dmeg13021

I predict no NB laterals/rebalancing; only creates unnecessary paid moves. If you look at the category summary, using final NB CA #s as a proxy, look at the matching staffing seniority of the FOs (eg 100 320 CA in base x, seniority of FO #100 =?). They could cut to 11000 and probably more (arbitrary number, roughly 2500 furloughs) and be at full staffing in all categories, particularly after the 756 overages get reshuffled. And that’s not accounting for any CA over staffing resulting from the current displacement.

ugleeual

not in rd 2... NB rebalancing (w/ furlough notifications) will happen in rd 3. If the company furloughs 2500-3000 pilots it will gut the Manning in EWR and SFO... they will be forced to displace into those bases before 10/1.

ERJFO

Just trying to understand this. You work for a company that is burning $40 to $50M in cash a day, bringing in less than 10% of the revenue they used to and you want to cause them more pain and expense?

Dave Fitzgerald

Yes. These are not normal times. The contract was written to keep the company from unnecessarily furloughing every winter, on a whim.

This is also not the time to give up items in the contract for free. There is huge potential down side in the contract with stuff we would never, or take decades, get back--especially if we end up in bankruptcy. Furlough is very traumatic. Make it difficult for the company to furlough, meaning expensive, and it incentivizes the company to not do it needlessly.

Pilot furlough costs are in the noise if we go to bankruptcy. Literally anything we do will not make a difference in terms of cost savings to avoid bankruptcy. So why give for free when we now know we'll not get it back, not in most pilots careers.

SONORA PASS

My GUESS is it goes something like this:

Training will likely begin a max effort this week to assign Transition/RQ training to the awarded NB FO's above 70% seniority line. For those needing full transition they will likely pair F/O's; the NB FO will be their immediate training focus.

Displacement bid 20-07D2 is likely going to be published between Wednesday and Friday this week. Getting it out by Friday would provide the 30 days required by 8-E-2 allowing the effective date to be June 29th (the July bid month). This bid would probably focus on pushing any excess NB CA and WB/756 FO to NB FO and might target some larger NB FO imbalances. Be careful on any "sport bidding" on this one, as the results of this displacement awards may have a long shelf life.

The results of that displacement would be out somewhere around Monday June 22. It is highly probable following that award the company will issue furlough notices.

During the last week of June they would probably issue furlough notices to comply with the 90 day requirement in Section 1-I-2. This notification date would allow the company to furlough pilots hired before January 23, 2016 if needed. This also would trigger 7-I which exempts pilots notified of furlough from being displaced on the next round of displacement bidding.

Displacement bid 20-08D (round 3) could be out the last week of June or it could easily be a vacancy bid instead. A displacement would likely be smaller and focus on any gross imbalances of NB F/O's. If the displacement is issued it would likely be followed by the vacancy bid in late July to backfill any categories that ended up short. Again, it is very possible that the vacancy bid could come before the 3rd round of displacements.

This would all result in having the 70% staffing done on paper by the end of July. The training backlog would be large, but likely manageable.

In August and September, any signs of demand recovery would then be weight against the potential risks of COVID round 2 this winter in determining whether to cancel some furlough notices. Let's hope that a fast recovery is the case!

This whole thing is extremely dynamic, and of course is subject to positive and negative changes going forward. I do not know what will happen, but the timeline above is likely very likely if the present industry expectations do continue as forecast.

Hoping for the best case, but preparing otherwise.

SP

Aquaticus

9 Billion in stock buybacks, a contract that lapsed past its amendable date while the company was more profitable than ever before in its history, and how many millions in stock options will management pat themselves on the back with after this passes... This isn't the first time the industry has gone tits up. The buddy buddy management relationship never works and if it appears like it does it is pure theater. We are a # and nothing more. The contract lets us bid what we can hold in a displacement and bidding certain ways can make it prohibitively expensive to furlough a pilot. This tells them that we aren't seasonal labor and this is a professional career in the only language they understand $.

O2pilot

After the JB or AS merger we can add in JB or AS 2012 hire as that same seniority. Then I want to hear the CAL 06 hires talk about how unfair it is that someone hired after them at JB or AS can be senior to them at United. Management is following the formula, furlough a massive number of pilots, merge with another airline, immediately bring back the furloughed pilots. Its critical to make sure the pilots are gone when the merger happens, even if they are only off the property for a few months, since that’s all the merger panels look at. If JB/AS play it right, they have nobody or very few on furlough and they get to ride the wave. Great for them!

LeeFXDWG

I was not trying to make any statements with my post rather provide perspective. That’s all.

The SLI is over. I moved on a long time ago........

Lee

LeeFXDWG

SP

My 2 cent take.....

I expect PC to wait until the 120 day point in early June and announce the furlough plan. That’s sets the stage, unfortunately, for a much more refined 2nd round of displacements. That then allows them to refine planning for the training tidal wave that is forming.

But, what do I know?

Lee

horrido27

For those of you who say that the Min/Max doesn't matter.. I disagree.
That is a number that the company will use when they see how overstaffed we are in the end, is it not?
If we end up with 2500 Airbus FO's (Min/Max is 1008) and 3500 73/Guppy FO's (Min/Max is 1868) wouldn't that basically mean we are overstaffed by 3124 (Using arbitrary numbers to prove a point...)?

I get that Min/Max don't hold the same weight as they do in a Vacancy Bid.. but they still hold weight never the less.

So what happens to that 777 EWR FO who is now displaced into the 756 EWR FO BES.. does he get a training slot in June or July even though he might be displaced on the next Displacement Bid? What then happens to those pilots who were NOT displaced and yet now are.. they now displace into a category where they may displace others?! How many Displacement Bids does it take to get this done?
And WHEN does the first pilot from this bid go to training? THAT is a question I look forward to reading the answer. I would think that any 2-3 yr Capt on the Narrowbodies would be prime to start training almost immediately.. but wasn't the E-SRL designed for them so how many are left.. and on top of that, aren't they also in the Furlough Crosshairs? Hmmm

Something that has had me scratching my head and the questions that I asked about has still not been answered to my understanding.. so let me try it here.
I was told (on a Town Hall) that this 20-07D bid was based on projected pilot needs for Summer 2021. So, if true and PC is projecting a need of 7290 ACTIVE Pilots, why does the Min/Max only show 52 pilots retiring as of 6/30.
Shouldn't they be posting a Min/Max with usable reliable information? Shouldn't it show retirements to 9/30/2021?

And I totally get that this is a strange time. But that still shouldn't be reason to give the company a pass when they are overstepping and/or causing extra/undue stress to our fellow pilots.
Almost EVERY United Pilot wants to see our Company survive and thrive. Now and in the future. You hear it on the Town Halls, you read it on the Social Media posts. But we also need a little good info to make our decisions.
We should be primed to attack as things get better instead of retreating and expecting things to get worse (my opinion).

I look forward to the next DB. It will be interesting to look at Active Pilots, Min/Max and also Retirements.
36 Pilots are retiring in the Month of July. So that number should help out some WideBody Capts and FO's.. and a few Narrowbody Capts too.

My Fiance laughed when I told her I posted last night after a few drinks! (Corona Biers & Jagermeister!) but at least I didn't reach out to any of the ex gf's! LOL
But I still believe that the company really is playing Chess and for some reason.. we have pilots playing checkers. Hell.. there were guys still asking about when they get their new displacement pay just today on FB!
Oh, and something else that got my attention was some of the names of the list that the company published on the 21st of Pilots without Bids.

It's Memorial Day and for many of us, we had friends that died while serving. Hope everyone is able to tip a glass to our friends and everyone who paid the ultimate price.. so we could enjoy this weekend with friends & families..
All The Best Everyone~
Always
Motch

PS) I still believe that the ulterior motive for this crazy displacement bid and then these E-SRL's are to make the bottom 1000-2000 pilot "seasonal workers". And that bothers me.