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Old 08-22-2023, 09:55 PM
  #101  
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Originally Posted by RippinClapBombs
You would trust someone being more optimistic on hiring projections than a recruiter? Now I’ve read it all lol.
I’d trust the people actually crunching the numbers on projected hiring needs and directly talking to senior management on a daily basis than the ground level recruiters, yes.

Again I think they’re both smoking some serious copium and I doubt we get close to those numbers before something depresses travel again, but I’d trust that the numbers from planning are more accurate to their current plan than the whatever line of the day the recruiters are saying.
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Old 08-22-2023, 10:05 PM
  #102  
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Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon
I’d trust the people actually crunching the numbers on projected hiring needs and directly talking to senior management on a daily basis than the ground level recruiters, yes.
Just like the followers who trusted Jim Jones. The kool aid must be strong AF in TK land. How long have you been in this industry? Trusting the people who “crunch the numbers” is worthless. Hiring until they furlough is how the planners “plan”.
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Old 08-22-2023, 10:12 PM
  #103  
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Originally Posted by LAXtoDEN
Just like the followers who trusted Jim Jones. The kool aid must be strong AF in TK land. How long have you been in this industry? Trusting the people who “crunch the numbers” is worthless. Hiring until they furlough is how the planners “plan”.
Can you read?

​​​​​​Again I think they’re both smoking some serious copium and I doubt we get close to those numbers before something depresses travel again,
Someone was asking about projections which is how we got on this subject. I prefaced with the fact that I don’t trust any of the projections but if you’re looking for the official company line I’d go with what the planners are saying and not what the recruiters are saying.

You guys are too inpatient for nuance or context and just jump to vomit whatever stupid rant you want to go on regardless of what is actually going on in the conversation. You don’t even work here, go “WELL ACKCHYUALLY” your own airline.
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Old 08-22-2023, 10:14 PM
  #104  
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Originally Posted by mcdonald
Really interesting graph. Can I ask for the source? I'd love to see what went into this.
Every airline has a seniority projection calculator. Delta’s WidgetSeniority projection is publicly available. At AA and UA you need to be an employee to gain access. I’m assuming whoever created the graph gained access to all three. Not that difficult to achieve with a few friends at those carriers.
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Old 08-22-2023, 10:27 PM
  #105  
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Originally Posted by DarkSideMoon
Someone was asking about projections which is how we got on this subject. I prefaced with the fact that I don’t trust any of the projections but if you’re looking for the official company line I’d go with what the planners are saying and not what the recruiters are saying.
You’re subconsciously agreeing with the projections by defending the “planners” hiring estimates, but deep down you know those numbers are ridiculously high which is why you keep backing out in your second paragraph.

In other words you know Jim Jones and his kool-aid is nothing more than a gig to boost morale… but it’s Jim Jones.. so he’s probably trust worthy.. *proceeds to drink kool-aid”
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Old 08-22-2023, 10:32 PM
  #106  
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Originally Posted by LAXtoDEN
You’re subconsciously agreeing with the projections by defending the “planners” hiring estimates, but deep down you know those numbers are ridiculously high which is why you keep backing out of it in your second paragraph.

In other words you know Jim Jones and his kool-aid is nothing more than a gig to boost moral… but it’s Jim Jones.. so he’s probably trust worthy.. *proceeds to drink kool-aid”
I’m not “defending” anything. The OP asked what the planned numbers are. Someone responded with secondhand info from a recruiter, I responded with what planning is actually saying at present while also saying I don’t think either number is reliable.

If you want to twist that into exactly the opposite of what I said so you can make yourself feel smart that’s your own subconscious running amok.
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Old 08-23-2023, 06:45 AM
  #107  
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From "charm school"
Attached Images
File Type: jpg
UAL Pilot Hiring 2022-2040.jpg (100.3 KB, 411 views)
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Old 08-23-2023, 06:55 AM
  #108  
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Originally Posted by libertyrisk
From "charm school"
This might be the wildest post I've ever seen on APC.
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Old 08-23-2023, 07:13 AM
  #109  
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Originally Posted by CRJCapitan
This might be the wildest post I've ever seen on APC.
I like the footnote about "assuming 5% growth after 2027." FIVE PERCENT for 13 years in a row????

So we get to about 19,000-20,000 pilots by 2027 -- which based on 1,100 airframes, seems about right depending on how much reserve coverage the company wants. But. 35,000+ pilots by 2040. LOL.
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Old 08-23-2023, 07:18 AM
  #110  
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Originally Posted by libertyrisk
From "charm school"
Thank you for capturing this ... for posterity.
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