Pilot Shortage
08-09-2020, 11:03 AM
#41
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 12,254
While we ruminate about something (HAL taking our place) that is years, probably decades away at least, I think we're missing the big picture.
The title of this thread is "Pilot Shortage." Demand for our services was extremely high and accelerating seven months ago. That drove the pay improvements all carriers saw through the '10s. This black swan event is unprecedented, but like all black swan events, it will eventually pass. When it does and there is again accelerating demand for our services, where are the pilots going to come from? The military has been producing far less pilots than it used to and at least the Air Force still has a serious rated manning shortage. Civilian production has been decimated by the lost decade and the attendant aversion to the high cost and low return on investment prospective pilots faced, hence programs like Aviate to try to prime the pump. After this event, it may again be a hard sell to a college age American to consider a career in aviation. But the fact remains, we are difficult to produce widgets--there's a long lead time and considerable expense to do so. You can't just magically produce an ATP qualified individual overnight.
Management at every airline recognizes this and are taking steps to try to lock in long term company gains at pilots' expense while we're at the nadir of this event. It's not coincidence that Kirby is trying to get voluntary MPG cuts while Bastian is trying to do the same thing. Nor was Kelly's veiled threat of pulling the offered contract at the beginning of the pandemic unrelated to the reality that this is a short term but very intense correction to the long term need for pilots.
With that in mind, consider the following:
1) Pilots have far more leverage than they currently think due to the realities outlined above.
2) Management is using fear during this very intense correction to try to drive long term company gains that wouldn't be economically available in the pre-COVID environment.
3) Airline stocks, after an initial steep decline, have bounced nicely and are currently fairly stable. This indicates Wall Street's belief that there is light at the end of the tunnel and that bankruptcy is not the foregone conclusion some would have us believe.
4) Programs already in place (furlough-plus, half-month COLAs, restricted early out program) along with the company's own messaging (not flight ops or union messaging, that's all doom & gloom for our benefit) points to an awareness of a return to an environment where pilots will be needed, perhaps in very short order.
5) Watch very closely any legislation that would relax rules regarding foreign pilots flying for US carriers. That's where I see the next threat.
Truth in advertising, I'm one of the 3900+ hostages. I'm not willing to slit my own throat.
The title of this thread is "Pilot Shortage." Demand for our services was extremely high and accelerating seven months ago. That drove the pay improvements all carriers saw through the '10s. This black swan event is unprecedented, but like all black swan events, it will eventually pass. When it does and there is again accelerating demand for our services, where are the pilots going to come from? The military has been producing far less pilots than it used to and at least the Air Force still has a serious rated manning shortage. Civilian production has been decimated by the lost decade and the attendant aversion to the high cost and low return on investment prospective pilots faced, hence programs like Aviate to try to prime the pump. After this event, it may again be a hard sell to a college age American to consider a career in aviation. But the fact remains, we are difficult to produce widgets--there's a long lead time and considerable expense to do so. You can't just magically produce an ATP qualified individual overnight.
Management at every airline recognizes this and are taking steps to try to lock in long term company gains at pilots' expense while we're at the nadir of this event. It's not coincidence that Kirby is trying to get voluntary MPG cuts while Bastian is trying to do the same thing. Nor was Kelly's veiled threat of pulling the offered contract at the beginning of the pandemic unrelated to the reality that this is a short term but very intense correction to the long term need for pilots.
With that in mind, consider the following:
1) Pilots have far more leverage than they currently think due to the realities outlined above.
2) Management is using fear during this very intense correction to try to drive long term company gains that wouldn't be economically available in the pre-COVID environment.
3) Airline stocks, after an initial steep decline, have bounced nicely and are currently fairly stable. This indicates Wall Street's belief that there is light at the end of the tunnel and that bankruptcy is not the foregone conclusion some would have us believe.
4) Programs already in place (furlough-plus, half-month COLAs, restricted early out program) along with the company's own messaging (not flight ops or union messaging, that's all doom & gloom for our benefit) points to an awareness of a return to an environment where pilots will be needed, perhaps in very short order.
5) Watch very closely any legislation that would relax rules regarding foreign pilots flying for US carriers. That's where I see the next threat.
Truth in advertising, I'm one of the 3900+ hostages. I'm not willing to slit my own throat.
08-09-2020, 11:46 AM
#42
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2009
Position: 757/767 FO
Posts: 105
08-09-2020, 11:58 AM
#43
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2011
Position: Reclining
Posts: 840
08-09-2020, 01:54 PM
#44
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: FAA 'Flight Check'
Posts: 13,839
The next after was 03/15/2016.
There are no special inspections issued for that facility between the two periodic inspections.
In both of those inspections that clearance required to keep the needle pegged were over 50% greater than required. The last inspection was in Nov 2020 and had the same excess of clearances.
This is a CAT III/E- the highest class of ILS system performance category - and a report of false anything on this type of system would be immediately reported to the FAA's Command Center and would probably result in a priority 1A or 2 directed flight inspection.
Was there any actual investigation into this event? Again - any chance of such a thing happening with a shred of question whether the ILS was producing a False LOC indication would trigger a shut down and inspection.
The LOC service volumes between the ILSs between RWYs 23 and 31 barely overlap between the 90hz side of RWY 23 and the 150hz side of 31. Not the area that you would generally received a false .
I type all of this not to dispute that an A-320 had an aborted approach to RWY 23 when they thought they were lined up on RWY 31, but to dispute that it was because of FALSE LOC indications.
[MENTION=74834]pangolin[/MENTION] -
YES - anxiously awaiting the final report of that mishap. If it turns out to be the performance of the LOC - look to new rules for the issuance of SNOW NOTAMS.
The environment definitely affects ILS LOC and GS performance. That is why there are critical areas at some airports. That is the reason for many restrictions on some systems. Environmental interferences are some of the hardest things to try and track down find a solution to and often end of having to get engineers involved to find fixes.
But even if we count that one system, it is still far from 'countless'. That was my rebuttle to your remark - not that there can be false LOC or GS, but that there are "countless" of them - because there just aren't in the US NAS.
As for the pilots who are saying that the AP is capturing the GS before established on the LOC - well that is an AP issue or a FMS issue or usage problem - not an ILS problem. IF you are within the service volume of the LOC and the GS - the ILS system doesn't determine when your airplane starts the approach. That is a whole different problem.
08-09-2020, 02:12 PM
#45
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2013
Posts: 280
Was there any actual investigation into this event? Again - any chance of such a thing happening with a shred of question whether the ILS was producing a False LOC indication would trigger a shut down and inspection.
The LOC service volumes between the ILSs between RWYs 23 and 31 barely overlap between the 90hz side of RWY 23 and the 150hz side of 31. Not the area that you would generally received a false .
I type all of this not to dispute that an A-320 had an aborted approach to RWY 23 when they thought they were lined up on RWY 31, but to dispute that it was because of FALSE LOC indications.
The LOC service volumes between the ILSs between RWYs 23 and 31 barely overlap between the 90hz side of RWY 23 and the 150hz side of 31. Not the area that you would generally received a false .
I type all of this not to dispute that an A-320 had an aborted approach to RWY 23 when they thought they were lined up on RWY 31, but to dispute that it was because of FALSE LOC indications.
Again, I think this is all a pointless bunny hole regarding the original intent of the thread. We aren't about to turn the national aerospace system over to robots anytime in the near-to-mid future. While demand for our services is currently low, it won't stay that way for too long. Consider this when the company/union floats concessions now that could last well into when demand for our services returns in earnest.
08-09-2020, 02:37 PM
#46
Get me outta here...
Joined APC: Oct 2008
Position: Boeing right seat
Posts: 1,541
How many years did it take the FAA to wring their hands and finally pass as something as simple and benign as BasicMed?
The technology might be here soon enough... but the regulatory and political constraints / pushback (a la the 737 Max fix) will be insurmountable for a long time.
The unmanned airline cockpit is a long, long ways away from taking our jobs.
The technology might be here soon enough... but the regulatory and political constraints / pushback (a la the 737 Max fix) will be insurmountable for a long time.
The unmanned airline cockpit is a long, long ways away from taking our jobs.
08-09-2020, 04:08 PM
#49
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 110
This one cuts both ways. The statistics doesn’t capture how many times pilot error would have led to an accident but for automation.
08-09-2020, 04:11 PM
#50
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Posts: 1,083
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
