Displacement Bid 20-07D
05-02-2020, 08:58 AM
#21
Orbis Non Sufficit
Joined APC: Oct 2015
Posts: 735
A lot of people mention the “time it will take” to retrain people. Unlike the last two times, where they still needed to operate the semblance of a schedule, this time it doesn’t matter. Aside from the fact you are paying a pilot, it doesn’t matter if it takes a month or a year to do a retrain. We are flying at 5% and will be at, say, 30% by the end of the year....if we’re lucky. That pilot is NOT NEEDED in his/her displacement seat. They could furlough basically every one of the 4500 in October without having conducted one hour of retraining and still have plenty of people in the appropriate seats to cover the block hours.
05-02-2020, 09:35 AM
#23
On Reserve
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 17
What planes does it show will be removed?
05-02-2020, 09:39 AM
#24
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2013
Position: 737/FO
Posts: 195
we’re proud of you for knowing more than everyone else. congratulations you win!
Watch the end of the movie “The Big Short” for your moment of clarity. what you’re so proud of being “right” about is going to put 5000 on people on the street. So once again, congratulations, you were ABSOLUTELY right.
and that sir is ALL you get to be!!!!!!!!!!
05-02-2020, 09:46 AM
#25
New Hire
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 1
I have to admit, I’ve been reading these posts for a while, but have never commented on anything. My husband is a 737 FO in ORD. Around 4,000 seniority. I was hoping for the best, but after the displacement announcement today, I just opened up a bottle of wine and cried. We have two kids to think of, and I’m currently a SAHM. I have a RN license but haven’t worked in 4 years, so I’m a bit rusty, but at least we have that to fall back on. We have about a year’s worth of living expenses in savings, but I’m worried that won’t be enough to get us by for the duration of the furlough, and I really don’t want to deplete our savings account. I’m already talking to my husband about selling the house and downsizing, pulling our kids out of sports, etc., but he says I’m overreacting, and he doesn’t want to traumatize our kids. He doesn’t think all of these furloughs will happen at once. I’m praying for all of you, and I hope we all make it through this horrific time. Stay healthy and safe.
05-02-2020, 09:52 AM
#26
Line Holder
Joined APC: Sep 2012
Position: UALFO 737
Posts: 67
I have to admit, I’ve been reading these posts for a while, but have never commented on anything. My husband is a 737 FO in ORD. Around 4,000 seniority. I was hoping for the best, but after the displacement announcement today, I just opened up a bottle of wine and cried. We have two kids to think of, and I’m currently a SAHM. I have a RN license but haven’t worked in 4 years, so I’m a bit rusty, but at least we have that to fall back on. We have about a year’s worth of living expenses in savings, but I’m worried that won’t be enough to get us by for the duration of the furlough, and I really don’t want to deplete our savings account. I’m already talking to my husband about selling the house and downsizing, pulling our kids out of sports, etc., but he says I’m overreacting, and he doesn’t want to traumatize our kids. He doesn’t think all of these furloughs will happen at once. I’m praying for all of you, and I hope we all make it through this horrific time. Stay healthy and safe.
05-02-2020, 10:21 AM
#28
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2010
Position: Left - Dodge Caravan
Posts: 357
I'm still digesting the eye popping displacement numbers, but 4000 on the street is not going to happen for a long time (or ever I think). Small example -
Take a look at IAH 787 FO where they are not displacing any CAs and displacing just 9 FOs at or below seniority number 6801. Now consider IAH 777, which is closing for now with 94 CAs and 169 FOs. Of those 777 CAs, all but five of them could displace to 787 CA in IAH, and I think it is a good bet most will do so (along with a handful of 756 CAs). Of the 169 777 FOs, 120 are senior enough to displace into IAH 787. And of course, there are WB guys from other bases that might just displace into IAH 787. I don't know what they will do with a follow on displacement, but my take from this one tidbit is that 787 IAH is being set to possibly grow. This jives with our continuing 787 deliveries and what was said in Bryan's note about the 787 being "the workhorse of our international operation for the forseeable future". It will take forever to train all these guys, time for a recovery to take hold I hope.
When the final results come out from this bid and we see the cascade of guys back into the NB fleets, I think it will give a better idea of the scale of any future furloughs. I wouldn't be surprised if someone starts trying to figure it out in the meantime.
Take a look at IAH 787 FO where they are not displacing any CAs and displacing just 9 FOs at or below seniority number 6801. Now consider IAH 777, which is closing for now with 94 CAs and 169 FOs. Of those 777 CAs, all but five of them could displace to 787 CA in IAH, and I think it is a good bet most will do so (along with a handful of 756 CAs). Of the 169 777 FOs, 120 are senior enough to displace into IAH 787. And of course, there are WB guys from other bases that might just displace into IAH 787. I don't know what they will do with a follow on displacement, but my take from this one tidbit is that 787 IAH is being set to possibly grow. This jives with our continuing 787 deliveries and what was said in Bryan's note about the 787 being "the workhorse of our international operation for the forseeable future". It will take forever to train all these guys, time for a recovery to take hold I hope.
When the final results come out from this bid and we see the cascade of guys back into the NB fleets, I think it will give a better idea of the scale of any future furloughs. I wouldn't be surprised if someone starts trying to figure it out in the meantime.
This displacement will almost certainly be followed by several more that are large scale.
Things could bounce back much sooner, offering early retirements could significantly reduce this number, and bringing outsourced regional flying back will help as well.
As pilots we prepare for the worse on every flight from preflight takeoff performance, to landing fuel diversion options. Although the chances of V1 engine failure are slim, the significant impact they can cause warrants that we be fully prepared for one. This is similar. Please prepare for the 4000 number but hope that the actual number is zero.
SP
05-02-2020, 10:21 AM
#29
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: 787
Posts: 3,202
LOL. you’re mad at me! I’m not the one displacing and ruining people’s lives. I just simply GUESSED at what I thought they’d cut in a thread full of guessing and caught grief then. And again now. You’re all mad at the wrong people. But whatever. Carry on with your anger.
no one knows what the final numbers are for each base and seat. There are so many VERY senior pilots displacing in this bid do to very senior category closings. The company may accept displacements into some catagories and not downsize them again on the next bid. This bid does NOT represent a reasonable furlough number.....at least not yet.
but make sure you gloat again her after displacement bid 3
05-02-2020, 10:31 AM
#30
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2017
Posts: 219
You think chance of a furlough is similar to a V1 cut? There's wishful thinking and then there's this guy. Hoping for the best for all of you guys.
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