tallpilot

Correct. The more ubiquitous automation becomes the easier it will be accepted as well as the economies of scale to make it affordable.

AxlF16

Fortunately for us t's more complicated than this. Unlike most other areas of AI and automation, failure here will be spectacular...and deadly. As another poster alluded, you also need major advances in datalink waveforms or bandwidth. Even the USAF can't provide all required bandwidth organically - and they own and operate leading edge space based comm. Then - even if you solve the 'throughput' problem you still have to make it secure. Not just secure like your facebook password, but REAL security. Another poster did a fine job explaining the basics of what that means. When you even get to this point, you need redundancy for normal material and infrastructure failures. Now tell me WHO is going to pay for this? The cost to build and operate the required infrastructure will be staggering. I know that we make good money, but I don't think you'll find any cost savings for a very long time.

The lessons learned from US military UAS/RPA are instructive. The control systems and communication/control links are arguably more important the the technology in the aircraft. In my experience the systems lacked adequate operational redundancy and flexibility for commercial operations.

Based on my 121 and military experience I think that introducing these systems into the airspace will only slow things down and reduce capacity. Ask yourself how many times you've saved a go around by having the preceding aircraft in sight. How many more aircraft can arrive under 'visual' conditions - and how much do airports rely on that capacity?

I'll believe it's coming when I see more efficiency & no mistakes from ATC, when I see no ACARS, WiFi, & CCS failures, and when I see no Jepp Database or aircraft systems malfunctions.

In other words - I don't expect to see this in my career, or even my lifetime. FWIW I'm 53 years old.

cougar

Most current generation Boeing airplanes have customer option (OPC) to select G/S capture prior LOC capture, to include 747-8 and 777.

horrido27

Spot on.
It will take a clean sheet aircraft.. and it will be done with the cargo world first.
Still looking for those driverless taxi's we were told would be here by now. Or the small drones buzzing around everywhere delivering our Amazon's and Pizza's.

Motch

pangolin

The pizza drones and driverless vehicles all require something we don't have yet. Battery capacity. Driverless cars are closer but even those are showing to be problematic AI wise. But drones and flying taxi's and even driverless cars (who fills the gas tank - plugging in is easier) all require battery technology that we just don't have yet - let alone the AI AND sensors to handle the tasks.

AllYourBaseAreB

ATL will have to change their SOPs. Countless GS anomalies caused by crossing A/C. Especially heavies from the hangars crossing the southern runway.

Also bad in BOS and PHL

Monkeyfly

Want to know how long until pilotless planes? Simple formula.

Think of your own FMC. Let the number of years its been in operation = X. Let the number of times computing power that would be required for that FMC to fly without you = Y.

Multiply X times Y and divide by two for Moore' Law = Years to all airliners don't need you.

For example, I predict that a 737 will safely fly itself in the year 15520 AD.

Excargodog

A freight train still requires two people in a locomotive and it runs on a near-level track with course guidance switched externally and - increasingly - speed controlled the same way. And the primary job of the engineer consists mainly of taking his foot off the deadman’s switch if everything else fails. Or if he dies. And the other guy is for backup.

i think we got a few decades left before pilots are obsoleted by technology.

Downtime

You an optimist. How many times have you seen the auto throttles try to push themselves up as you have the boards out trying to slow down and go down.

GolferNJ

Plus, the FAA has been working for over two years on approving MCAS. So if A=the number of independent items on your aircraft and B=number of years to test and approve each system for autonomous flight with hundreds of passengers in the back. I would say we are safe until well past 16000 AD.