Airhoss

First off “reserve is a choice”... Oh the irony! For anybody who has thought that to be true, let this be a wake up call. And yes I know that quitting is a choice.. Let’s just skip that stupidity and agree that’s not on the table for this discussion. We need a sustainable, non abusive reserve system at this airline ASAP! This is no longer an issue we can put off on the JR. guys and gals and call it a choice or “paying your dues”. Being forced back on reserve and especially for those now forced to commute to it should NOT be a sentence of corporal punishment. We have to fix our abusive reserve system!

In 2008 I was an A-320 Captain based in LAX just prior to the MAD (Merger Announcement Date) I was displaced out of the left seat. It doesn’t matter how long you were a captain or a WB F/O or how many people have been furloughed behind you, for ISL purposes you are where you are on the MAD. Those are the cold, hard facts.

This will be displacement number 7 or 8 ( I’ve kind of lost count) for me and number two off the left seat if it happens. Same circus, same act, slightly different clowns this time.

My guess is that we might well see another round of mergers and acquisitions after this mess is over.

In 2020 I find myself in a very similar situation though I haven’t officially been displaced as of yet, the writing is on the wall. Going on 23 years I will very likely be unable to hold a captain seat anywhere in the company when this all shakes out. Many of our pilots will be on the street.

A merger after massive displacements and furloughs is going to be a major ISL nightmare.

Just some not so random thoughts on this sunny day in May 2020.

panpanpan

What do you suspect will be the mergers/acquisitions? UAL already has a huge presence in NY with the EWR base. That would make a B6 acquisition very difficult.

cadetdrivr

It depends if EWR and JFK are considered separate markets.

One could make strong arguments either way.

As an aside, I strongly suspect the entire industry will look quite different in 12 months so the combinations that don't seem plausible today could be possible then. And vise versa.

I think Airhoss nailed it and there will likely be another round of consolidation---we just don't know who is gonna hook up who and the circumstances.

Airhoss

I agree with cadetdrvr, the shotgun weddings are yet to be known. But I suspect some are going to happen. If nothing else some airlines are going to die and the bones will be picked over. I’m not 100% sure we aren’t on the terminal path at this point. Nothing surprises me anymore.

RJDio

It’ll be spirit, if the company pursues an acquisition.

Cheap stock, low market cap, young airbus fleet with future deliveries. Little overlap, gates at AAL hubs, and a Florida market.

panpanpan

I think the stock argument is questionable as UAL stock has been cut to 1/3rd of what it was as well. What about the fact that the product is nothing alike?

RJDio

Yet, UAL stock price is 3x that of spirits (not meant to be a slight). I imagine, because of UALs size and market share, it inspires more confidence from investors than spirits.

They can simply do a stock swap. Regarding the product, it’ll be irrelevant initially. Ticket prices at both airlines will be similarly priced during this downturn.

It would also keep the NB fleet diversified. A little insurance from the future iterations of the guppy to come.

Ihateusernames

Stock price and market cap are different stories. Price doesn't mean anything. It depends on outstanding shares compared to market cap.

copy

I agree. However, when discussing M&A you’d go with enterprise value, not market cap.

atooraya

Do you think United will by Spirit and just rename that flying fleet “Ted”? That may work well as a LCC sub fleet flown by United pilots.