AlettaOcean

In the Bubble with Andy Slavitt

Demand for air travel is back in a big way, but judging by the rise in delayed and canceled flights it seems like the airline industry got caught flat footed. What’s up? Andy grills United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby on what’s causing all the schedule problems, why he thinks removing the mask mandate was a good decision, and how to cut carbon emissions in the friendly skies.


1) The pilot staffing at UAL is currently overstaffed (10% more pilots available than block hour demand)

2) UAL will need to increase staffing across all work groups to offset the ongoing increase in sick time due to COVID (4-5% more that what was needed pre-COVID)

3) Kirby doesn’t think increasing pilot retirement age is the right fix for pilot staffing issues

https://omny.fm/shows/in-the-bubble/...nited-ceo-scot

AlettaOcean

0600 First day of reserve is the equivalent of 60 pilots.

Aldo Raine

We’re overstaffed, but need to increase across all workgroups. Huh? Why is TK pumping new hires out like a factory?

Let the games begin. This is classic threats against labor during contract negotiations. They will start firing on all cylinders with this tactic. Don’t believe it for a minute.

How about you cut 10% then, and see how that works out for you?

GMAFB.

Hedley

We might be slightly overstaffed today, but the hiring boom isn’t about today, it’s about the planned expansion next year. Slightly ahead today, struggling to maintain tomorrow. 2023 could be a real circus if this TA passes. Work rule concessions coupled with angry LCA’s not picking up line checks due to only being paid per leg might make it an interesting year.

Aldo Raine

Maybe overstaffed on the triple and 7-8 due to worldwide stupidity, but certainly not anything else. Have you looked at reserves and open trips on the NB fleets? Certainly not overstaffed by any stretch.

Perhaps currently “misallocated” staffing, but NOT overstaffed.

I think it’s just management probing and starting with the scare tactics because they are pretty certain this TA is going down in flames. SK is smart enough to know the differences between misallocations vs. overstaffing.

fadec

The TA is entirely manpower positive so maybe that 5-10% is just what the TA gives the company. We're staffing the airline today and after the TA we'll be 5-10% positive relative to today, thus 5-10% over. What a finagling lie this is. It's a way to make the frightened wimps vote YES and nothing more. The timing of his announcement says it all. Men lie with their mouths and speak the truth with their feet, and right now we're hiring like crazy while every company is putting money into pipelines like Aviate. The TA also rubs the company's training sore spot much more aggressively than anything else with pay cap raises and scope gives. What the company is doing doesn't match what SK is saying at all. But guys will believe it. These frightened wimps think they're smart. They think they see the crash coming, but that's not how crashes work. Crashes are always coming but you only see when they happen in hindsight. And if a crash does come, the current contract gives far better furlough protection by keeping it costly as the training center remains under union control. Let's call this bluff and vote NO. A NO loses nothing. A YES is a certain give on so many points it will bring regional work rules to our entire career.

Excargodog

If ANY airline management truly believed you were over staffed they would be furloughing in a heartbeat. They’ve shown that often enough. But in this environment they don’t even dare use that ploy, because you furlough the JUNIOR people and those people have so many opportunities elsewhere you never would get them back.

When you don’t have the cards the only way you can win is to bluff. If the pilot groups are naive enough to let them get away with the bluffing they’ll get a concessionary contract - one the RLA will let them drag out for a decade. And frankly, if the pilot groups ARE that naive, they don’t deserve anything better.

Round Luggage

A lot of you bought into Kirby.

Hedley

Airline managers talk like lawyers. They don’t necessarily lie, they just cherry pick data and tell “partial truths”. I’m sure that according to a specific metric his statement was factually accurate, just not the big picture. An example is his statement about health issues and sick leave stats for pilots nearing age 65. He truthfully stated that as people near retirement that their availability for duty significantly decreases due to sick calls, he just left out the part about how he knows that we burn our sick bank before leaving.

fadec

He's still my hero. Bro can play cards.