Hold My Bier
08-28-2020, 08:42 AM
#31
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Position: CRJ FO
Posts: 653
From the Q2 ir:
While the revenue decline exceeded the cut in cost by 18%, it doesn’t paint the whole picture . 2019 revenue yielded record profits. The margin to break even is not 18%, it lower. Is management looking to break even, make a profit, or slow the bleeding enough to get to a recovery? So far I think we know the answer.
- Reduced total operating costs by 69% versus the second quarter of 2019; excluding special charges3, reduced operating costs by 54%.
- Total operating revenues were down 87.1% year-over-year, on an 87.8 percent decrease in capacity year-over-year.
While the revenue decline exceeded the cut in cost by 18%, it doesn’t paint the whole picture . 2019 revenue yielded record profits. The margin to break even is not 18%, it lower. Is management looking to break even, make a profit, or slow the bleeding enough to get to a recovery? So far I think we know the answer.
08-28-2020, 08:43 AM
#32
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2011
Position: Airbus button pusher
Posts: 2,448
Mitch I don’t have the time time respond to your huge post but I’ll try later. For now, we don’t have to retire aircraft to keep them parked in ROW Indefinitely. Right now our 777 fleet and 767 fleet are as good as gone until they are need again consider them retired. The company is just keeping the asset.
and as far as why DL and AA are furloughing smaller numbers? Because they mitigated more furloughs than we did. DL early outed 1800 pilots we got 500 IF they all sign the waiver. It’s not a big conspiracy, we just had a more restrictive mitigation. Blame the union, blame the company, blame the pilots that didn’t take it. Doesn’t really matter....our furlough numbers went UP because not enough people voluntarily left, 3000-4000 pilots are leaving all three majors one way or another.
and as far as why DL and AA are furloughing smaller numbers? Because they mitigated more furloughs than we did. DL early outed 1800 pilots we got 500 IF they all sign the waiver. It’s not a big conspiracy, we just had a more restrictive mitigation. Blame the union, blame the company, blame the pilots that didn’t take it. Doesn’t really matter....our furlough numbers went UP because not enough people voluntarily left, 3000-4000 pilots are leaving all three majors one way or another.
08-28-2020, 08:45 AM
#33
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
From the Q2 ir:
While the revenue decline exceeded the cut in cost by 18%, it doesn’t paint the whole picture . 2019 revenue yielded record profits. The margin to break even is not 18%, it lower. Is management looking to break even, make a profit, or slow the bleeding enough to get to a recovery? So far I think we know the answer.
- Reduced total operating costs by 69% versus the second quarter of 2019; excluding special charges3, reduced operating costs by 54%.
- Total operating revenues were down 87.1% year-over-year, on an 87.8 percent decrease in capacity year-over-year.
While the revenue decline exceeded the cut in cost by 18%, it doesn’t paint the whole picture . 2019 revenue yielded record profits. The margin to break even is not 18%, it lower. Is management looking to break even, make a profit, or slow the bleeding enough to get to a recovery? So far I think we know the answer.
08-28-2020, 08:47 AM
#34
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Position: CRJ FO
Posts: 653
It looks like PSP money was not included in the cash burn according to the ir.
08-28-2020, 08:52 AM
#35
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Position: CRJ FO
Posts: 653
Now will the winter be worse than q2? Maybe. Travel slumps in the winter historically. But there are also multiple vaccines on the horizon slated for a winter release that may have a positive impact on travel.
08-28-2020, 09:06 AM
#37
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
Not sure how things are worse now? The ir is a look back at the q2 result. A period that had lower tsa numbers than today. And by their own admission PSP proceeds were not included in the cash burn.
Now will the winter be worse than q2? Maybe. Travel slumps in the winter historically. But there are also multiple vaccines on the horizon slated for a winter release that may have a positive impact on travel.
Now will the winter be worse than q2? Maybe. Travel slumps in the winter historically. But there are also multiple vaccines on the horizon slated for a winter release that may have a positive impact on travel.
So the $25M/day cash burn in Q3 will end up being too optimistic.
You're glossing over other problems that are starting to surface. Take a look at loan delinquencies. Main street is showing severe economic distress.
https://www.mba.org/2020-press-relea...%20Delinquency
Note: The nearly 4 percentage point jump in the delinquency rate was the biggest quarterly rise in the history of MBA's survey,
Worst increase in the history of MBA's survey. That goes back to 1990.
08-28-2020, 09:18 AM
#39
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2019
Posts: 432
I would love to believe that would be the case. However I don’t have the confidence in the usual suspects giving it a rest. That big 🟢 next to a trip is like crack for too many pilots.
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