New Crew Resources Update 8May
05-09-2020, 02:05 PM
#41
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 126
We are all just “yahoos” looking for info and support here (plus a few trolls stirring the pot I suppose. I found mathteacher’s POV interesting, even refreshing, and certainly not “doom and gloom.” His reported “results” are not impossible or unreasonable, and he presented an interesting hypothesis with details.
Our jobs are at the mercy of so many variables that are all constantly changing, and most of us seem to acknowledge that guessing furlough numbers is pure speculation. What seems lacking is a separation between the emotions of job instability and discussions of hypothetical scenarios and numbers.
What has been beaten into my head after more than 20 years in this industry is that it is unstable and cyclical. Furloughs are part of it. The more one’s well-being (financial and mental) depends upon being employed as a pilot, the more one is at risk of having that wellness interrupted. Being a pilot is both a job and an identity, and I have focused on minimizing my reliance on either for my happiness. Mathteacher’s independence as a “part-time” pilot has allowed him the option to let go and preserve / increase his mental health on his own terms. I submit he has chosen wisely, for himself, and others would be wise to pursue viable backup plans whether or not we believe we are on the immediate “bubble.”
Our jobs are at the mercy of so many variables that are all constantly changing, and most of us seem to acknowledge that guessing furlough numbers is pure speculation. What seems lacking is a separation between the emotions of job instability and discussions of hypothetical scenarios and numbers.
What has been beaten into my head after more than 20 years in this industry is that it is unstable and cyclical. Furloughs are part of it. The more one’s well-being (financial and mental) depends upon being employed as a pilot, the more one is at risk of having that wellness interrupted. Being a pilot is both a job and an identity, and I have focused on minimizing my reliance on either for my happiness. Mathteacher’s independence as a “part-time” pilot has allowed him the option to let go and preserve / increase his mental health on his own terms. I submit he has chosen wisely, for himself, and others would be wise to pursue viable backup plans whether or not we believe we are on the immediate “bubble.”
05-09-2020, 02:38 PM
#42
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 75
Um.. didn't you quit?
You truly sound like a Common Core teacher. And now you're posting that UAL will need 9500 pilots?!.. In January of 2022?!
Leave.. take your 'assist' and MBA and leave.
Just another yahoo who 'decided' after all these years to suddenly join APC Forum and share their wisdom.
May 2020 join date.
Motch
You truly sound like a Common Core teacher. And now you're posting that UAL will need 9500 pilots?!.. In January of 2022?!
Leave.. take your 'assist' and MBA and leave.
Just another yahoo who 'decided' after all these years to suddenly join APC Forum and share their wisdom.
May 2020 join date.
Motch
When I read the teacher’s post I read it from the perspective of someone who was offering some analysis to add to the guesses no doubt we’ve all been making as of late and I just said “Ah, cool, but no one knows and his guess was as good as mine or anyone else’s” and moved on.
You might be angry and still in a bit of denial over what’s going on. Maybe not. You also may be supremely confident in your personal assessment of the future of the world, airline industry, United, and your BES. Your “join date” in all of this has little, if anything, to do with any of that.
05-09-2020, 02:48 PM
#43
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2006
Position: B737 CAPT IAH
Posts: 1,130
Sorry again for my idea, like I said, I don't know jack about the internal ways airlines work, just looking at historic customer demand in recessions driving pilot requirements...I was able to change retirement dates to get the 60 hour ESRL so thanks for the idea...allowed me to request the 60 hour ESRL. Did me a really nice favor so thanks.
My point was to just ask folks to take a deep breath and not react to your post or any others on the subject.
Again, be safe and best of luck. Wife taught school and I think the most underpaid job in the USA is a school teacher. I salute you!
Lee
05-09-2020, 03:01 PM
#44
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2013
Posts: 315
Um.. didn't you quit?
You truly sound like a Common Core teacher. And now you're posting that UAL will need 9500 pilots?!.. In January of 2022?!
Leave.. take your 'assist' and MBA and leave.
Just another yahoo who 'decided' after all these years to suddenly join APC Forum and share their wisdom.
May 2020 join date.
Motch
You truly sound like a Common Core teacher. And now you're posting that UAL will need 9500 pilots?!.. In January of 2022?!
Leave.. take your 'assist' and MBA and leave.
Just another yahoo who 'decided' after all these years to suddenly join APC Forum and share their wisdom.
May 2020 join date.
Motch
Who peed in your Wheaties today, man?
05-09-2020, 05:22 PM
#45
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Aug 2008
Position: 787 Captain
Posts: 1,512
I apologize if I upset folks. My sense is the company has a far better feel about who will be gone (a dumb **** math teacher can do something like it in an hour) and it doesn't seem fair not to arm guys with a tool to see what might be as to probabilities. The software is cheap, just look for a Monte Carlo simulation.
To be completely transparent I had a UAL bud take his furlough really hard and end up in a rough spot and I've carried a lot of guilt since he kept the faith and then went out the door without much to work with.
Just going with the numbers, Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. Remember I don't know jack about airline operations, so on top of the numbers I gave as a result you have to peanut butter all the overhead pilots UAL lugs around like PIs, Standard Captains, Management Dudes and Dudettes, Mil Leave, LTDs, etc...so if I say a number of whatever, 9500 in January 2022 then you'll have whatever we carry as overhead, which could be what...another 1000 pilots? I have no idea. Then factor in retirements, and again it could be another few hundred. Someone asked about the unemployment rate...at that time, January 2022 ... if this recession acts like others as far as job recoveries the unemployment rate looks to be about 11-12% U6 with the reported one of 7-7.5%. If we model the 1982 recession...very slow unemployment recovery....the numbers get worse. Pilot employment has a strong connection to unemployment, I know a brilliant flash of the obvious...but that is what drove my model. If you want a good feel for unemployment B of A runs predictions every month that look pretty solid.
To be completely transparent I had a UAL bud take his furlough really hard and end up in a rough spot and I've carried a lot of guilt since he kept the faith and then went out the door without much to work with.
Just going with the numbers, Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. Remember I don't know jack about airline operations, so on top of the numbers I gave as a result you have to peanut butter all the overhead pilots UAL lugs around like PIs, Standard Captains, Management Dudes and Dudettes, Mil Leave, LTDs, etc...so if I say a number of whatever, 9500 in January 2022 then you'll have whatever we carry as overhead, which could be what...another 1000 pilots? I have no idea. Then factor in retirements, and again it could be another few hundred. Someone asked about the unemployment rate...at that time, January 2022 ... if this recession acts like others as far as job recoveries the unemployment rate looks to be about 11-12% U6 with the reported one of 7-7.5%. If we model the 1982 recession...very slow unemployment recovery....the numbers get worse. Pilot employment has a strong connection to unemployment, I know a brilliant flash of the obvious...but that is what drove my model. If you want a good feel for unemployment B of A runs predictions every month that look pretty solid.
05-09-2020, 06:03 PM
#46
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,916
we’ve already lost pilots to suicide over what’s going on. Perhaps some kindness on your part when disagreeing is what was missing - and perhaps it’s the lack of “touch” and tact in your reply that people are responding to.
When I read the teacher’s post I read it from the perspective of someone who was offering some analysis to add to the guesses no doubt we’ve all been making as of late and I just said “Ah, cool, but no one knows and his guess was as good as mine or anyone else’s” and moved on.
You might be angry and still in a bit of denial over what’s going on. Maybe not. You also may be supremely confident in your personal assessment of the future of the world, airline industry, United, and your BES. Your “join date” in all of this has little, if anything, to do with any of that.
When I read the teacher’s post I read it from the perspective of someone who was offering some analysis to add to the guesses no doubt we’ve all been making as of late and I just said “Ah, cool, but no one knows and his guess was as good as mine or anyone else’s” and moved on.
You might be angry and still in a bit of denial over what’s going on. Maybe not. You also may be supremely confident in your personal assessment of the future of the world, airline industry, United, and your BES. Your “join date” in all of this has little, if anything, to do with any of that.
05-09-2020, 06:24 PM
#47
Banned
Joined APC: May 2006
Posts: 540
I apologize if I upset folks. My sense is the company has a far better feel about who will be gone (a dumb **** math teacher can do something like it in an hour) and it doesn't seem fair not to arm guys with a tool to see what might be as to probabilities. The software is cheap, just look for a Monte Carlo simulation.
To be completely transparent I had a UAL bud take his furlough really hard and end up in a rough spot and I've carried a lot of guilt since he kept the faith and then went out the door without much to work with.
Just going with the numbers, Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. Remember I don't know jack about airline operations, so on top of the numbers I gave as a result you have to peanut butter all the overhead pilots UAL lugs around like PIs, Standard Captains, Management Dudes and Dudettes, Mil Leave, LTDs, etc...so if I say a number of whatever, 9500 in January 2022 then you'll have whatever we carry as overhead, which could be what...another 1000 pilots? I have no idea. Then factor in retirements, and again it could be another few hundred. Someone asked about the unemployment rate...at that time, January 2022 ... if this recession acts like others as far as job recoveries the unemployment rate looks to be about 11-12% U6 with the reported one of 7-7.5%. If we model the 1982 recession...very slow unemployment recovery....the numbers get worse. Pilot employment has a strong connection to unemployment, I know a brilliant flash of the obvious...but that is what drove my model. If you want a good feel for unemployment B of A runs predictions every month that look pretty solid.
To be completely transparent I had a UAL bud take his furlough really hard and end up in a rough spot and I've carried a lot of guilt since he kept the faith and then went out the door without much to work with.
Just going with the numbers, Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. Remember I don't know jack about airline operations, so on top of the numbers I gave as a result you have to peanut butter all the overhead pilots UAL lugs around like PIs, Standard Captains, Management Dudes and Dudettes, Mil Leave, LTDs, etc...so if I say a number of whatever, 9500 in January 2022 then you'll have whatever we carry as overhead, which could be what...another 1000 pilots? I have no idea. Then factor in retirements, and again it could be another few hundred. Someone asked about the unemployment rate...at that time, January 2022 ... if this recession acts like others as far as job recoveries the unemployment rate looks to be about 11-12% U6 with the reported one of 7-7.5%. If we model the 1982 recession...very slow unemployment recovery....the numbers get worse. Pilot employment has a strong connection to unemployment, I know a brilliant flash of the obvious...but that is what drove my model. If you want a good feel for unemployment B of A runs predictions every month that look pretty solid.
I agree, no need to apologize! I understand your numbers and caveats, thanks for taking the time to run and post them.
Good luck in your future endeavors.
Cheers,
Biff
05-09-2020, 09:22 PM
#49
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2019
Posts: 496
05-10-2020, 12:27 AM
#50
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2019
Position: CA
Posts: 251
It’ll fall on deaf ears but screw it...I’m not pro management nor pro union. I’m pro democracy. So....
Man, you don’t have to apologize for anything to anyone. That was a very articulate objective analysis of a industry that is in peril by professional educated analysts and frankly the best breakdown and further more, most well thought out independent breakdown of the current situation I’ve seen on any of the threads.
The people complaining are just projecting their fear at you since you weren’t saying what they wanted to hear. It’s ever more so evident by the personal attacks and by calling your credibility into question for a sense of self validation.
They’re the same guys bragging about making in a month what most Americans take 4-6 to make and then want public sympathy and bailouts when those rates cant be sustained without jeopardizing the very job that’s paying their bills.
In the end your numbers will be close and you’ll be owed many a glass of Weller. Good luck in your career as a Professor. You’ll have a few of these shrills in your classes soon enough.
Man, you don’t have to apologize for anything to anyone. That was a very articulate objective analysis of a industry that is in peril by professional educated analysts and frankly the best breakdown and further more, most well thought out independent breakdown of the current situation I’ve seen on any of the threads.
The people complaining are just projecting their fear at you since you weren’t saying what they wanted to hear. It’s ever more so evident by the personal attacks and by calling your credibility into question for a sense of self validation.
They’re the same guys bragging about making in a month what most Americans take 4-6 to make and then want public sympathy and bailouts when those rates cant be sustained without jeopardizing the very job that’s paying their bills.
In the end your numbers will be close and you’ll be owed many a glass of Weller. Good luck in your career as a Professor. You’ll have a few of these shrills in your classes soon enough.
Sorry again for my idea, like I said, I don't know jack about the internal ways airlines work, just looking at historic customer demand in recessions driving pilot requirements...I was able to change retirement dates to get the 60 hour ESRL so thanks for the idea...allowed me to request the 60 hour ESRL. Did me a really nice favor so thanks.
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