cadetdrivr

The problem with predicting "the number" is inherent to the unique situation. We've never been here before.

The company has ingeniously (not that we like it) figured out a solution to the restrictions in the UPA that provides maximum flexibility to the company. This would not work in normal times, but we are not in normal times. Thus, they can pretty easily furlough anywhere from 0% to 20% on Oct 1 with only minimal pain for an additional 10% beyond that. If they need to furlough more than that, it means nobody is flying so trained crews are not an issue anyway.

Meanwhile, everybody displaced to a narrow body will only require a short course when they return to their previous aircraft during the rebound. The company can move staffing levels in any direction with lots of atypical flexibility permitting a much more rapid 'return to normal' if that occurs.

But for us pilots, we can only guess what staffing levels will be required this fall and for next summer. If it helps, and it doesn't, I don't think anybody else knows that number for sure either. Everybody is guessing and nobody knows.

BMEP100

One can only dream

coryk

As a fellow FedEx guy, you (respectfully) really need to shut the hell up. Go back to the FedEx boards and argue/complain there.

Empathy? Humility? Ever hear those terms?

The stillest

anything beyond “next Tuesday” is long term planning for airlines

4 entire months plus change will elapse until October 1st. That’s a long time to run so don’t get too down just yet

Huell

Just go ugly early ... Works.

Aquaticus

30% less than 2019 numbers in summer of 2021 would include 800 pilots gone to retirement, maybe 200 or so to medical outs, whatever furlough mitigation or early outs the union comes up with, and sprinkle in an insanely expensive process.c I wouldn't call it optimistic that 2300 number is still a lot of guys trying to provide for their families and includes myself. If you furlough a pilot you can core4 them as much as you want but you have lost them forever. Just think of the cost of icey cold guppies and two engine taxi outs for 30 years. A lot of ballgame ahead.

Vernon Demerest

So let me see if I understand you: if you get furloughed, you are going to return but never operate efficiently again? Okay, how about those of us that get downgraded and lose the pay etc associated do the same while you are out because we are “angry “ as well thus prolonging your return? Or, realistically how about none of us take this personally (as hard is that is) and realize that it is just a numbers game that unfortunately we are losing at present. Last I read, the ALPA Code of Ethics frowned on such behavior. I get it. I’m disappointed right now as well but I’m not interested in costing this company even more money by operating in a manner that does so. Sometimes we just need to blow off some steam. I completely understand if that is what you are doing. I really hope you don’t get furloughed. I spent most of May 3 going through the list of displacement names then read the CCS staffing list from bottom up four thousand numbers (picked that number at random...). It was painful seeing all the names of people I shared the cockpit with who each had stories I remember. Nobody did anything to deserve this. It just sucks.

Itsajob

I don’t think anyone thinks for a second that 2,300 is a small number, or that families won’t be affected. Training displacements when pilots are just sitting around isn’t nearly as expensive as other times when we were retiring a fleet, but demand was still high. It would stink, but they could easily chop 3,000 on October 1 if revenue is still down. That would allow them to drop a bunch of payroll/benefit expense off of the books quickly. The recall process will cost money, but that won’t happen until sufficient revenue is coming in the door. The other labor groups could be let go even more quickly. There isn’t that much time or expense in training ramp workers for example. If the company is at X% on October 1, those groups get slashed 100-X% day one. It isn’t what we want, but what the company will need to do. Starting October 1, they are going to get all cost, including pilots, to a level that allows the bleeding to stop. Furlough and displacements stink. Many of us have been down that road before, some more than once. I hope that you don’t get furloughed, and I get that you’re just lashing out, but if you do, I hope that when you come back you will act professional. Others have been through furloughs, bankruptcy, and a merger. They still act professional, and I expect that most people will as well.

ReadOnly7

I will get furloughed waaaaay before Aquaticus, and I think his post must have been satire. I mean.....who has ever heard of an “ice cold guppy”?? I call BS!!


*all joking aside....please be professional while we are on the street, so that we can come back as soon as possible. Even though I will have PTSD from this industry, I will be extra grateful to have this job when I get back.

GolferNJ

I agree with everything you said except this. OM and SK put us in this situation. They have squandered every penny earned on our backs since they took over. They could have been paying down debt, hoarding cash and preparing the airline to support its employees in the next downturn. Instead they rewarded shareholders (and themselves) and required taxpayers to save us. Nobody could have predicted a 90% drop, but we would be in this situation with a 40% drop and no taxpayer assistance.