DJIA

https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

4.3 % GDPnow

labor market stable ex silicon valley

gas prices falling

consumer spending strong

household balance sheets relatively strong compared to prior downturns

household debt servicing historically cheap (ie my 3% mortgage rate)

Real time rent/ housing indexes tanking (big component of the inflated lagging CPI index) cooler inflation reads coming

Fed whispering of an end to rapid interest rate hikes

Everyone and their mother predicting doom and gloom, most predicted “recession coming” ever? Meanwhile we climb the wall of worry next few years.

Setting up for a smooth landing after all?

lets see

FriendlyPilot

The recession will not likely be a travel recession. Airlines that can get pilots will do well in 2023.

BlueInGreen

The fight isn’t really about whether this qualifies as a recession. If you have two quarters of GDP shrinkage, it’s a recession as traditionally defined. The fight is about whether it matters. Historically, recession has been strongly correlated with a shrinking labor market. People who lose their jobs don’t pay bills. People afraid of losing their jobs don’t buy stuff. That causes further GDP shrinkage. It’s a bad situation. (See the Regan definition, which is simplistic, but actually penetrates quickly to the heart of the issue.)

This recession has been accompanied by a robust job market. So if GDP is down a little, but most everyone who wants to work can get a job, why do we care?

Yeah, the market is down, but US stock holdings are overwhelmingly concentrated in the top 10% of households, who have enough money that an unrealized loss in their stock holdings isn’t going to materially impact spending behavior.

We worry about recession not because GDP itself fundamentally matters, but because it has been correlated with bad real world outcomes for normal households. If people who want jobs have them, a small recession isn’t the worst thing.

Barley

The only reason anyone in this thread is talking about recession is because a couple of knuckleheads here couldn’t help themselves and quipped the latest spin & invented grievance from their favorite yokelydokely news.

Let’s move on. FedEx will be just fine. We will be just fine. Find a hobby outside of social media and shouting at your TV.

Nordhavn

Let's hope you are correct sir. Some of us like to be prepared for unforeseen events though. Carry on.

Barley

My post was directed at the alarmists that started into politics, further derailing what is already a terrible thread. That has nothing to do with preparing or making smart decisions. In any event, as you said, carry on.

BlueScholar

Being scared about a company that is coming off a recent global record shipping with new record high competition due to a rare pandemic that created the best possible economic conditions for them, the likes of which will never be repeated + following a years old plan to park old planes and take deliveries of new ones + following annual trends to stop training during the busiest time of the season is like being scared of seeing the sun go down. Yes it has happened every day since the first commercial pilot's great great great ancestor crawled out of the primordial swamp and complained about work rules, yes it is easily predictable, yes it has always come back the next day, BUT HOLY **** WHAT HAPPENS IF THE SUN DOESN'T COME BACK IN THE MORNING?!?!?!?!?!?!!?!?!?

Noworkallplay

First, why is this on a UA thread? Secondly, since when did cargo and passenger airlines track the same business trajectory? It’s as if the last 15-20 years has been forgotten. Numerous times in that period the lines never crossed. Just the last 3 years would say they have very little correlation.

FXLAX

Reread his post. The reason why he posted this here is obvious. He said it on the post. And he is a United pilot. Sometimes cargo has been a leading indicator of the broader economy. Maybe not this time? Which is probably why he was asking for other’s opinion.

Wheelsoff

Gotta say, I LOL’d when I read this 🤣