Hold My Bier
08-28-2020, 05:19 AM
#21
777 - ret
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Position: Waco CG-4 center seat
Posts: 863
I certainly understand the emotion.
All of the airlines are in uncharted territory ... territory that makes 9/11 look like the proverbial cake walk.
Having the most wide body/international exposure, It's no surprise that UAL is taking the biggest hit.
What is happening now is based on what hasn't happened in the last few months ... a sustainable recovery of any description.
They can only manage based on their best guess ... that guess is looking less and less optimistic.
If if things don't improve there will be more pain.
Keeping my fingers crossed.
All of the airlines are in uncharted territory ... territory that makes 9/11 look like the proverbial cake walk.
Having the most wide body/international exposure, It's no surprise that UAL is taking the biggest hit.
What is happening now is based on what hasn't happened in the last few months ... a sustainable recovery of any description.
They can only manage based on their best guess ... that guess is looking less and less optimistic.
If if things don't improve there will be more pain.
Keeping my fingers crossed.
08-28-2020, 05:48 AM
#23
On Reserve
Joined APC: Aug 2009
Position: 757/767 First Officer
Posts: 24
From what I understand it is multiple issues facing cash burn. The government cheese didn’t pay for all payroll expenses, and it required that service to previous markets be maintained. The money significantly reduced the burn, but other expenses such as aircraft lease payments, gates, slots...... roll on. If there is another round of govt. money, I can see some of those restrictions lifted. The airlines will argue that they need to be completely maintained, or they must be allowed to adjust their staffing and route structure to get the cost under control. The short answer to your question is yes. If the taxpayer does not pay airline labor cost, the airlines will be faced with either throwing gasoline on the cash burn, or slashing payroll starting Oct 1.
That’s not true. Cares payroll support was based on I believe Q3 2019 numbers. We have probably 3/4ths of our pilot group who have gone from line holders to reserve, a drastic reduction in premium pay and less short calls for reserves. That is only OUR employee group. How many FA’s, rampers or CSR’s do you think have gotten overtime? Part time CSR’s who worked 24-32 hours a week in IAH have been reduced to a day a week. So the payroll support probably HAS covered ALL of the companies payroll.
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08-28-2020, 07:26 AM
#24
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2012
Position: 737 FO
Posts: 328
Does the current cash burn rate account for the Payroll Support? As in, after October 1st does cash burn go back up?
And I agree, I think a trip to the courts is in store for all 3 legacies by next summer. Further government grants and loans will likely just push the time frame out that some airlines file.
And I agree, I think a trip to the courts is in store for all 3 legacies by next summer. Further government grants and loans will likely just push the time frame out that some airlines file.
08-28-2020, 07:53 AM
#25
Banned
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Position: 756 Left Side
Posts: 1,629
Motch I get what you are saying bud. Here’s the deal though, what are our FINAL furlough numbers? The day we recall that first pilot the union AND the company will say this is a great victory for the bottom 500-600 pilots that didn’t get furloughed. We successfully saved their job. We can all clap and feel good about a job well done.
I have no doubt that we successfully mitigated furloughs, but from what seniority number? I haven’t a clue.....
I have no doubt that we successfully mitigated furloughs, but from what seniority number? I haven’t a clue.....
Then we had the first Displacement bid (20-07) that showed 4457 followed by the "adjustment" to 4148 a few weeks later.
Unlike our competitors who offered Early Outs right off the bat, we did the opposite.
But once we finally did, it was limited to the smallest subset of pilots.. again, opposite of what the others did.
To make it worse, both the union and the company touted that it would save jobs. But we had already heard from PC that the 63 & 64 aged pilots had already been factored into the furlough numbers.
Left and right the "Furlough" numbers keep getting adjusted. And in the wrong way.
If the number IS 3900, then the company should have been honest and stated that.
No one (especially not I) is arguing the fact that furloughs are coming on 1 Oct. We all knew that (at some point). But what we didn't know is that our furlough mitigation would result in MORE furloughs, not less. At this rate, if/when CA2 comes around, we will probably announce added furloughs!
AA, DL and UA all got the same amount of people off their list, in fact DL got rid of more. We just each took a different route to get there.
DL - Early Out + furloughs = 3600-3700
AA - Early Out + forced empty lines + furloughs = 3200-3300
UA - EARLY Out + LOAs + furloughs = 3300 -3400
UA furloughed more because our EO was more restrictive and that’s just what it is.......without the EO I have no doubt that today’s CCS message would have said 3400 furloughs.
DL - Early Out + furloughs = 3600-3700
AA - Early Out + forced empty lines + furloughs = 3200-3300
UA - EARLY Out + LOAs + furloughs = 3300 -3400
UA furloughed more because our EO was more restrictive and that’s just what it is.......without the EO I have no doubt that today’s CCS message would have said 3400 furloughs.
DL announced they were 2558 pilots "over" a while back. From that number, they are now furloughing 1941. They also announced the retirement of roughly 191 aircraft. Retirements, not parked. (18 777, and all their MD88's/90's)
AA never announced how many pilots they were fat... at least, I can't find it. But they did announce the retirement of 145 aircraft and they are furloughing 2127 pilots.
And then there's Maude (you youngsters will have to look that one up)
We started the silly season by announcing a 30% smaller airline.. followed by the mega displacement bid (20-07D) and a surplus of 4457 pilots (if you can believe the Min/Max) followed by the adjustment down to 4158.
But never did I see a number from the company of an actual potential furlough number. Yes, I read 3900 pilots from numerous social media posts but again, never a hard number from the company..
(And that 3900 number came from people doing a reduction of 30% from the total pilot count.. not active pilots)
Until-
July 8th. That was the date that the company announced 2250 Potential Furloughs. And the union sent out a BlastMail.
No announcement of fleet retirements, no announcement that their could be more furloughs than the initial 2250 but there was an announcement of -
ALPA has been intensely focused on securing an early-out package that will mitigate furloughs by incentivizing pilots to retire early. We are also finalizing provisions for Voluntary Furloughs and Company Offered Leaves of Absences (COLAs) for those pilots willing to temporarily step back from active flying. An MEC review of these voluntary programs is expected soon, and we believe they will offer significant mitigation.
United is furloughing more because THAT is what the company wants to do.. to create an environment of fear within the pilot group, to push for concessions from the union, and to divide this group for future contract negotiations.
Keep in mind, we have announced NOT ONE aircraft retirement.
At this point, not sure why management just doesn't send out 13000+ WARN Notices.
I’m not a shill for UAL Management, nor am I advocating to negotiate a contract in public. What I am stating is this, if you think this is all some sort of conspiracy to get contract cuts, we’ll think again. All the airlines across the entire globe are failing because there is just a fraction of the customers there used to be.
What I find reprehensible is how some want to find where the end of the ladder is to protect themselves from “pay cuts,” and “the future of the profession.”
I have no idea when the customers will return and neither do any of you. Being furloughed in this environment is far different than any other time in pilot history.
What I find reprehensible is how some want to find where the end of the ladder is to protect themselves from “pay cuts,” and “the future of the profession.”
I have no idea when the customers will return and neither do any of you. Being furloughed in this environment is far different than any other time in pilot history.
When you say "All the airlines are failing" can you explain to me why I saw 5 Spirit Jets at EWR the other day... How Spirit and JetBlue have stated they are avoiding furloughs since they agreed to furlough mitigations (Concessions?!). Mind you, those are 2 ALPA carriers too.
And if Delta and American are failing too, wonder how they are able to keep more pilots employed? How they decided early on to retire aircraft and offer Early Outs to mitigate cuts..
You are right, no one knows (anymore) when this will end. But we do know it will.
But I am left wondering why we have gone in such a different direction then our 2 main competitors, and also some of the other carriers we compete with.
This is not about me and protecting myself. Learned 4 valuable lessons as a young guardsman from one of the old timers in the squadron-
Don't cheat on your taxes, Don't get divorced, Don't commute and Don't live on a Capt's salary when you are on the bottom of the list! Taken a 30% paycut over the past 5 months and living with it. And if I get furloughed next year.. so be it. I will receive 4.5 months of furlough pay.. and I'll look for a new job while collecting. Then there's unemployment and savings...
It's not about me, it's about the added 600 pilots, it's about the hundreds of pilots who had their dates moved up. It's about this entire pilot group and what is being done to us.
No conspiracy.. but management is playing a head game with us.
No, it's not about being company cheerleaders. It's being able to read the data without wearing rose colored glasses.
Passenger traffic hasn't recovered.
I asked you about cash burn rates. Do you know current cash burn? The company put $25M/day in their forecast for Q3. But that was based on better traffic numbers than what we've had in Q3.
Do you know what the Q2 cash burn rate was? $40M/day.
Odds are that Q3's burn rate is somewhere between those numbers.
That kind of cash burn rate needs to be reduced or this company is going to need to file for bankruptcy by next summer. And if the cash burn rate remains that high, I wouldn't count on United emerging from bankruptcy.
It's not that hard to read a financial report. Spend some time learning how to read one.
Passenger traffic hasn't recovered.
I asked you about cash burn rates. Do you know current cash burn? The company put $25M/day in their forecast for Q3. But that was based on better traffic numbers than what we've had in Q3.
Do you know what the Q2 cash burn rate was? $40M/day.
Odds are that Q3's burn rate is somewhere between those numbers.
That kind of cash burn rate needs to be reduced or this company is going to need to file for bankruptcy by next summer. And if the cash burn rate remains that high, I wouldn't count on United emerging from bankruptcy.
It's not that hard to read a financial report. Spend some time learning how to read one.
Since you seem to be a financial expert, can you explain to me (or us) how we end up filing for bankruptcy next summer vs. American or Delta? Don't you think we would first retire 20-50% of our fleet and have another wave of furloughs first?
And I am aware that our 2nd quarter CB was high. But was it the worst? 3rd Quarter is forecasted to be 25 mil a day.. is that the worse?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
This isn't about the need to furlough. We now know that it's probably going to happen.
This is about the way we are being treated.
An initial Displacement bid that had to be fixed a week or so later.
Follow up Displacement bids to adjust what the last one's did...
All the while, No Early Out (while our competitors offered them), no fleet retirements (again, done at Delta & American)..
Finally the word that we would be furloughing 2250. In three batches,
Finally an Early Out and Furlough mitigation... that was suppose to reduce those initial numbers.
Then our competitors announce their furlough numbers and it's a reduction from their initial numbers.
And then there's us.
Motch
08-28-2020, 08:11 AM
#26
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2009
Position: A320 FO
Posts: 383
Motch
3900 is from BQ July 30th CCS message.
my earlier post (June/July timeframe) of 3500 (3498.3) was based on MEC P2P update giving a methodology to the reduction of pilots taking 30% of active pilots. 20-08D I think had 11600 active.
Early outs only save a furlough if the EO if they were going to retire after summer 2021.
otherwise good stuff.
3900 is from BQ July 30th CCS message.
my earlier post (June/July timeframe) of 3500 (3498.3) was based on MEC P2P update giving a methodology to the reduction of pilots taking 30% of active pilots. 20-08D I think had 11600 active.
Early outs only save a furlough if the EO if they were going to retire after summer 2021.
otherwise good stuff.
08-28-2020, 08:16 AM
#27
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: 787
Posts: 3,202
Mitch I don’t have the time time respond to your huge post but I’ll try later. For now, we don’t have to retire aircraft to keep them parked in ROW Indefinitely. Right now our 777 fleet and 767 fleet are as good as gone until they are need again consider them retired. The company is just keeping the asset.
and as far as why DL and AA are furloughing smaller numbers? Because they mitigated more furloughs than we did. DL early outed 1800 pilots we got 500 IF they all sign the waiver. It’s not a big conspiracy, we just had a more restrictive mitigation. Blame the union, blame the company, blame the pilots that didn’t take it. Doesn’t really matter....our furlough numbers went UP because not enough people voluntarily left, 3000-4000 pilots are leaving all three majors one way or another.
and as far as why DL and AA are furloughing smaller numbers? Because they mitigated more furloughs than we did. DL early outed 1800 pilots we got 500 IF they all sign the waiver. It’s not a big conspiracy, we just had a more restrictive mitigation. Blame the union, blame the company, blame the pilots that didn’t take it. Doesn’t really matter....our furlough numbers went UP because not enough people voluntarily left, 3000-4000 pilots are leaving all three majors one way or another.
08-28-2020, 08:16 AM
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2015
Posts: 166
Motch
3900 is from BQ July 30th CCS message.
my earlier post (June/July timeframe) of 3500 (3498.3) was based on MEC P2P update giving a methodology to the reduction of pilots taking 30% of active pilots. 20-08D I think had 11600 active.
Early outs only save a furlough if the EO if they were going to retire after summer 2021.
otherwise good stuff.
3900 is from BQ July 30th CCS message.
my earlier post (June/July timeframe) of 3500 (3498.3) was based on MEC P2P update giving a methodology to the reduction of pilots taking 30% of active pilots. 20-08D I think had 11600 active.
Early outs only save a furlough if the EO if they were going to retire after summer 2021.
otherwise good stuff.
08-28-2020, 08:41 AM
#30
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
SMH. Not sure it's even worth trying to correct all of that.
Motch, the forecasting models are trending downward so the cuts will get deeper. In simple terms, the sh!t's getting worse, not better.
The early retirement program doesn't save the bottom furloughs; it saves the very last senior furloughs. Others have already told you that. If so many others can see this, why is it so hard to sink into your cranium case.
You still haven't figured out how much worse it is for United due to our heavy international exposure. Comparing United's problems to other airlines is really a poor thought process.
And I was fully aware that you couldn't even take the time to look at the earnings report because if you had, you'd know we aren't 'killing it' in our cargo ops.
But the bottom line is this: management was far too optimistic in previous forecasts. They're adjusting everything downward now because their data is looking far worse than even just a few weeks ago. Even current forecasts may be far too optimistic.
So yeah, deteriorating forecasts translate into larger numbers furloughed. It's not rocket science, it's not a conspiracy, it's not management playing anyone. It's basic business survival.
Are you sure you've been in the airline industry more than a couple of years? Because anyone who's been in the business for a while should be able to recognize that the industry has a huge revenue problem. Bluntly, it's the worst airline downturn in any active pilot's lifetime. And it's not getting better.
Motch, the forecasting models are trending downward so the cuts will get deeper. In simple terms, the sh!t's getting worse, not better.
The early retirement program doesn't save the bottom furloughs; it saves the very last senior furloughs. Others have already told you that. If so many others can see this, why is it so hard to sink into your cranium case.
You still haven't figured out how much worse it is for United due to our heavy international exposure. Comparing United's problems to other airlines is really a poor thought process.
And I was fully aware that you couldn't even take the time to look at the earnings report because if you had, you'd know we aren't 'killing it' in our cargo ops.
But the bottom line is this: management was far too optimistic in previous forecasts. They're adjusting everything downward now because their data is looking far worse than even just a few weeks ago. Even current forecasts may be far too optimistic.
So yeah, deteriorating forecasts translate into larger numbers furloughed. It's not rocket science, it's not a conspiracy, it's not management playing anyone. It's basic business survival.
Are you sure you've been in the airline industry more than a couple of years? Because anyone who's been in the business for a while should be able to recognize that the industry has a huge revenue problem. Bluntly, it's the worst airline downturn in any active pilot's lifetime. And it's not getting better.
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