Hold My Bier
08-27-2020, 05:24 PM
#11
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2012
Posts: 203
We are furloughing more because after an initial rise in bookings, they have now dropped substantially for holidays in November and December.
Barring acceptance of an extension of Cares act, pilots will be hitting the street October 1.
Not defending the company at all, just stating reality.
I support our MEC and believe they will do the best for ALL our pilots. Whether the company and the Union can come to an agreement remains to be seen. Then we will get to vote on it.
Barring acceptance of an extension of Cares act, pilots will be hitting the street October 1.
Not defending the company at all, just stating reality.
I support our MEC and believe they will do the best for ALL our pilots. Whether the company and the Union can come to an agreement remains to be seen. Then we will get to vote on it.
08-27-2020, 05:30 PM
#12
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: 787
Posts: 3,202
Motch, my guess is you will see more furloughs at the other legacies as well. UAL has been very conservative in its moves - not revamping too quickly, drawing down more dramatically. Two months ago everyone was complaining that AA and SW were flying so much. Well, their experiment didn't work. UAL correctly anticipated sustained suppressed loads and was able to save much more cash because of it.
My guess is that UAL is getting out in front of this cutting staff quickly where the others will be doing it eventually. Maybe UAL WILL be better poised to take advantage of the recovery. We'll see. For now I will trust that leadership knows what it's doing with regards to long term survival of the company. Our job is to preserve our UPA.
My guess is that UAL is getting out in front of this cutting staff quickly where the others will be doing it eventually. Maybe UAL WILL be better poised to take advantage of the recovery. We'll see. For now I will trust that leadership knows what it's doing with regards to long term survival of the company. Our job is to preserve our UPA.
AA, DL and UA all got the same amount of people off their list, in fact DL got rid of more. We just each took a different route to get there.
DL - Early Out + furloughs = 3600-3700
AA - Early Out + forced empty lines + furloughs = 3200-3300
UA - EARLY Out + LOAs + furloughs = 3300 -3400
UA furloughed more because our EO was more restrictive and that’s just what it is.......without the EO I have no doubt that today’s CCS message would have said 3400 furloughs.
08-27-2020, 05:38 PM
#13
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: 787
Posts: 3,202
AA, DL and UA all got the same amount of people off their list, in fact DL got rid of more. We just each took a different route to get there.
DL - Early Out + furloughs = 3600-3700
AA - Early Out + forced empty lines + furloughs = 3200-3300
UA - EARLY Out + LOAs + furloughs = 3300 -3400
UA furloughed more because our EO was more restrictive and that’s just what it is.......without the EO I have no doubt that today’s CCS message would have said 3400 furloughs.
DL - Early Out + furloughs = 3600-3700
AA - Early Out + forced empty lines + furloughs = 3200-3300
UA - EARLY Out + LOAs + furloughs = 3300 -3400
UA furloughed more because our EO was more restrictive and that’s just what it is.......without the EO I have no doubt that today’s CCS message would have said 3400 furloughs.
people have said if one legacy goes out of business the remaining 2 will be ok....well one just did.
08-27-2020, 06:01 PM
#14
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2013
Position: Banned
Posts: 92
Unexpected turbulence. The company is like us with the seat belt sign. You look at all available info but you really don't know for sure what the ride ahead is gonna be like unless you fly through a thunderstorm.
08-27-2020, 06:08 PM
#15
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Posts: 2,321
Some of you guys can continue to defend the company. So be it.
But the REALITY is, we were TOLD 1750, then 250 and another 250.
We were TOLD that furlough mitigations would help those numbers.
Then.. we were TOLD that we may need to furlough even more in 2021.
Yes, I get that this CoVid19 Virus isn't going away. And that we are fat on International travel and Business Travel. We have also been told that we are killing it on the cargo side.
We have also been told manpower planning & training knows what they are doing. That canceling all training in May was done due to all those pilots being redundant or being displaced. We see how great that plan worked. Every day 100% trips in open time. Paying 10-15K ADD Pay for a single trip- money that would save one or two pilots in a few months.
Now, out of the blue we find out we are furloughing even more than initially announced! That's a hell of a Furlough Mitigation Program we just had.
There is NO EXCUSE to announce added furloughs and move up the dates of others. NONE.
Whatever airline emerges when this is all over will NEVER be what it could have been.
Management keeps saying that they want to be ready to pounce when things turn around. I (personal opinion) think they are in for a rude awakening.
Unfortunately, the same now applies to our Pilot Group. We will be operating under our current CBA for many many years to come.
So Be It.
Motch
But the REALITY is, we were TOLD 1750, then 250 and another 250.
We were TOLD that furlough mitigations would help those numbers.
Then.. we were TOLD that we may need to furlough even more in 2021.
Yes, I get that this CoVid19 Virus isn't going away. And that we are fat on International travel and Business Travel. We have also been told that we are killing it on the cargo side.
We have also been told manpower planning & training knows what they are doing. That canceling all training in May was done due to all those pilots being redundant or being displaced. We see how great that plan worked. Every day 100% trips in open time. Paying 10-15K ADD Pay for a single trip- money that would save one or two pilots in a few months.
Now, out of the blue we find out we are furloughing even more than initially announced! That's a hell of a Furlough Mitigation Program we just had.
There is NO EXCUSE to announce added furloughs and move up the dates of others. NONE.
Whatever airline emerges when this is all over will NEVER be what it could have been.
Management keeps saying that they want to be ready to pounce when things turn around. I (personal opinion) think they are in for a rude awakening.
Unfortunately, the same now applies to our Pilot Group. We will be operating under our current CBA for many many years to come.
So Be It.
Motch
08-27-2020, 06:58 PM
#16
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2020
Posts: 98
It’s not about being a company cheerleader. Those guys are hard to find. The company stuck with their 30% number for a long time. They said from the beginning that if demand was down X%, we would adjust staffing and cost to match. When we were originally told about the 1750 followed by 2 more chunks of 250 each, we were surprised that it was “only” 2250 when many were expecting 3000-4000. They never said that the first wave of WARN notices was the final plan. They then came out and said that unless things change, we could be looking at 3900 or more. That 3900 works out to about 30%. If things don’t change, they will reduce the headcount by more. They never said that the 2250 would be the total furlough number, they never said that there would only be one round, and they never said that any plan would be rigidly adhered too. We have a tendency to hear what we want to believe. The reality is that they said that they would have to match the airline to demand if a recovery didn’t happen soon to avoid bleeding to death. We have acquired financing to hold out a little longer, but that money has to be paid back with interest and we are bleeding bad. It is because of this that unfortunately there is a reason to announce more furloughs, and there is a reason to accelerate them. We are in survival mode and even though we are burning less cash than others, it is unsustainable. This is going to shake the industry to the foundation, it is far from over, and the industry will most likely look different for years to come. What airlines could have been is irrelevant at this point. This is about surviving and adapting to what comes after this is over.
08-27-2020, 08:38 PM
#17
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2011
Position: A Nobody
Posts: 1,559
I’m not a shill for UAL Management, nor am I advocating to negotiate a contract in public. What I am stating is this, if you think this is all some sort of conspiracy to get contract cuts, we’ll think again. All the airlines across the entire globe are failing because there is just a fraction of the customers there used to be.
What I find reprehensible is how some want to find where the end of the ladder is to protect themselves from “pay cuts,” and “the future of the profession.”
I have no idea when the customers will return and neither do any of you. Being furloughed in this environment is far different than any other time in pilot history.
What I find reprehensible is how some want to find where the end of the ladder is to protect themselves from “pay cuts,” and “the future of the profession.”
I have no idea when the customers will return and neither do any of you. Being furloughed in this environment is far different than any other time in pilot history.
08-27-2020, 08:41 PM
#18
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
Some of you guys can continue to defend the company. So be it.
But the REALITY is, we were TOLD 1750, then 250 and another 250.
We were TOLD that furlough mitigations would help those numbers.
Then.. we were TOLD that we may need to furlough even more in 2021.
Yes, I get that this CoVid19 Virus isn't going away. And that we are fat on International travel and Business Travel. We have also been told that we are killing it on the cargo side.
We have also been told manpower planning & training knows what they are doing. That canceling all training in May was done due to all those pilots being redundant or being displaced. We see how great that plan worked. Every day 100% trips in open time. Paying 10-15K ADD Pay for a single trip- money that would save one or two pilots in a few months.
Now, out of the blue we find out we are furloughing even more than initially announced! That's a hell of a Furlough Mitigation Program we just had.
There is NO EXCUSE to announce added furloughs and move up the dates of others. NONE.
Whatever airline emerges when this is all over will NEVER be what it could have been.
Management keeps saying that they want to be ready to pounce when things turn around. I (personal opinion) think they are in for a rude awakening.
Unfortunately, the same now applies to our Pilot Group. We will be operating under our current CBA for many many years to come.
So Be It.
Motch
But the REALITY is, we were TOLD 1750, then 250 and another 250.
We were TOLD that furlough mitigations would help those numbers.
Then.. we were TOLD that we may need to furlough even more in 2021.
Yes, I get that this CoVid19 Virus isn't going away. And that we are fat on International travel and Business Travel. We have also been told that we are killing it on the cargo side.
We have also been told manpower planning & training knows what they are doing. That canceling all training in May was done due to all those pilots being redundant or being displaced. We see how great that plan worked. Every day 100% trips in open time. Paying 10-15K ADD Pay for a single trip- money that would save one or two pilots in a few months.
Now, out of the blue we find out we are furloughing even more than initially announced! That's a hell of a Furlough Mitigation Program we just had.
There is NO EXCUSE to announce added furloughs and move up the dates of others. NONE.
Whatever airline emerges when this is all over will NEVER be what it could have been.
Management keeps saying that they want to be ready to pounce when things turn around. I (personal opinion) think they are in for a rude awakening.
Unfortunately, the same now applies to our Pilot Group. We will be operating under our current CBA for many many years to come.
So Be It.
Motch
Passenger traffic hasn't recovered.
I asked you about cash burn rates. Do you know current cash burn? The company put $25M/day in their forecast for Q3. But that was based on better traffic numbers than what we've had in Q3.
Do you know what the Q2 cash burn rate was? $40M/day.
Odds are that Q3's burn rate is somewhere between those numbers.
That kind of cash burn rate needs to be reduced or this company is going to need to file for bankruptcy by next summer. And if the cash burn rate remains that high, I wouldn't count on United emerging from bankruptcy.
It's not that hard to read a financial report. Spend some time learning how to read one.
08-28-2020, 04:18 AM
#19
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: CRJ FO
Posts: 4,601
Does the current cash burn rate account for the Payroll Support? As in, after October 1st does cash burn go back up?
And I agree, I think a trip to the courts is in store for all 3 legacies by next summer. Further government grants and loans will likely just push the time frame out that some airlines file.
And I agree, I think a trip to the courts is in store for all 3 legacies by next summer. Further government grants and loans will likely just push the time frame out that some airlines file.
08-28-2020, 04:43 AM
#20
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Posts: 2,321
Does the current cash burn rate account for the Payroll Support? As in, after October 1st does cash burn go back up?
And I agree, I think a trip to the courts is in store for all 3 legacies by next summer. Further government grants and loans will likely just push the time frame out that some airlines file.
And I agree, I think a trip to the courts is in store for all 3 legacies by next summer. Further government grants and loans will likely just push the time frame out that some airlines file.
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