AxlF16

There has to be some very near term widebodies in the mix as well. SK has been clear (even pre-COVID) about his goals in a downturn - somehow screwing AA and taking international routes from struggling foreign carriers. IMO that was the purpose behind the LOA so I'm expecting him to show at least some of his cards.

Larry in TN

Me neither, but I'd like to see it.

Parking a large number of (suddenly very weight restricted) 50-seat jets combined with 88+ NSNB at UAL in exchange for 70 additional E175s at UX looks like a pretty good tradeoff to me. It would also significant improve the customer experience on routes served by smaller RJs which would be very popular with our passengers.

CLazarus

If the order turns out to be the largest in value, then it should have quite a few widebodies on top of the rumored NB numbers. When I first saw the articles leaking out I laughingly assumed it would be for hundreds of RJs.


After thinking it over, I'm not laughing anymore at the idea of the largest order in sheer numbers. So far as I know, our contract talks stalled pre-pandemic because we wouldn't budge on scope, and I think management might finally have gotten the memo. Our 320/319/700 fleet is getting very long in the tooth along with our -200/145 50 seaters (that Scott himself said were probably on the way out after the pandemic). Buying -7 Maxes to replace 319s/700 may be in the cards for commonality... but it doesn't solve management's increasingly dire 50 seater problem.


There is a case to be made for buying -195E2s to unlock scope too, but I am skeptical so I won't dig into it. On the other hand buying 88 A-220 100s to unlock more 175s could account for 160ish orders alone. And, there has long been speculation that a further stretch of the A-220 will happen eventually - it would be just about a perfect replacement for our 150 seat 320s. A-220 300s to replace 319s/700s and A-220 500s to replace 320s could add another hundred or more orders. I think the rumored MAXes will be ordered to cover domestic flying from 166-190 seats. Meanwhile due to Boeing's failures I think the ship has sailed on a direct 767 replacement, that the additional rumored XLRs at about 190 seats will cover most of the 767-300 flying (214 seats) and 787s will cover the rest. If we've found a way to ditch the 350s then perhaps we'll announce 777x orders, I'm sure Boeing is offering great prices. Or, perhaps we'll accelerate the 350s to replace our PW-777s.


Anyways, when I consider all of the above and how low prices must be right now, I think including RJs in the mix we could easily order more than 450 jets to be delivered over the next decade. Tuesday will tell.


Side note - I know the 175 E2 MTOW is too heavy for current scope. But I'm wondering if we'd repeat what we did with the CRJ-550 and buy them with fewer seats and a reduced MTOW. We generally wouldn't need all that range.

Half wing

With our current mainline fleet, in the next 10 years there will be a giant hole in seat count between 70/76 seats at express and our 737 Max 8’s at 166 seats. We could go with the Max 7 but that is a lot of eggs in the 737 basket. With 50 seaters going away soon my guess is they want to unlock more 70/76 seaters at express. Apart from being more expensive, a good 319/737-700 replacement airplane is the 220-300 at 130 seats. If they get the 220-100 for scope relief, they may as well get the 220-300. I think we’re looking at used 787’s right now. About 50 more of those would dovetail nicely with the soon to be outgoing 76’s and 772’s. What will it be, the Max 7 or A-220 product?

-side note. I’m glad the Boeing/Embraer deal fell through. I thought for sure we were going to end up with a bunch of POS 190/195E2’s. Maybe we still will.

Hedley

About the only people who wouldn’t like it are the employees of the 50 seat airlines. When the 50 seaters go, they’re in a rough spot. If we actually unlock the 70 rj’s, I don’t see United buying jets for either regional when Mesa, Republic, and SkyWest already fly them and would most likely offer to buy the jets in exchange for longer contracts. It would just be cheaper to let the 50 seat airlines go away. My guess is that they don’t order a SNB and just double down on the Max. Either way, working for a 50 seat airline is a scary place to be.

Larry in TN

They say they want to control the regional feed by using the UAX exclusive regionals but their actions haven't backed that up.

Will be interested to see if any orders are for the 737-7. That's what would be needed to replace the 737-700 and A319 if they are going to stay away from the NSNB.

Hedley

They could always require the additional aircraft to be staffed like Mesa does. The pilots fly exclusive for United, or they’re out of the Aviate program. If SkyWest wouldn’t agree, I bet Mesa would.

I don’t know where the price break for the max-7/8 is. It could be better to just buy the 800, carry a few empties and have room for expansion already in place. Our -700’s and 319’s are getting pretty old. I could also see where they decide to bring in the A220 to replace the 700’s/319’s for the small to medium lift requirements, and order more 321neo and 737 max to retire the 757’s and old 320’s. That’s a decision for management. The only voice we have is in how much the equipment pays.

Larry in TN

Unfortunately, we already have a pay rate for the E195E2 and it was set before we knew that it was going to be significantly larger than the E195. It is nearly the capacity of the A319/737-700 but pays like a large RJ. At least with the A220-300 we'd have to negotiate a new rate.

hamsandwich

we already have pay rates for the A220-300

Larry in TN

You're right. Same as the 737-700 and A319. I don't remember that being there before. Has it been there all along?

Anyway, big difference between the A220-300 and E195E2 rates, ~$55/hr on the Captain's side and ~$30/hr for F/Os.