The grass
09-29-2020, 10:29 AM
#21
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2013
Posts: 280
Viperstick,
Nobody knows what demand looks like for fall 2021, so both sides of the argument are a gamble. As far as I understand your train of thought, you are essentially calling Kirby‘s bluff on the 3900 number, because of the effect it would have on TK‘s ability to train. so in that scenario, perhaps seniority numbers 2850 to maybe 4500 from the bottom keep their full pay for another five months until their training center (seniority) equivalents can be furloughed.
I think this is one of the more interesting reasons to have voted no, however when I went down this rabbit hole, I think it would require a lot of cash burn for the months it took to train replacements… And would still result in the displacement of thousands of mid and upper tier pilots. If Scott Kirby had more years at the helm, I think perhaps he would have more leeway to gamble with staffing. As it is, I personally don’t think he would’ve had an option if he wanted to remain CEO, other than to right-size our staffing pretty quickly. Demand has been far more sluggish than anyone really predicted, so I personally do not think 3900 furloughs would’ve been enough… so more jobs would certainly have been on the table. As has been stated, TK‘s ability to train it’s really not as much of a bottleneck, when your block hours Are still hovering in the 30% of normal range.
I think you are right that we absolutely solve a problem for SK that does not benefit us… But I believe that the ability to get the company thinking more long-term again, will almost certainly decrease total furlough numbers and help us all avoid becoming UAL circa 2010. A lot of people closer to the center of this argument have stated that there are some glaring problems with the TA, I think you were absolutely right that the training issue was one of them…
Nobody knows what demand looks like for fall 2021, so both sides of the argument are a gamble. As far as I understand your train of thought, you are essentially calling Kirby‘s bluff on the 3900 number, because of the effect it would have on TK‘s ability to train. so in that scenario, perhaps seniority numbers 2850 to maybe 4500 from the bottom keep their full pay for another five months until their training center (seniority) equivalents can be furloughed.
I think this is one of the more interesting reasons to have voted no, however when I went down this rabbit hole, I think it would require a lot of cash burn for the months it took to train replacements… And would still result in the displacement of thousands of mid and upper tier pilots. If Scott Kirby had more years at the helm, I think perhaps he would have more leeway to gamble with staffing. As it is, I personally don’t think he would’ve had an option if he wanted to remain CEO, other than to right-size our staffing pretty quickly. Demand has been far more sluggish than anyone really predicted, so I personally do not think 3900 furloughs would’ve been enough… so more jobs would certainly have been on the table. As has been stated, TK‘s ability to train it’s really not as much of a bottleneck, when your block hours Are still hovering in the 30% of normal range.
I think you are right that we absolutely solve a problem for SK that does not benefit us… But I believe that the ability to get the company thinking more long-term again, will almost certainly decrease total furlough numbers and help us all avoid becoming UAL circa 2010. A lot of people closer to the center of this argument have stated that there are some glaring problems with the TA, I think you were absolutely right that the training issue was one of them…
In another post, I said exactly that--we should "call" Kirby's bluff. Yes, demand is currently in the crapper and is likely to remain so for awhile. However, we still need pilots to fly and the Guppy is our most prevalent airframe.
The Guppy TI manning is the true bottleneck. As you correctly identified, furloughing as deeply as threatened would have decimated Guppy TI manning and drawn out the movement of pilots from more senior fleets/seats to the Guppy and exacerbated cash burn. My argument all along has been Kirby could not have furloughed to the threatened 3900+ (perhaps not even to the WARNed 2850) without severely drawing out the retraining process--exactly why we have United pilots manning TK instructor positions. I believe what we actually did was trade away a contractual furlough protection (having line pilots staff TK who are under the furlough gun) to save near term furloughs in exchange for reduced MPG and the ability to run TK at full bore until the manning problem is solved. You've got the very junior part of the list now happy to keep their job for another eight months, but you just put a big target on the backs of those at the top of the bottom tier and the bottom of the middle tier for next summer that arguably either wouldn't have been there or would have been there later (and while still drawing full MPG in the meantime). Oh, and we just paid the carry cost for the unneeded pilots until next summer.
A theory? Yes, but I believe there's ample evidence to support this being more than the ravings of a lunatic. First, TK recently put out a job announcement for 30-50 new Guppy TIs, purportedly for the return of the MAX, but 30-50 is pretty close to the number of TIs that will be furloughed under recent threats. Second, the TA specifically incentivized Guppy (and Sparky) guys to downgrade to the other seat, rather than the Bus or 756, by offering pay freezes at their old seat rate. Why? Logically, to reduce the training footprint of these downgrading pilots and thus help TK throughput.
Ultimately, we'll find out if we won a big stupid prize next summer. We've already played the big stupid game.
09-29-2020, 10:37 AM
#22
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 181
summer flying? lol, you are either really optimistic or haven’t been paying attention these last few months... maybe I’ll buy that lotto ticket with ya.
09-29-2020, 10:46 AM
#23
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2006
Position: WB Bunkie
Posts: 1,246
Duvie,
In another post, I said exactly that--we should "call" Kirby's bluff. Yes, demand is currently in the crapper and is likely to remain so for awhile. However, we still need pilots to fly and the Guppy is our most prevalent airframe.
The Guppy TI manning is the true bottleneck. As you correctly identified, furloughing as deeply as threatened would have decimated Guppy TI manning and drawn out the movement of pilots from more senior fleets/seats to the Guppy and exacerbated cash burn. My argument all along has been Kirby could not have furloughed to the threatened 3900+ (perhaps not even to the WARNed 2850) without severely drawing out the retraining process--exactly why we have United pilots manning TK instructor positions. I believe what we actually did was trade away a contractual furlough protection (having line pilots staff TK who are under the furlough gun) to save near term furloughs in exchange for reduced MPG and the ability to run TK at full bore until the manning problem is solved. You've got the very junior part of the list now happy to keep their job for another eight months, but you just put a big target on the backs of those at the top of the bottom tier and the bottom of the middle tier for next summer that arguably either wouldn't have been there or would have been there later (and while still drawing full MPG in the meantime). Oh, and we just paid the carry cost for the unneeded pilots until next summer.
A theory? Yes, but I believe there's ample evidence to support this being more than the ravings of a lunatic. First, TK recently put out a job announcement for 30-50 new Guppy TIs, purportedly for the return of the MAX, but 30-50 is pretty close to the number of TIs that will be furloughed under recent threats. Second, the TA specifically incentivized Guppy (and Sparky) guys to downgrade to the other seat, rather than the Bus or 756, by offering pay freezes at their old seat rate. Why? Logically, to reduce the training footprint of these downgrading pilots and thus help TK throughput.
Ultimately, we'll find out if we won a big stupid prize next summer. We've already played the big stupid game.
In another post, I said exactly that--we should "call" Kirby's bluff. Yes, demand is currently in the crapper and is likely to remain so for awhile. However, we still need pilots to fly and the Guppy is our most prevalent airframe.
The Guppy TI manning is the true bottleneck. As you correctly identified, furloughing as deeply as threatened would have decimated Guppy TI manning and drawn out the movement of pilots from more senior fleets/seats to the Guppy and exacerbated cash burn. My argument all along has been Kirby could not have furloughed to the threatened 3900+ (perhaps not even to the WARNed 2850) without severely drawing out the retraining process--exactly why we have United pilots manning TK instructor positions. I believe what we actually did was trade away a contractual furlough protection (having line pilots staff TK who are under the furlough gun) to save near term furloughs in exchange for reduced MPG and the ability to run TK at full bore until the manning problem is solved. You've got the very junior part of the list now happy to keep their job for another eight months, but you just put a big target on the backs of those at the top of the bottom tier and the bottom of the middle tier for next summer that arguably either wouldn't have been there or would have been there later (and while still drawing full MPG in the meantime). Oh, and we just paid the carry cost for the unneeded pilots until next summer.
A theory? Yes, but I believe there's ample evidence to support this being more than the ravings of a lunatic. First, TK recently put out a job announcement for 30-50 new Guppy TIs, purportedly for the return of the MAX, but 30-50 is pretty close to the number of TIs that will be furloughed under recent threats. Second, the TA specifically incentivized Guppy (and Sparky) guys to downgrade to the other seat, rather than the Bus or 756, by offering pay freezes at their old seat rate. Why? Logically, to reduce the training footprint of these downgrading pilots and thus help TK throughput.
Ultimately, we'll find out if we won a big stupid prize next summer. We've already played the big stupid game.
09-29-2020, 10:50 AM
#24
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
Duvie,
In another post, I said exactly that--we should "call" Kirby's bluff. Yes, demand is currently in the crapper and is likely to remain so for awhile. However, we still need pilots to fly and the Guppy is our most prevalent airframe.
The Guppy TI manning is the true bottleneck. As you correctly identified, furloughing as deeply as threatened would have decimated Guppy TI manning and drawn out the movement of pilots from more senior fleets/seats to the Guppy and exacerbated cash burn. My argument all along has been Kirby could not have furloughed to the threatened 3900+ (perhaps not even to the WARNed 2850) without severely drawing out the retraining process--exactly why we have United pilots manning TK instructor positions. I believe what we actually did was trade away a contractual furlough protection (having line pilots staff TK who are under the furlough gun) to save near term furloughs in exchange for reduced MPG and the ability to run TK at full bore until the manning problem is solved. You've got the very junior part of the list now happy to keep their job for another eight months, but you just put a big target on the backs of those at the top of the bottom tier and the bottom of the middle tier for next summer that arguably either wouldn't have been there or would have been there later (and while still drawing full MPG in the meantime). Oh, and we just paid the carry cost for the unneeded pilots until next summer.
A theory? Yes, but I believe there's ample evidence to support this being more than the ravings of a lunatic. First, TK recently put out a job announcement for 30-50 new Guppy TIs, purportedly for the return of the MAX, but 30-50 is pretty close to the number of TIs that will be furloughed under recent threats. Second, the TA specifically incentivized Guppy (and Sparky) guys to downgrade to the other seat, rather than the Bus or 756, by offering pay freezes at their old seat rate. Why? Logically, to reduce the training footprint of these downgrading pilots and thus help TK throughput.
Ultimately, we'll find out if we won a big stupid prize next summer. We've already played the big stupid game.
In another post, I said exactly that--we should "call" Kirby's bluff. Yes, demand is currently in the crapper and is likely to remain so for awhile. However, we still need pilots to fly and the Guppy is our most prevalent airframe.
The Guppy TI manning is the true bottleneck. As you correctly identified, furloughing as deeply as threatened would have decimated Guppy TI manning and drawn out the movement of pilots from more senior fleets/seats to the Guppy and exacerbated cash burn. My argument all along has been Kirby could not have furloughed to the threatened 3900+ (perhaps not even to the WARNed 2850) without severely drawing out the retraining process--exactly why we have United pilots manning TK instructor positions. I believe what we actually did was trade away a contractual furlough protection (having line pilots staff TK who are under the furlough gun) to save near term furloughs in exchange for reduced MPG and the ability to run TK at full bore until the manning problem is solved. You've got the very junior part of the list now happy to keep their job for another eight months, but you just put a big target on the backs of those at the top of the bottom tier and the bottom of the middle tier for next summer that arguably either wouldn't have been there or would have been there later (and while still drawing full MPG in the meantime). Oh, and we just paid the carry cost for the unneeded pilots until next summer.
A theory? Yes, but I believe there's ample evidence to support this being more than the ravings of a lunatic. First, TK recently put out a job announcement for 30-50 new Guppy TIs, purportedly for the return of the MAX, but 30-50 is pretty close to the number of TIs that will be furloughed under recent threats. Second, the TA specifically incentivized Guppy (and Sparky) guys to downgrade to the other seat, rather than the Bus or 756, by offering pay freezes at their old seat rate. Why? Logically, to reduce the training footprint of these downgrading pilots and thus help TK throughput.
Ultimately, we'll find out if we won a big stupid prize next summer. We've already played the big stupid game.
09-29-2020, 10:56 AM
#25
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
Covid numbers have been in a decline. OK, Europe's increased a bit but overall things are slowly getting better. We'll see how things go this winter, but if it's not a huge increase, I could see where a lot of pent up demand for travel takes place next summer.
But yes, I could just be an Eeyore and point out how bad Covid is. If I were 70+, I'd be more concerned about Covid but it's already run through our house without any funerals or overnight hospital stays.
10-02-2020, 12:57 PM
#26
New Hire
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Posts: 3
Knee pad shortage
Word is out that knee pads are in short supply. Apparently, there’s been a run on this commodity by thousands of airline pilots and their CEO’s begging on bended knees for a continuation of uncle sugar’s financial aid. By all means, let the taxpayer support the lifestyle you have been accustomed to since in your eyes you are essential to the public.
Here’s what is essential for everyday requirements and life. The garbage collector, power supply and water distribution, farmers, ranchers and workers that toil in the fields to feed us. Truck drivers that distribute the processed foodstuffs and essentials like toilet paper. How about fire and police protection and most of all, medical healthcare workers. And let’s not forget the postal service, and certainly the grocery store workers who are essential to stocking and selling the groceries.
My last commercial flight was in February returning from a dive trip. Diving is fun and I miss the three or four trips out of country to pursue this sport but it’s not essential to my wellbeing. In fact, not dealing with airports, airlines, fat people in skinny seats and other negative aspects of commercial flying, has demonstrated that not participating in dive trips is much of a sacrifice.
In the early 80’s I was furloughed for nearly five years, in fact, the whole group of us that were hired in the late 70’s, eventually received our walking papers. We did not get federal financial aid nor expect it. We weren’t considered essential then nor is it now. In this industry sh!t happens! To mitigate this development, you did what any patriotic American did... go out and find another job. It might even require dusting off the resume and pursuing something besides flying.
Back then, the global slowdown took years to recover and I anticipate this one will also. As of now, the American traveler is not welcome in most countries because of our mishandling of the Covid virus. Throwing billions more of taxpayers' money at the airlines will be another example of Federal mishandling.
Here’s what is essential for everyday requirements and life. The garbage collector, power supply and water distribution, farmers, ranchers and workers that toil in the fields to feed us. Truck drivers that distribute the processed foodstuffs and essentials like toilet paper. How about fire and police protection and most of all, medical healthcare workers. And let’s not forget the postal service, and certainly the grocery store workers who are essential to stocking and selling the groceries.
My last commercial flight was in February returning from a dive trip. Diving is fun and I miss the three or four trips out of country to pursue this sport but it’s not essential to my wellbeing. In fact, not dealing with airports, airlines, fat people in skinny seats and other negative aspects of commercial flying, has demonstrated that not participating in dive trips is much of a sacrifice.
In the early 80’s I was furloughed for nearly five years, in fact, the whole group of us that were hired in the late 70’s, eventually received our walking papers. We did not get federal financial aid nor expect it. We weren’t considered essential then nor is it now. In this industry sh!t happens! To mitigate this development, you did what any patriotic American did... go out and find another job. It might even require dusting off the resume and pursuing something besides flying.
Back then, the global slowdown took years to recover and I anticipate this one will also. As of now, the American traveler is not welcome in most countries because of our mishandling of the Covid virus. Throwing billions more of taxpayers' money at the airlines will be another example of Federal mishandling.
10-02-2020, 01:59 PM
#27
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2009
Posts: 5,266
Word is out that knee pads are in short supply. Apparently, there’s been a run on this commodity by thousands of airline pilots and their CEO’s begging on bended knees for a continuation of uncle sugar’s financial aid. By all means, let the taxpayer support the lifestyle you have been accustomed to since in your eyes you are essential to the public.
Here’s what is essential for everyday requirements and life. The garbage collector, power supply and water distribution, farmers, ranchers and workers that toil in the fields to feed us. Truck drivers that distribute the processed foodstuffs and essentials like toilet paper. How about fire and police protection and most of all, medical healthcare workers. And let’s not forget the postal service, and certainly the grocery store workers who are essential to stocking and selling the groceries.
My last commercial flight was in February returning from a dive trip. Diving is fun and I miss the three or four trips out of country to pursue this sport but it’s not essential to my wellbeing. In fact, not dealing with airports, airlines, fat people in skinny seats and other negative aspects of commercial flying, has demonstrated that not participating in dive trips is much of a sacrifice.
In the early 80’s I was furloughed for nearly five years, in fact, the whole group of us that were hired in the late 70’s, eventually received our walking papers. We did not get federal financial aid nor expect it. We weren’t considered essential then nor is it now. In this industry sh!t happens! To mitigate this development, you did what any patriotic American did... go out and find another job. It might even require dusting off the resume and pursuing something besides flying.
Back then, the global slowdown took years to recover and I anticipate this one will also. As of now, the American traveler is not welcome in most countries because of our mishandling of the Covid virus. Throwing billions more of taxpayers' money at the airlines will be another example of Federal mishandling.
Here’s what is essential for everyday requirements and life. The garbage collector, power supply and water distribution, farmers, ranchers and workers that toil in the fields to feed us. Truck drivers that distribute the processed foodstuffs and essentials like toilet paper. How about fire and police protection and most of all, medical healthcare workers. And let’s not forget the postal service, and certainly the grocery store workers who are essential to stocking and selling the groceries.
My last commercial flight was in February returning from a dive trip. Diving is fun and I miss the three or four trips out of country to pursue this sport but it’s not essential to my wellbeing. In fact, not dealing with airports, airlines, fat people in skinny seats and other negative aspects of commercial flying, has demonstrated that not participating in dive trips is much of a sacrifice.
In the early 80’s I was furloughed for nearly five years, in fact, the whole group of us that were hired in the late 70’s, eventually received our walking papers. We did not get federal financial aid nor expect it. We weren’t considered essential then nor is it now. In this industry sh!t happens! To mitigate this development, you did what any patriotic American did... go out and find another job. It might even require dusting off the resume and pursuing something besides flying.
Back then, the global slowdown took years to recover and I anticipate this one will also. As of now, the American traveler is not welcome in most countries because of our mishandling of the Covid virus. Throwing billions more of taxpayers' money at the airlines will be another example of Federal mishandling.
None of the things you listed are essential, billions of people around the globe live without them every day. However since you've been gone... the aerospace and air transport sector has become one of the biggest drivers in our our national GDP. You also may have noticed something else you never saw back in the 70's and 80's... an incredible safety record, and profitability.
The Gov't broke it, they can fix it. Or they can let all the people who pay taxes and fund the gov't go out of work, and I'm not just talking airlines. I'm sure you were just as vocal about the auto industry being left to die back in 2008 too.
10-02-2020, 08:19 PM
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2014
Position: 787 right
Posts: 504
Word is out that knee pads are in short supply. Apparently, there’s been a run on this commodity by thousands of airline pilots and their CEO’s begging on bended knees for a continuation of uncle sugar’s financial aid. By all means, let the taxpayer support the lifestyle you have been accustomed to since in your eyes you are essential to the public.
Here’s what is essential for everyday requirements and life. The garbage collector, power supply and water distribution, farmers, ranchers and workers that toil in the fields to feed us. Truck drivers that distribute the processed foodstuffs and essentials like toilet paper. How about fire and police protection and most of all, medical healthcare workers. And let’s not forget the postal service, and certainly the grocery store workers who are essential to stocking and selling the groceries.
My last commercial flight was in February returning from a dive trip. Diving is fun and I miss the three or four trips out of country to pursue this sport but it’s not essential to my wellbeing. In fact, not dealing with airports, airlines, fat people in skinny seats and other negative aspects of commercial flying, has demonstrated that not participating in dive trips is much of a sacrifice.
In the early 80’s I was furloughed for nearly five years, in fact, the whole group of us that were hired in the late 70’s, eventually received our walking papers. We did not get federal financial aid nor expect it. We weren’t considered essential then nor is it now. In this industry sh!t happens! To mitigate this development, you did what any patriotic American did... go out and find another job. It might even require dusting off the resume and pursuing something besides flying.
Back then, the global slowdown took years to recover and I anticipate this one will also. As of now, the American traveler is not welcome in most countries because of our mishandling of the Covid virus. Throwing billions more of taxpayers' money at the airlines will be another example of Federal mishandling.
Here’s what is essential for everyday requirements and life. The garbage collector, power supply and water distribution, farmers, ranchers and workers that toil in the fields to feed us. Truck drivers that distribute the processed foodstuffs and essentials like toilet paper. How about fire and police protection and most of all, medical healthcare workers. And let’s not forget the postal service, and certainly the grocery store workers who are essential to stocking and selling the groceries.
My last commercial flight was in February returning from a dive trip. Diving is fun and I miss the three or four trips out of country to pursue this sport but it’s not essential to my wellbeing. In fact, not dealing with airports, airlines, fat people in skinny seats and other negative aspects of commercial flying, has demonstrated that not participating in dive trips is much of a sacrifice.
In the early 80’s I was furloughed for nearly five years, in fact, the whole group of us that were hired in the late 70’s, eventually received our walking papers. We did not get federal financial aid nor expect it. We weren’t considered essential then nor is it now. In this industry sh!t happens! To mitigate this development, you did what any patriotic American did... go out and find another job. It might even require dusting off the resume and pursuing something besides flying.
Back then, the global slowdown took years to recover and I anticipate this one will also. As of now, the American traveler is not welcome in most countries because of our mishandling of the Covid virus. Throwing billions more of taxpayers' money at the airlines will be another example of Federal mishandling.
10-02-2020, 09:21 PM
#29
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2009
Posts: 5,266
Yes, we know our grandkids will be paying off these government bailouts(in your case your great, great grand kids) but an airline bailout puts food on our tables and keeps us solvent. Sorry you didn’t receive any bailout money but as a previous airline pilot yourself, one would think you would support a bill to keep airline employees working. Your comments are out of touch and irrelevant. Thank you though for your sentiment that we should just be furloughed because you were once furloughed and because you now think it is for the greater good.
His generation passed the buck on to their own offspring. Most selfish generation squandered one of the most prosperous times in modern history, and enriched themselves off debts their kids get to pay. Don’t let their feigning concern fool you.
For the record binthere... I was a no voter, but your generation should be the last to lecture about self interest and the greater good.
10-03-2020, 01:44 AM
#30
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Position: CRJ9 CA
Posts: 4,083
TSA numbers went up most of the summer. They're now stalled at a plateau. However, people are tired of being stuck inside the house.
Covid numbers have been in a decline. OK, Europe's increased a bit but overall things are slowly getting better. We'll see how things go this winter, but if it's not a huge increase, I could see where a lot of pent up demand for travel takes place next summer.
But yes, I could just be an Eeyore and point out how bad Covid is. If I were 70+, I'd be more concerned about Covid but it's already run through our house without any funerals or overnight hospital stays.
Covid numbers have been in a decline. OK, Europe's increased a bit but overall things are slowly getting better. We'll see how things go this winter, but if it's not a huge increase, I could see where a lot of pent up demand for travel takes place next summer.
But yes, I could just be an Eeyore and point out how bad Covid is. If I were 70+, I'd be more concerned about Covid but it's already run through our house without any funerals or overnight hospital stays.
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