual positive space commuting for first time captains for 12 months
-Functional positive space commuting for anyone (Buy a cheap offline ticket and you don’t need a backup flight)
-Ability of new hires to bid captain (must reach the hours, but still, less of a barrier than it is today)
-Improved reserve rules
-Even more of a pay difference now in terms of total dollars
-Age 67 somewhat likely to pass

If you don’t bid captain now, it may be a long time before you can bid it again…

webecheck

still 76 unfilled by todays numbers, so news flash everyone, the ta reserve changes are not eye watering enough to move the needle at present. Uh oh.

why is this, simple, Nb reserve sucks. Why does it suck, because with basic reserve and the domestic operation, you don’t sit at home going unused. Everyone loves reserve when they don’t get called to fly. However, if I’m going to be flying regardless, I’d rather take my chances with pbs and crew companion than 17 days of availability, 18 in some months, and having little control over my trips.

but some will say, what about the money? Yeah, for some the 2nd and 3rd pay rate will be nice and they’ll do it. However this era now is different than the last 20 years of post 9/11 in that upgrade options are always going to be there. Previously you really didn’t have the chance until 10-20 years of longevity so by then people had enough of flying right seat and felt the extra work was worth the extra money. Maybe also burnt out with trying to chameleon for every Capt. When things are available all the time, people just don’t have the same fomo upgrade tendencies. And while wb fo slots are relatively filled now, remember how they weren’t, it’s just that the company is able to put new hires in 777/787 right seats, but they can’t do that for 737/320 left seats.

All airlines are having similar issues, but I actually think there’s a solution. The environment has changed, so shouldn’t manpower planning change with it? The problem is not really the pilots that would be relative seniority in category of 90-100%. Those junior bidders will always be there. It’s the pilots who sit in the 75-90% range. They want more money, but they don’t want to leave their current category getting the pbs awards, vacations, etc that they want, for an unpredictable schedule. For this I’d suggest an alternative solution of raising lines and lowering reserves. Like 90%/10%. That would probably fill some empty slots. Yes you have less reserve, but you have other tools, even more now with the ta proposal, that could fill in the gaps.

reserve is great, if you don’t get used. If you’re going to be used, nobody wants it. Simple facts.

LAXtoDEN

I believe I’ve read United doesn’t allow forced upgrades. It will be interesting to read the new TA language when it’s posted. Hopefully forced upgrades are not part of the new TA.

webecheck

we could not have a more different take. Lol. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. My guess is first stop for many won’t be a line Nb Capt, but rather tk.

hummingbear

An announced AIP is not going to change the behavior of 16,000 pilots overnight. More likely, there will be a gradual change in bidding as these policies are implemented & understood through trial & error. Many will still avoid RSV like the plague until (and if) they start talking w/ other pilots who have flown the new system & have positive things to say. This will take months to have a measurable impact & underscores why the company should not have delayed this so long into the summer. It isn’t a light switch that just turns on as soon as something is announced.

ThumbsUp

That’s spot-on. Depending on the implementation schedule, it could be a year away before any impact on vacancies appears in seniority ranges that would be subject to reserve.

TFAYD

+1

i suspect that folks also any to see manpower planning to stabilize a bit. Old rules of thumb of where the g line is are not true anymore. So people are more conservative before upgrading

a lot of predictability has been lost with manpowers shenanigans