Q1 Loss
03-14-2023, 11:48 AM
#31
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Position: 756 Left Side
Posts: 1,629
Every time Motch posts…I always think of that South Park episode where the people love the smell of their own farts so much that the whole area is covered with a “smug” layer.
not throwing stones, seems like a good guy, but a bit…..wordy…..and places a premium on his own opinion.
https://youtu.be/AnFAAdOBB1c
not throwing stones, seems like a good guy, but a bit…..wordy…..and places a premium on his own opinion.
https://youtu.be/AnFAAdOBB1c
At least post something with a BMW/M/Convertible in it!
https://youtu.be/WRX8VGvllEY
Too soon?!
https://youtu.be/qHwbWMnZAZA
Or
Finally-
https://youtu.be/C76wGBl4i7I
Motch?!
03-14-2023, 11:59 AM
#32
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2022
Posts: 311
Interesting read...
https://seekingalpha.com/article/458...all-transcript
Keep in mind, Delta spoke at this conference too.. how "If anyone is looking for Weakness, Don't look at Delta"...
Motch
https://seekingalpha.com/article/458...all-transcript
Keep in mind, Delta spoke at this conference too.. how "If anyone is looking for Weakness, Don't look at Delta"...
Motch
It's almost as if SK seemed a little weak in his delivery. You can tell that EB has the experience. Is DAL a better airline overall in customer experience, cost, reliability, employee pay?...and still turn huge profits. Why does United continue to struggle with everything mentioned above?
03-14-2023, 12:51 PM
#33
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2015
Posts: 2,525
Again . . . zero reason for the company to take a half billion dollar charge for a new agreement with ALPA in Q1 if their expectation was no contract soon. ALPA has given them a cost and the company put it in the ledger.
I'll lay my bet now that we will have an AIP before June 30th.
I'll lay my bet now that we will have an AIP before June 30th.
03-14-2023, 01:02 PM
#35
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2010
Position: EWR 777 Captain
Posts: 1,715
Well add this to the 8k info and SK will have a serious credibility problem on Wall St. if a) he doesn't get a deal done with the pilots and b) his precious culture falls to pieces because of a contentious labor battle. (EDIT: he also says earlier in the transcript that hiring pilots is still an issue and will continue to be such meaning if we fall way behind Delta that would only get harder so add that to the list of tiny pieces of evidence in support of a deal coming soon).
I'm doubling down on my bet and agree with Swakid - deal before the end of April.
SK at today's conference:
I'm doubling down on my bet and agree with Swakid - deal before the end of April.
SK at today's conference:
I described the culture that I want to have at United as our employees are proud of the airline because if they're proud, they take care of everything else. This is the difference in customer service. We say we're about connecting people in United in the world. It's people and you get on a United airplane now, and I hear it all the time from customers all the time, both on fly my airline and flying on other airlines as a contrast.
And you got 2 flight attendants that are excited, smiling, happy to be there that love the company, feel good about the company. You have a captain that often comes out of the cockpit and gets on the PA and talks to people like those may seem like little things, but they make the experience so much different. And that has been the key to our success. We're coming out of COVID, I think, leading in the industry. And certainly, our relative positioning has improved the most, and that's why because we built the culture.
I mean I -- when I did my write-up for the Board last year, like the truth is the decision, certainly as a CEO, the kind of things you're doing are not about this quarter, they're about next year in the next 3 or 4 years beyond that. It is all about the culture if you get the culture right, look, you're going to have some ups and downs along the way, something will happen. But if you get the culture right, everything else is going to take care of itself. I 100% think that, that is the job of the CEO at every company. And the more consumer-facing you are, which we are, obviously, the more important that is in the service industry.
And you got 2 flight attendants that are excited, smiling, happy to be there that love the company, feel good about the company. You have a captain that often comes out of the cockpit and gets on the PA and talks to people like those may seem like little things, but they make the experience so much different. And that has been the key to our success. We're coming out of COVID, I think, leading in the industry. And certainly, our relative positioning has improved the most, and that's why because we built the culture.
I mean I -- when I did my write-up for the Board last year, like the truth is the decision, certainly as a CEO, the kind of things you're doing are not about this quarter, they're about next year in the next 3 or 4 years beyond that. It is all about the culture if you get the culture right, look, you're going to have some ups and downs along the way, something will happen. But if you get the culture right, everything else is going to take care of itself. I 100% think that, that is the job of the CEO at every company. And the more consumer-facing you are, which we are, obviously, the more important that is in the service industry.
03-14-2023, 01:05 PM
#36
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2020
Posts: 124
There’s more to the update than that if you keep reading and compare to prior guidance.
The company also expects its fuel bill in the quarter to be about 4%-7% higher than previous estimate.
Meanwhile, a combination of lower-demand in January and February and higher capacity has weakened its pricing power.
Total revenue per available seat mile, a proxy for pricing power, is estimated to be up 22%-23% in the first quarter from a year ago, slower than a 25% growth expected.
The company also expects its fuel bill in the quarter to be about 4%-7% higher than previous estimate.
Meanwhile, a combination of lower-demand in January and February and higher capacity has weakened its pricing power.
Total revenue per available seat mile, a proxy for pricing power, is estimated to be up 22%-23% in the first quarter from a year ago, slower than a 25% growth expected.
03-15-2023, 06:19 AM
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2009
Position: 787
Posts: 469
“Lower demand growth than other months” is not at all the same as “lower demand.” Once again, there is no bad news in this report. You who are taking this to mean the economic conditions are weakening such that our negotiating environment is not as strong (for pilots) are hurting yourselves and the entire pilot group by misunderstanding this.
Fuel costs are roughly a 7% increase compared to prior guidance, also not a huge driver of the profit change.
In summary, a slight decrease in unit revenue for Q1, a slight increase in fuel cost, but a 600bps change in margin...that is being driven almost entirely by the retiming of costs associated with a potential new collective bargaining agreement with employees represented by the Air Line Pilots Association.
Like I said, nothing bad in here, it is my best guess that SK is using other factors (outside the UPA) to explain the change in margin outlook to not spook Wall Street with a massive cost change.
Bring on the massive cost change!!!
03-15-2023, 06:35 AM
#38
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Posts: 2,501
Too late, unfortunately. 20% haircut in a week, although not entirely due to the announcement.
03-15-2023, 07:24 AM
#39
Line Holder
Joined APC: Mar 2007
Posts: 40
“Lower demand growth than other months” is not at all the same as “lower demand.” Once again, there is no bad news in this report. You who are taking this to mean the economic conditions are weakening such that our negotiating environment is not as strong (for pilots) are hurting yourselves and the entire pilot group by misunderstanding this.
I suggest you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A. to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A. you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A. you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A.I suggest you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A.I suggest you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A.suggsuggest you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A.est you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A.
03-15-2023, 09:28 AM
#40
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2020
Posts: 124
Yes, lower demand in Jan and Feb than what Kirby and the team forecast, he himself admitted that it was a bad forecast. All of this is unrelated to the pulling forward of the pilot contract charge, that obviously did have an impact as well. Kirby's forecasts aren't very conservative and he even mused about issuing more conservative guidance yesterday. The last thing he wants to do is miss quarterly guiadance and get grilled about his credibilty like he did yesterday from investors and analyst. He needs all of the pieces to fall into ant that offers significant leverage for the pilot group.
I suggest you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A. to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A. you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A. you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A.I suggest you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A.I suggest you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A.suggsuggest you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A.est you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A.
I suggest you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A. to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A. you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A. you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A.I suggest you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A.I suggest you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A.suggsuggest you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A.est you listen to the JP Morgan Industrials Conference yesterday and hear for yourself, especially the investor Q&A.
Conference. 1Q Revenue Growth 22-23% instead of the forecasted 25%. Not one mention of the material cost shift related to the impending CBA. Kirby also stated that this is the 1st time we’ve been through a full 1Q since the covid recovery, and that they are still learning the new travel patterns. The miss was due to patterns being different in JAN & FEB than expected. He also stated they are still on track for their full year margin target of 9%.
The negative news was focused on a narrow revenue miss when the majority of the 1Q loss was from the anticipated additional pilot labor. That was not discussed—some might think for obvious reasons.
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