LAXLUVR

A potential furloughee is about 1500 from the bottom on our list and came to me for advice (she is my best friend's kid). She asked how long I thought she would be out for. I told her to:
a. ask someone at the union,
b. ask someone at the company
c. ask someone who knows the industry she may have flown with
and d. ask on this board...

She said the union would not say, the company would not say and her mentor is telling her furloughs may not happen. She can't join the board for some reason so I said I'd post her question: She wants to know how long furloughs historically last. I wouldn't even hazard a guess since I remember hearing stories from old UAL 747-100 Captains in 2000 that were out for 17 years back in the 1970s and 80s but then ours at UAL ran 2-5 years. Any forecast would be appreciated. What's the general thinking on the subject? I don't want to scare her but I don't think the next few years are going to be as good as the last few years.

Barley

Well the company, IATA, and A4A have repeatedly stated 3-5 years is their best guess for a recovery to 2019 revenue levels. That’s a changing metric as there is no good way to model anything right now. Best you can do is extrapolate off that.

cadetdrivr

Also remember that there are retirements (absent an early-out) running during that 3-5 year clock.

The problem here is that nobody knows what the demand is even gonna look like for next summer so nobody knows how many are gonna get furloughed let alone how fast the recalls will happen.

Anything is a guess. Which means all the guesses have value and none of them do.

Half wing

With retirements factored in and 1500 from bottom, I would be suprised if she wasn’t back in spring of 2022 for the summer 2022 flying.

oldmako

Her mentor is toking bud.

Guppydriver95

another source: ualpilotsforum.info. More up to date info, more SME’s, pilots only, and best of all, no scabs👍

Barley

There seem to be a lot of folks living in some fantasy world of a V-shaped recovery that’s just around the corner. I think it’s pretty irresponsible that a mentor is suggesting the possibility they’ll be no furloughs.

UAL T38 Phlyer

I’d guess three years worst, two years best. But just a guess.

MasterOfPuppets

I think that’s a good guess. The difference between now and 08’ is that retirements will continue every single day. So to maintain stus quo the numbers say they will need to return pilots sooner rather than later.

Huell

Fantasy world? Starts at the top.

It's a hoax.
It will be over by April.
Everything back to normal by Easter.

Yeah, fantasy world. The mentor is not alone.