Displacement award published
05-24-2020, 03:06 PM
#51
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2013
Posts: 545
After the JB or AS merger we can add in JB or AS 2012 hire as that same seniority. Then I want to hear the CAL 06 hires talk about how unfair it is that someone hired after them at JB or AS can be senior to them at United. Management is following the formula, furlough a massive number of pilots, merge with another airline, immediately bring back the furloughed pilots. Its critical to make sure the pilots are gone when the merger happens, even if they are only off the property for a few months, since that’s all the merger panels look at. If JB/AS play it right, they have nobody or very few on furlough and they get to ride the wave. Great for them!
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05-24-2020, 03:59 PM
#52
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Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: 767/757 CA
Posts: 2,701
My GUESS is it goes something like this:
Training will likely begin a max effort this week to assign Transition/RQ training to the awarded NB FO's above 70% seniority line. For those needing full transition they will likely pair F/O's; the NB FO will be their immediate training focus.
Displacement bid 20-07D2 is likely going to be published between Wednesday and Friday this week. Getting it out by Friday would provide the 30 days required by 8-E-2 allowing the effective date to be June 29th (the July bid month). This bid would probably focus on pushing any excess NB CA and WB/756 FO to NB FO and might target some larger NB FO imbalances. Be careful on any "sport bidding" on this one, as the results of this displacement awards may have a long shelf life.
The results of that displacement would be out somewhere around Monday June 22. It is highly probable following that award the company will issue furlough notices.
During the last week of June they would probably issue furlough notices to comply with the 90 day requirement in Section 1-I-2. This notification date would allow the company to furlough pilots hired before January 23, 2016 if needed. This also would trigger 7-I which exempts pilots notified of furlough from being displaced on the next round of displacement bidding.
Displacement bid 20-08D (round 3) could be out the last week of June or it could easily be a vacancy bid instead. A displacement would likely be smaller and focus on any gross imbalances of NB F/O's. If the displacement is issued it would likely be followed by the vacancy bid in late July to backfill any categories that ended up short. Again, it is very possible that the vacancy bid could come before the 3rd round of displacements.
This would all result in having the 70% staffing done on paper by the end of July. The training backlog would be large, but likely manageable.
In August and September, any signs of demand recovery would then be weight against the potential risks of COVID round 2 this winter in determining whether to cancel some furlough notices. Let's hope that a fast recovery is the case!
This whole thing is extremely dynamic, and of course is subject to positive and negative changes going forward. I do not know what will happen, but the timeline above is likely very likely if the present industry expectations do continue as forecast.
Hoping for the best case, but preparing otherwise.
SP
Training will likely begin a max effort this week to assign Transition/RQ training to the awarded NB FO's above 70% seniority line. For those needing full transition they will likely pair F/O's; the NB FO will be their immediate training focus.
Displacement bid 20-07D2 is likely going to be published between Wednesday and Friday this week. Getting it out by Friday would provide the 30 days required by 8-E-2 allowing the effective date to be June 29th (the July bid month). This bid would probably focus on pushing any excess NB CA and WB/756 FO to NB FO and might target some larger NB FO imbalances. Be careful on any "sport bidding" on this one, as the results of this displacement awards may have a long shelf life.
The results of that displacement would be out somewhere around Monday June 22. It is highly probable following that award the company will issue furlough notices.
During the last week of June they would probably issue furlough notices to comply with the 90 day requirement in Section 1-I-2. This notification date would allow the company to furlough pilots hired before January 23, 2016 if needed. This also would trigger 7-I which exempts pilots notified of furlough from being displaced on the next round of displacement bidding.
Displacement bid 20-08D (round 3) could be out the last week of June or it could easily be a vacancy bid instead. A displacement would likely be smaller and focus on any gross imbalances of NB F/O's. If the displacement is issued it would likely be followed by the vacancy bid in late July to backfill any categories that ended up short. Again, it is very possible that the vacancy bid could come before the 3rd round of displacements.
This would all result in having the 70% staffing done on paper by the end of July. The training backlog would be large, but likely manageable.
In August and September, any signs of demand recovery would then be weight against the potential risks of COVID round 2 this winter in determining whether to cancel some furlough notices. Let's hope that a fast recovery is the case!
This whole thing is extremely dynamic, and of course is subject to positive and negative changes going forward. I do not know what will happen, but the timeline above is likely very likely if the present industry expectations do continue as forecast.
Hoping for the best case, but preparing otherwise.
SP
05-24-2020, 04:08 PM
#53
Banned
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Posts: 1,358
He’ll be 90 years old in a nursing home still complaining about the SLI. A LUAL guy who spent years of his longevity on furlough is upset that the arbitrator followed his company’s integration proposal instead of using pure hire date, including inactive years while on furlough. Most people have moved on, some will take it to the grave.
05-24-2020, 04:23 PM
#54
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2015
Posts: 491
He’ll be 90 years old in a nursing home still complaining about the SLI. A LUAL guy who spent years of his longevity on furlough is upset that the arbitrator followed his company’s integration proposal instead of using pure hire date, including inactive years while on furlough. Most people have moved on, some will take it to the grave.
05-24-2020, 04:23 PM
#55
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Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: SFO Guppy CA
Posts: 1,112
05-24-2020, 04:48 PM
#56
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Joined APC: May 2007
Position: A320 Captain
Posts: 1,982
05-24-2020, 04:53 PM
#58
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Joined APC: Apr 2013
Posts: 545
Never furloughed. Not even close. Also the arbitrators didn't take the UAL proposal. They adjusted down the longevity to help junior LCAL pilots and added a ridiculous 787 fence that let a bunch of guys get based in LAX and SFO that shouldn't have been there. Doesn't matter now. They are all gone.
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05-24-2020, 05:26 PM
#59
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Joined APC: May 2006
Position: WB Bunkie
Posts: 1,246
Motch,
I think the reason the min/max isn’t super relevant on the displacement is because the objective was to “flush” as many pilots back to the NB right seat without getting to play the bump game. So, although they may have put 220 as max CA in some BES, I don’t think we can assume the company is looking to match at 220 FOs. I think a more realistic CA number could be 270 let’s say, but the company didn’t want those additional 50 slots that they’d have to re-bump/train. They can cancel some senior displacements without any UPA penalty that I’m aware of.
I’d expect the middle third of the NB CA displacements to be trained first and the second quartile of WB FOs (the 62-70%). They’ll likely want to save the most senior to see if they really need to bumped, and the third quartile of WB FOs and bottom third of NB CAs (70-78%) will train in a few months (potential furloughs if things lag). Bottom WB FOs will likely train last if flying picks up for next spring.
All worth the paper it’s printed on
I think the reason the min/max isn’t super relevant on the displacement is because the objective was to “flush” as many pilots back to the NB right seat without getting to play the bump game. So, although they may have put 220 as max CA in some BES, I don’t think we can assume the company is looking to match at 220 FOs. I think a more realistic CA number could be 270 let’s say, but the company didn’t want those additional 50 slots that they’d have to re-bump/train. They can cancel some senior displacements without any UPA penalty that I’m aware of.
I’d expect the middle third of the NB CA displacements to be trained first and the second quartile of WB FOs (the 62-70%). They’ll likely want to save the most senior to see if they really need to bumped, and the third quartile of WB FOs and bottom third of NB CAs (70-78%) will train in a few months (potential furloughs if things lag). Bottom WB FOs will likely train last if flying picks up for next spring.
All worth the paper it’s printed on
05-24-2020, 05:32 PM
#60
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: guppy CA
Posts: 5,171
I've got one more displacement to go and would like to know if I can stall for a while longer by going to a long course or just roll the bones and take the short course. (I suspect long course is the better option)
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