Lewbronski

I’ve made this point on other threads here before. Given that the TA could be described as near-concessionary in that it doesn’t make UAL more appealing as a destination airline in the pilot hiring market place - if anything, if the TA is ratified it makes UAL less appealing - it appears that Kirby is not simply bluffing when he described UAL as overstaffed.

The TA indicates that Kirby doesn’t see a problem going forward with pilot supply. If he did, a rational response would have been to create an incentive for pilot applicants to favor UAL in the pilot hiring market place by incentivizing them with superior pay, retirement, work rules, etc. But Kirby didn’t do that.

Maybe the idea of a pilot shortage isn’t really as critical of an issue in the eyes of airline management as pilots would like to believe it is. Maybe the idea of a pilot shortage doesn’t generate fear for Kirby. Maybe it’s not the leverage pilots think it is.

So, what’s plan B if that is, in fact, the case? What’s the leverage for UAL’s pilot group? More than four years without filing for mediation means the credible threat of self help is years away. How is the UAL pilot group planning to apply leverage to Kirby going forward assuming the TA fails?

jerryleber

Kirby is VERY good at what he does and this TA is proving it again. It is our union and we who are failing.

01110011

If I’m already getting constant reassignments and rolled days off when the airline is “10% overstaffed” I hate to see what things are going to look like when we’re taking delivery of a new narrowbody every other day. Would be nice to have some limits on how often the company can roll you into staying on the road another day as a lineholder.

Ryder1587

I don’t buy it. The numbers support a huge hiring wave and a shortage coming up. Hence the starting their own flight schools and flow programs. This is a standard negotiating tactic. Ask for something super low and then pretend to meet you in the middle because they know what pilots are asking for. They’re hoping pilots will give in and think we actually don’t have the leverage. Look at how much they are currently still hiring but they over staffed ?! BS.

Mudge

Mandatory retirements alone would fix any overstaffing.

Excargodog

It’s pattern bargaining. The first major to actually grant the QOL and pay scale concessions that are ultimately going to be required IN THIS MARKET is going to set the standard for the whole industry. Similarly, if any management group can low ball the market and get inflation neutral or - from their perspective better yet - a concessionary CBA, it too sets the standard for the whole industry.

Kirby tried to force the issue with scope and continuing what amounts to selling United pilot flying to the lowest bidder and it didn’t work out. But if he can convince enough Nervous Nellies like you that he can threaten their jobs, he can get them to take real wage cuts and real QOL losses just by jawboning. Why on earth wouldn’t he try it.

An even better question, why on earth would you fall for it? ATP number demographics and mandatory retirement numbers are a matter of puckish record. Ten minutes worth of googling would show you that. Try a little research next time you are in a hotel room someplace, rather than doing 16 oz forearm curls in the hotel bar and you’ll be able to see that for yourself.

jerryleber

Exactly and it was no accident that the airlines picked the United pilot contract to lead the pattern this time. They knew our union leadership was compromised and this TA proves they were right.

AntiPeter

Perhaps not all airline CEOs are liars.

Kirby is a dishonest liar. Chronically.

He probably won a few hundred more yes votes. It’s easy to scare pilots into thinking their jobs are at risk.

Otterbox

The only people whose jobs are allegedly at risk can’t vote. If UA was 10% over staffed, hiring would slow down. A friend is in a BI class starting today… so this isn’t quite the case. There’s still that 100+ planes they’re planning on taking in 2023.

Lewbronski

My point is that it's possible that the idea of a pilot shortage is not a real issue in the eyes of airline executives like Kirby. I'm not saying that it's definitely not an issue. But I'm also saying that maybe pilots are putting all their cards on it when it doesn't really create that much leverage.

Prudence dictates having a back up plan. For example, a back up plan could have been, for example, filing for mediation 3.5 years ago in order to start the clock on developing leverage under the RLA while still planning to use the possible pilot shortage as the main line of attack. Had the pilot shortage not been enough to pressure management into conceding to substantial gains, UAL ALPA would have had a very strong back up plan already in place and fully mature. But they didn't.

Therefore, UAL ALPA (hopefully, an entirely new MEC, NC, and executive team) needs to do something very different after the TA fails - if it fails. They need to begin implementing a Plan B. They need to be smart whereas up to now they've demonstrated incompetence. And they need to be aggressive whereas up to now they've demonstrated passivity. A first step would be to file for mediation as soon as is possible after forming a new team. Then, they need to conduct a strike authorization vote that results in an overwhelming vote to authorize a strike in order to send a strong message to Kirby that the new team is very different than the old one and that the pilot group is united in their intent to go as far as is necessary to achieve gains. That will likely require a thorough messaging campaign so that pilots understand what conducting a strike authorization vote soon after filing for mediation means. It doesn't mean they're going on strike any time soon. That couldn't happen for at least two to three years after filing for mediation. It's all about communicating a message to Kirby.

Then, they need to begin massive and frequent informational pickets. That would be a good start. Hopefully, Kirby will realize what faces him in two to three years if he allows the situation to fester and he will be in more of a mood to truly bargain today as a result.

But if UAL ALPA continues with the same people on the same path, expect more of the same concessionary results.