MOAB
07-21-2021, 10:43 PM
#41
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2019
Position: Guppy.
Posts: 285
Judging by what's currently going on over in Asia, it's very unlikely that China+Hong Kong will be re-opening for at least 2-3 years, if not more. Likely the same case with Australia and NZ. I hope I'm wrong, but I doubt that I am. United will need to find a way to re-deploy their international flying to less hostile countries, or shrink the fleet.
07-21-2021, 11:48 PM
#42
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2007
Position: EMB145
Posts: 772
It could happen. 
... on the snapshots.
For those new to watching vacancy bids, I'll caution you to not be sucked into believing that snapshots are anything close to the final award. This one's going to be especially volatile because it's so large a vacancy.
Be very careful about bidding 100% in any category because you could find yourself on reserve for years. And if anyone does happen to get 777 during probation year (I don't see that happening anytime soon) can expect to be on reserve for years even at the current hiring pace.
... on the snapshots.
For those new to watching vacancy bids, I'll caution you to not be sucked into believing that snapshots are anything close to the final award. This one's going to be especially volatile because it's so large a vacancy.
Be very careful about bidding 100% in any category because you could find yourself on reserve for years. And if anyone does happen to get 777 during probation year (I don't see that happening anytime soon) can expect to be on reserve for years even at the current hiring pace.
07-22-2021, 03:44 AM
#43
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2010
Posts: 3,123
Vaccines aren’t turning out to be the salvation that we thought they would be. Turn on the news and look at what’s going on in countries with comparable vaccination rates to the US - they are locking down again despite rising vaccination rates.
Many of the countries in Asia still think that one case of the virus is absolutely unacceptable and will remain in lockdown until it’s 0 within their borders, and they will go back into lockdown anytime the case count goes above 0.
Then go look at what’s going on in China, politically. They’re capitalizing on this as an opportunity to lock their country down and keep people out… doubt they’re going to be receptive to opening back up quickly when they can keep taking our money without letting us in.
Many of the countries in Asia still think that one case of the virus is absolutely unacceptable and will remain in lockdown until it’s 0 within their borders, and they will go back into lockdown anytime the case count goes above 0.
Then go look at what’s going on in China, politically. They’re capitalizing on this as an opportunity to lock their country down and keep people out… doubt they’re going to be receptive to opening back up quickly when they can keep taking our money without letting us in.
07-22-2021, 03:58 AM
#44
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2010
Position: EWR 777 Captain
Posts: 1,715
Porsche is 6 to 12 months behind because of chip shortages so you have to wait months just to get a right to order and then months more to actually get a car. Been on the list for a Boxster GTS 4.0 for 2 months now and still not even a firm purchase order yet, just on the "list" to get the OPTION to order.
Some bid . . . heh??!!
I like to think/hope that the company is paying attention and realizing that maybe they need to revamp reserve rules so you don't get this enormous spread on the BES lists everywhere. It's turning into a dual job where some are willing to sit reserve forever for a price whilst others just wait and wait and wait until they are senior before they move. I live in base and have 30 something guys below me on the 777 cap list and about 10 below me on the 787, but no way I'm sitting reserve for $4k a month with the current rules. Pay me for Field Standby or Short Calls and I'll think about it. But . . . pie in the sky most likely
Last edited by Sunvox; 07-22-2021 at 04:10 AM.
07-22-2021, 04:54 AM
#45
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2008
Position: Sleeping in the black swan’s nest.
Posts: 5,726
I like to think/hope that the company is paying attention and realizing that maybe they need to revamp reserve rules so you don't get this enormous spread on the BES lists everywhere. It's turning into a dual job where some are willing to sit reserve forever for a price whilst others just wait and wait and wait until they are senior before they move. I live in base and have 30 something guys below me on the 777 cap list and about 10 below me on the 787, but no way I'm sitting reserve for $4k a month with the current rules. Pay me for Field Standby or Short Calls and I'll think about it. But . . . pie in the sky most likely
07-22-2021, 05:25 AM
#46
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2010
Position: EWR 777 Captain
Posts: 1,715
Yeah, as a commuter it's really an easy decision or so I've been told, but now a local captain friend is telling me that WB reserve life for a local guy isn't so bad . . . who knows. As much as I hate all night flying, if the post COVID world returns to some sense of normal perhaps sitting at home on reserve and not being used too much might become the norm once again, and that would make the choice easy for a local guy.
Ah well, this bid sure makes for a lot of choices for a lot of people.
Ah well, this bid sure makes for a lot of choices for a lot of people.
07-22-2021, 07:45 AM
#47
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2016
Position: B777 CA
Posts: 149
The reserve rules are there to dis-incentivize commuting. It's not by accident. Those rules are intentional. They want the reserves in base to "take up the slack" so to speak. Reserves are sorta like a giant "shock absorber" cushioning the blow when the operation implodes. If you're not in base when the implosion occurs, then the reserves don't do the airline a lot of good....
07-22-2021, 07:52 AM
#48
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2009
Posts: 1,871
Vaccines aren’t turning out to be the salvation that we thought they would be. Turn on the news and look at what’s going on in countries with comparable vaccination rates to the US - they are locking down again despite rising vaccination rates.
Many of the countries in Asia still think that one case of the virus is absolutely unacceptable and will remain in lockdown until it’s 0 within their borders, and they will go back into lockdown anytime the case count goes above 0.
Then go look at what’s going on in China, politically. They’re capitalizing on this as an opportunity to lock their country down and keep people out… doubt they’re going to be receptive to opening back up quickly when they can keep taking our money without letting us in.
Many of the countries in Asia still think that one case of the virus is absolutely unacceptable and will remain in lockdown until it’s 0 within their borders, and they will go back into lockdown anytime the case count goes above 0.
Then go look at what’s going on in China, politically. They’re capitalizing on this as an opportunity to lock their country down and keep people out… doubt they’re going to be receptive to opening back up quickly when they can keep taking our money without letting us in.
07-22-2021, 07:57 AM
#49
Banned
Joined APC: Dec 2016
Posts: 170
You should go put your name on your local dealers list now.
Porsche is 6 to 12 months behind because of chip shortages so you have to wait months just to get a right to order and then months more to actually get a car. Been on the list for a Boxster GTS 4.0 for 2 months now and still not even a firm purchase order yet, just on the "list" to get the OPTION to order.
Some bid . . . heh??!!
I like to think/hope that the company is paying attention and realizing that maybe they need to revamp reserve rules so you don't get this enormous spread on the BES lists everywhere. It's turning into a dual job where some are willing to sit reserve forever for a price whilst others just wait and wait and wait until they are senior before they move. I live in base and have 30 something guys below me on the 777 cap list and about 10 below me on the 787, but no way I'm sitting reserve for $4k a month with the current rules. Pay me for Field Standby or Short Calls and I'll think about it. But . . . pie in the sky most likely
Porsche is 6 to 12 months behind because of chip shortages so you have to wait months just to get a right to order and then months more to actually get a car. Been on the list for a Boxster GTS 4.0 for 2 months now and still not even a firm purchase order yet, just on the "list" to get the OPTION to order.
Some bid . . . heh??!!
I like to think/hope that the company is paying attention and realizing that maybe they need to revamp reserve rules so you don't get this enormous spread on the BES lists everywhere. It's turning into a dual job where some are willing to sit reserve forever for a price whilst others just wait and wait and wait until they are senior before they move. I live in base and have 30 something guys below me on the 777 cap list and about 10 below me on the 787, but no way I'm sitting reserve for $4k a month with the current rules. Pay me for Field Standby or Short Calls and I'll think about it. But . . . pie in the sky most likely
07-22-2021, 08:04 AM
#50
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2009
Position: 787
Posts: 470
If you didn't previously own a GT3 good luck getting a 992 GT3...2022...He better go actually talk to a premium dealer about ordering one getting an allocation and placing an order are two different things in the porsche world...Im presently on the waiting list for the new GT4RS and I have a GT3...My dealer has no idea if I'll get an allocation...plus the car isn't actually released yet...number 4 on his list!
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