The grass
09-28-2020, 10:46 AM
#12
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2008
Position: 787 Captain
Posts: 1,512
As to your situation, I believe your timeline is correct.
09-28-2020, 12:45 PM
#13
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2009
Position: Same Day, 1/2 Pay
Posts: 48
Passing this TA will keep pilots furloughed even longer when they are finally furloughed. You will have a very large number of senior pilots and pilots not pay protected that will pick up open time when the flying does come back. Their rationale will be, “I already gave to the junior pilots”. Thus keeping pilots on the streets longer. Have seen this movie before. You will have another large number of pilots hoping they do furlough in June so this TA gets thrown out. How’s that for you? Now hoping they furlough so your paycheck can be restored. People won’t admit that out loud, but they will they think it. Grass isn’t always greener on the other side.
UAL will definitely be furloughing as many as they can in June 2021.
09-28-2020, 02:55 PM
#14
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Joined APC: May 2006
Position: WB Bunkie
Posts: 1,246
will this TA save all furloughs? No. How many furloughs would you need to see CXed to call this a win?
09-28-2020, 04:54 PM
#15
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Joined APC: Nov 2009
Posts: 5,266
Agreed, but this will help the company staff to their desired end state much quicker. This will result in 4000+ furloughs next June, not 2006. The beauty of this for Kirby is that we will pay to get him out of his training conundrum. We are about to win a big stupid prize for playing a big stupid game.
09-29-2020, 12:43 AM
#17
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
Agreed, but this will help the company staff to their desired end state much quicker. This will result in 4000+ furloughs next June, not 2006. The beauty of this for Kirby is that we will pay to get him out of his training conundrum. We are about to win a big stupid prize for playing a big stupid game.
09-29-2020, 09:13 AM
#19
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Joined APC: Aug 2013
Posts: 280
Whatever demand is, that's the number to which the company will staff. They'll have everyone trained where they need them. If summer flying requires a few more pilots, 1 Jun 2021 = 90 days out WARN notice for a sub-2006 seniority pilot's 1 Sep 2021 furlough, after summer flying is complete.
09-29-2020, 09:36 AM
#20
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2006
Position: WB Bunkie
Posts: 1,246
Whatever demand is, that's the number to which the company will staff. They'll have everyone trained where they need them. If summer flying requires a few more pilots, 1 Jun 2021 = 90 days out WARN notice for a sub-2006 seniority pilot's 1 Sep 2021 furlough, after summer flying is complete.
Nobody knows what demand looks like for fall 2021, so both sides of the argument are a gamble. As far as I understand your train of thought, you are essentially calling Kirby‘s bluff on the 3900 number, because of the effect it would have on TK‘s ability to train. so in that scenario, perhaps seniority numbers 2850 to maybe 4500 from the bottom keep their full pay for another five months until their training center (seniority) equivalents can be furloughed.
I think this is one of the more interesting reasons to have voted no, however when I went down this rabbit hole, I think it would require a lot of cash burn for the months it took to train replacements… And would still result in the displacement of thousands of mid and upper tier pilots. If Scott Kirby had more years at the helm, I think perhaps he would have more leeway to gamble with staffing. As it is, I personally don’t think he would’ve had an option if he wanted to remain CEO, other than to right-size our staffing pretty quickly. Demand has been far more sluggish than anyone really predicted, so I personally do not think 3900 furloughs would’ve been enough… so more jobs would certainly have been on the table. As has been stated, TK‘s ability to train it’s really not as much of a bottleneck, when your block hours Are still hovering in the 30% of normal range.
I think you are right that we absolutely solve a problem for SK that does not benefit us… But I believe that the ability to get the company thinking more long-term again, will almost certainly decrease total furlough numbers and help us all avoid becoming UAL circa 2010. A lot of people closer to the center of this argument have stated that there are some glaring problems with the TA, I think you were absolutely right that the training issue was one of them…
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