Originally Posted by horrido27

Um.. didn't you quit?
You truly sound like a Common Core teacher. And now you're posting that UAL will need 9500 pilots?!.. In January of 2022?!
Leave.. take your 'assist' and MBA and leave.

Just another yahoo who 'decided' after all these years to suddenly join APC Forum and share their wisdom.
May 2020 join date.

Motch

Originally Posted by mathteacher

As to background, standard issue UAL early 2000 hire that was going to be a Shuttle Captain that won the Lottery. Always LAX based so never commuted. First post here ... wanted to see if I could help. My advice big picture...UAL is now a part-time job. I don't mean to disparage the profession but my light came on as the furlough notice hit post 9/11 that I had a check from UAL for another few months and after that, it was up to me. I looked at other flying jobs but had no desire to move to Dubai. At that point I just switched gears, took summary of my skill sets and focused completely on my "real job". For me, I had a degree in mathematics so I dusted that off and found a teacher credentialing program I did while sitting reserve. Since my new career was as a high school math teacher (yes the pay is as pitiful as you've heard) UAL took a back seat. I was lucky to get hired before the furlough arrived. Now here is the key, at least for me. This is back in 2002...

I never looked back at UAL again. For the next 12 years I was (am) a teacher. I did the "cup of coffee" return in 2008...landed from Hawaii after the last leg of OE and received my second furlough...okay dumb on me, Tilton did seem like such a nice guy...Lesson learned. I taught again until 2014 when things looked stable I keep teaching but UAL stayed my art time job .

I'm not into predictions I'm into preparations. I am preparing for my third furlough. I worry that I will lose the teaching job as well since education budgets are crushed, and my wife is a teacher as well. But my free advise...UAL is one of teh best part time gigs you can find. I apologize for the long post...

Originally Posted by mathteacher

Question was asked...how to get the schedules matched...I bid Thursday through Monday AM. First class is 1100 Monday. Now if a conflict occurs between teaching and UAL teaching wins because UAL is a part time job. Yes I also teach college online for a couple MBA programs. This is a big mind set shift because I am a math teacher that flies airplanes not a pilot that teaches math. I don't have the best attendance record with United. But here is the big picture...over 30-years teaching (which I love) my total compensation will be about $3m (real old fashioned pension). Over the possible 25 years I might have had with UAL my best case compensation would maybe be $3.5M...with a whole lot of churn.

Originally Posted by mathteacher

Couldn't express it better! I actually loved UAL when I came back in 2014. I was certain I'd get furloughed again because of the same incompetence at the management level but the last 5-years have been great. Flying to the Islands on the 75s has been a vacation every weekend. Coming in over Malibu as the sun is coming up into LAX is about as pretty a view as one would want. UAL is a lot more fun to come back to than to be at.

I just ran the numbers for myself yesterday and I'll be better off leaving UAL than staying, though I'm 5000 from the bottom...so like you said, life won't be fun if I'm not furloughed anyway. I can make more on the outside that I think I'll be paid to sit reserve on the Bus and then do the 4-legs to the Omaha layover. Yesterday I called the CPO and said bye and mailed in my iPad and vest. The CPO was sort of amazed a guy would check out early and gave me the "hang in there together" speech. But in good conscience I can't sit knowing I'm taking a job from someone that needs it. I wish all you guys luck. I do have a couple First Officer hats still in the bag if anyone wants one!

Originally Posted by mathteacher

I'd have to be honest and say I really don't care about furlough pay. As a 22 year FO pay that would be maybe ??? $75,000??? best case. If I had to sit reserve and give up my day job I'd lose at least that every year I delay. So in my case to answer your question I wouldn't factor it in because it would be irrelevant for my long term plan. All I have is history to go on and my own limited history shows to put confidence in events outside my control. The furlough pay would be outside my control.

Originally Posted by mathteacher

For me, in my universe, no. The job I'm in will require me to quit all other employers. Right now I'm paid "per diem" as non-tenured faculty...By making the move to the tenure track I have to renounce all other work. So great question and it did cross my mind but I agreed to not work at UAL anymore after August 15th.

Originally Posted by mathteacher

Like I said above, I'm moving to a different career path and have to quit UAL to do so. In normal pay standards (non-airline professional) the school is really taking care of me by offering me the tenure track so I'm thinking probably 15 years teaching in exchange for 9 years at UAL, maybe. The school has a pension, UAL has whatever we can make of it. Given my luck the age 67 thing will kick in like the age 65 thing did during the last wave of furloughs...not that I'm suggesting that, but it would be my luck. So it is time...Everybody fly safe, been an honor to work here for the last 5 years. Have a Longboard at Duke's in Lihue if the chance ever arises in the future.

Originally Posted by mathteacher

You guys are all right on the money...if I wanted to be an airline pilot. I just don't want the profession anymore. I found one I like much more. The last week was just the nudge I knew I needed. Plus I was going to quit the day they took away my leather jacket and make me wear a purple Air Force uniform. Whether I could squeeze a $100,000 from UAL or get nothing just doesn't matter.

I've had every line in the log book filled exactly the way anyone could wish...low levels in the A-7 (anyone remember the SLUF?), green ink for some combat time, more night carrier landings than I ever wanted, test pilot gig, great days on the Shuttle...Santa Barbara layover at the Peppertree anyone? Then on to nothing but Island flying for over 5 years. I've had the sweetest gig going. Just time to go to a new career. Thanks again. I've always been a money on the table guy anyway, spent most of mine on whiskey and women, then I wasted the rest. Actually quoting an LAX Shuttle Captain on that one.

Originally Posted by mathteacher

Very nice of you. Even with the 2 furloughs its been a super nice job with great folks. What other job pays you to spend 25 hours in Hawaii and work another job, or two on the side? To all, never believe you can't do far better financially outside UAL than inside. As pilots we tend to have a really good work ethic and pick up things like programming (and NURSING!) really quickly. For the guy thinking about nursing,,,absolutely...there are two Nurse Practitioners in the distinguished class of 2172 that I know of. Both are loving their lives...they do UAL T-Th then work hospital gigs over the weekend. Before you know it you'll have your own start up going, or working as a Charge Nurse, whatever. Plus no one gives you a dirty look when you don't wear a hat! Be well...

Originally Posted by mathteacher

As a parting effort to assist the folks having to make a tough decision I had my MBA class (I teach Operations Analysis and Decision Science) make predictions on how many pilots UAL would need January 2022 using mathematical/economic models from 2001 and 2008. All they could use was the relationships between the real economy and airline pilot numbers at UAL. No factoring in Covid, just economic data and forecasting software called "Crystal Ball Problem Solver". They used three programs...Monte Carlo Simulation, Simplex Method and Regression Analysis. Data from the real economy was unemployment rate, disposable income, savings rate, credit card debt, inflation, oil prices, real estate prices and household income. They did not know any nuances about how TK works, or pilots retiring or any airline stuff. They used only the 2001 time frame, and the 2008 time frame to build their model. They used capacity at the airline as an equivalent measure for # of pilots which took out different airplane types. There were 6 teams of 4 students each that worked the problem. Students backgrounds were in HR, Finance, Supply Chain and the military. No pilots in the group so completely naive. I provided the number of pilots from public sources for 2001, 2008 and today. We used the real unemployment rates, the U6 rate, instead of the headline number which is usually 5% lower. As an example our real U6 now is about 20%, not 15%. Did not look at all at Legacy Cal, just old UAL alone.

Take it or leave it, garbage in garbage out but the best I could think of to assist in the decision process....90% confidence factor which is so-so for corporate decisions...80% being high risk, 95% being low risk...

Student answers were within 500 pilots for each team...On January 2022 UAL will need a high of 10,150 and a low of 7, 450. Most likely, the highest probability is around 9500. For what it is worth to assist. Here is the software ... I think UAL is using the same software but likely with a more focused model. https://www.crystalballservices.com/...Suite-OptQuest

My advice, find a good ops analyst, or if you guys have an MBA or know an MBA dust off the Opes text you used as a door stop for you masters and run your own numbers. If I'm close I hope it helps. If I'm way off my apologies.

Originally Posted by sleeves

If you don’t like what he is writing, then don’t read it. Seems like a guy that has been through this before just trying to give advice. I think you owe him an apology....

Originally Posted by horrido27

I had bet that it would be modified downward sometime end of next week!

Originally Posted by sleeves

If you don’t like what he is writing, then don’t read it. Seems like a guy that has been through this before just trying to give advice. I think you owe him an apology....

Originally Posted by El Guapo

What’s the point of running staffing models without using the “nuances” of training & retirements? They play a huuuge role in figuring out staffing, along with people out on various leaves and LTA. Are u talking 9500 “active” pilots? Or total? I appreciate the effort but it truly sounds like garbage in garbage out.

Originally Posted by horrido27

Based on MT's whopping 13 posts since 2 May when he created a user name-
2000 UAL Hire, 20 years here, 2 furloughs, believes he will be furloughed a 3rd time (believe he is senior to me.. )
756 in LAX. Right seat based on his 'work schedule'.
Math Teacher since 2002.
55 or 56 yrs old,
Considers United as a Part Time Job?! But also worried 'That I will lose my teaching job'.
Resigned from United on 4 May 20.

And now is 'assisting' our fellow pilots with MBA data that shows will need 9500 pilots in Jan 22.
Come on.
Just figuring out how many pilots we will need is nearly impossible from our standpoint since we don't have all the data and the game plan that management does.
How much international flying requiring IRO's (Bunkies)?
How much is mainline flying.. how much is Express?
What will the economy look like for the US? What about the World?
How many other airlines go under thereby allowing United the chance to grab some of those passengers?
Is it 9500 ACTIVE Pilots? Because we know there is a difference between Total and Active.

Some of his highlights-





















Yes, we all have 'a right' to post on an anonymous forum and pitch our doom and gloom if we want to. But then others have a right to point out inconsistencies and/or falsehoods.
The guy quit. I get it. A few others already called him out on that choice and the strangeness of it.. but it's his life.
But to now post that his data shows 9500 pilots needed in 18 months to 'help' the bottom 1000-2000 pilots make a decision?
BTW, if the economy is going to be that bad in 18 months.. um, what should these 1-2K Professional Pilots do to find work? Nursing School? Teaching School? come on man.

Yeah, maybe I have a problem with guys who tout Doom & Gloom and have only been on the Forum for a week
Always
Motch

Originally Posted by mathteacher

I apologize if I upset folks. My sense is the company has a far better feel about who will be gone (a dumb **** math teacher can do something like it in an hour) and it doesn't seem fair not to arm guys with a tool to see what might be as to probabilities. The software is cheap, just look for a Monte Carlo simulation.

To be completely transparent I had a UAL bud take his furlough really hard and end up in a rough spot and I've carried a lot of guilt since he kept the faith and then went out the door without much to work with.

Just going with the numbers, Sometimes they work and sometimes they don't. Remember I don't know jack about airline operations, so on top of the numbers I gave as a result you have to peanut butter all the overhead pilots UAL lugs around like PIs, Standard Captains, Management Dudes and Dudettes, Mil Leave, LTDs, etc...so if I say a number of whatever, 9500 in January 2022 then you'll have whatever we carry as overhead, which could be what...another 1000 pilots? I have no idea. Then factor in retirements, and again it could be another few hundred. Someone asked about the unemployment rate...at that time, January 2022 ... if this recession acts like others as far as job recoveries the unemployment rate looks to be about 11-12% U6 with the reported one of 7-7.5%. If we model the 1982 recession...very slow unemployment recovery....the numbers get worse. Pilot employment has a strong connection to unemployment, I know a brilliant flash of the obvious...but that is what drove my model. If you want a good feel for unemployment B of A runs predictions every month that look pretty solid.

Originally Posted by horrido27

Um.. didn't you quit?
You truly sound like a Common Core teacher. And now you're posting that UAL will need 9500 pilots?!.. In January of 2022?!
Leave.. take your 'assist' and MBA and leave.

Just another yahoo who 'decided' after all these years to suddenly join APC Forum and share their wisdom.
May 2020 join date.

Motch

Originally Posted by LeeFXDWG

Yes, but you said in a earlier post you resigned from UAL on 5/4. With the new ESRL I hope you realize that was a poor decision purely from a dollars standpoint.

So, as one with a past 10 years working for the SSC, not now but work in other areas, caution you against posting such numbers. Your bias may be motivated to validate your decision.

Just some thoughts and appreciate the work that went into it. Bottom line, Manning is strictly based on block hours! The question is where the company targets those 6 and 12 months down the road. Always been that way in my 22+ years. You and I and all of us don’t know that number. And, IMO, the company will leave some “fat” to allow a flex to increase down range. The above comes from when I did SSC work during the last two furloughs.

Be well and good luck with your choices.

Lee