Displacement Bid 20-07D
05-12-2020, 08:08 AM
#261
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2013
Posts: 204
Sounds like the type of guy that wasn’t sure he made the right choice leaving a legacy for FedEx until now... and now he can finally sleep easy at night. If not, he’ll let us know on this thread at some point. A tool regardless.
05-12-2020, 08:28 AM
#262
Orbis Non Sufficit
Joined APC: Oct 2015
Posts: 735
Mid-Displacement update based on today's snapshot - with 4151 or 88% of displacees having bids in there are currently 2124 guys who will wind up in Bus/737 FO seats. So, if the trends hold the high end of those winding up on the Bus/737 would be about 2400... on top of the 3000+ FOs there already.
Before they rescinded 309 displacements, I'd estimated a high end of 2678 forced into NB seats - Displacement Bid 20-07D Some of the NB bases guys are bidding to are significantly different than my first guesstimate, here the current totals.
CLE - 39
DCA - 396
DEN - 325
EWR - 378
GUM - 16
IAH - 252
LAX - 202
ORD - 274
SFO - 349
Here's the part that's grim, we've hired about 2350 since 23 Jan 2016 (if you don't know why this date is significant, see 1-c-1-h). In his displacement announcement, BQ said "there should be enough information conveyed in this displacement for you to make informed conclusions". All by itself, this first displacement is setting us up almost perfectly to cut guys up to that hiring date. I've made an informed conclusion and am gonna throw up in my mouth a bit now.
Before they rescinded 309 displacements, I'd estimated a high end of 2678 forced into NB seats - Displacement Bid 20-07D Some of the NB bases guys are bidding to are significantly different than my first guesstimate, here the current totals.
CLE - 39
DCA - 396
DEN - 325
EWR - 378
GUM - 16
IAH - 252
LAX - 202
ORD - 274
SFO - 349
Here's the part that's grim, we've hired about 2350 since 23 Jan 2016 (if you don't know why this date is significant, see 1-c-1-h). In his displacement announcement, BQ said "there should be enough information conveyed in this displacement for you to make informed conclusions". All by itself, this first displacement is setting us up almost perfectly to cut guys up to that hiring date. I've made an informed conclusion and am gonna throw up in my mouth a bit now.
05-12-2020, 08:56 AM
#263
Banned
Joined APC: Mar 2018
Posts: 1,358
Mid-Displacement update based on today's snapshot - with 4151 or 88% of displacees having bids in there are currently 2124 guys who will wind up in Bus/737 FO seats. So, if the trends hold the high end of those winding up on the Bus/737 would be about 2400... on top of the 3000+ FOs there already.
Before they rescinded 309 displacements, I'd estimated a high end of 2678 forced into NB seats - Displacement Bid 20-07D Some of the NB bases guys are bidding to are significantly different than my first guesstimate, here the current totals.
CLE - 39
DCA - 396
DEN - 325
EWR - 378
GUM - 16
IAH - 252
LAX - 202
ORD - 274
SFO - 349
Here's the part that's grim, we've hired about 2350 since 23 Jan 2016 (if you don't know why this date is significant, see 1-c-1-h). In his displacement announcement, BQ said "there should be enough information conveyed in this displacement for you to make informed conclusions". All by itself, this first displacement is setting us up almost perfectly to cut guys up to that hiring date. I've made an informed conclusion and am gonna throw up in my mouth a bit now.
Before they rescinded 309 displacements, I'd estimated a high end of 2678 forced into NB seats - Displacement Bid 20-07D Some of the NB bases guys are bidding to are significantly different than my first guesstimate, here the current totals.
CLE - 39
DCA - 396
DEN - 325
EWR - 378
GUM - 16
IAH - 252
LAX - 202
ORD - 274
SFO - 349
Here's the part that's grim, we've hired about 2350 since 23 Jan 2016 (if you don't know why this date is significant, see 1-c-1-h). In his displacement announcement, BQ said "there should be enough information conveyed in this displacement for you to make informed conclusions". All by itself, this first displacement is setting us up almost perfectly to cut guys up to that hiring date. I've made an informed conclusion and am gonna throw up in my mouth a bit now.
05-12-2020, 09:19 AM
#264
Get me outta here...
Joined APC: Oct 2008
Position: Boeing right seat
Posts: 1,541
No one? There's always a few that embarrass the rest of us.
05-12-2020, 09:23 AM
#265
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2019
Posts: 432
So as we see roughly 90% of bids are in and we have these cooked percentages shown with the snapshots, what are we do expect for bid 2? I’m currently showing around 35-45% on a variety of NB FO seats. Obviously those numbers are going to be slashed on displacement 2.
Is there any way to begin to formulate just how much of a slash these NB FO seats will see for bid 2? I haven’t paid attention to other seats with this bid but I imagine NB CA is also bloated with more CA’s than they know what to do with right? So with that said, those of us seeing 35% now on NB FO should plan to see another huge hit for bid 2 right? I’m expecting to get knocked down another 35-45%, which is starting to look like a best case scenario if I don’t get furloughed.
Would anyone else care to chime in to let me know if this is a reasonable outlook to have for what displacement bid 2 could look like?
Is there any way to begin to formulate just how much of a slash these NB FO seats will see for bid 2? I haven’t paid attention to other seats with this bid but I imagine NB CA is also bloated with more CA’s than they know what to do with right? So with that said, those of us seeing 35% now on NB FO should plan to see another huge hit for bid 2 right? I’m expecting to get knocked down another 35-45%, which is starting to look like a best case scenario if I don’t get furloughed.
Would anyone else care to chime in to let me know if this is a reasonable outlook to have for what displacement bid 2 could look like?
05-12-2020, 09:27 AM
#266
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2015
Position: Captain
Posts: 1,561
So as we see roughly 90% of bids are in and we have these cooked percentages shown with the snapshots, what are we do expect for bid 2? I’m currently showing around 35-45% on a variety of NB FO seats. Obviously those numbers are going to be slashed on displacement 2.
Is there any way to begin to formulate just how much of a slash these NB FO seats will see for bid 2? I haven’t paid attention to other seats with this bid but I imagine NB CA is also bloated with more CA’s than they know what to do with right? So with that said, those of us seeing 35% now on NB FO should plan to see another huge hit for bid 2 right? I’m expecting to get knocked down another 35-45%, which is starting to look like a best case scenario if I don’t get furloughed.
Would anyone else care to chime in to let me know if this is a reasonable outlook to have for what displacement bid 2 could look like?
Is there any way to begin to formulate just how much of a slash these NB FO seats will see for bid 2? I haven’t paid attention to other seats with this bid but I imagine NB CA is also bloated with more CA’s than they know what to do with right? So with that said, those of us seeing 35% now on NB FO should plan to see another huge hit for bid 2 right? I’m expecting to get knocked down another 35-45%, which is starting to look like a best case scenario if I don’t get furloughed.
Would anyone else care to chime in to let me know if this is a reasonable outlook to have for what displacement bid 2 could look like?
I highly doubt it you will get furlough
my 2 c
05-12-2020, 09:34 AM
#267
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,639
So as we see roughly 90% of bids are in and we have these cooked percentages shown with the snapshots, what are we do expect for bid 2? I’m currently showing around 35-45% on a variety of NB FO seats. Obviously those numbers are going to be slashed on displacement 2.
In the interim, there's no place else for the narrow body FOs to displace to. You get to make your own educated guess what your ultimate % will really be.
Future displacements will tweak the staffing in other categories.
Last edited by cadetdrivr; 05-12-2020 at 09:52 AM.
05-12-2020, 09:51 AM
#268
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: 767/757 CA
Posts: 2,701
So as we see roughly 90% of bids are in and we have these cooked percentages shown with the snapshots, what are we do expect for bid 2? I’m currently showing around 35-45% on a variety of NB FO seats. Obviously those numbers are going to be slashed on displacement 2.
Is there any way to begin to formulate just how much of a slash these NB FO seats will see for bid 2? I haven’t paid attention to other seats with this bid but I imagine NB CA is also bloated with more CA’s than they know what to do with right? So with that said, those of us seeing 35% now on NB FO should plan to see another huge hit for bid 2 right? I’m expecting to get knocked down another 35-45%, which is starting to look like a best case scenario if I don’t get furloughed.
Would anyone else care to chime in to let me know if this is a reasonable outlook to have for what displacement bid 2 could look like?
Is there any way to begin to formulate just how much of a slash these NB FO seats will see for bid 2? I haven’t paid attention to other seats with this bid but I imagine NB CA is also bloated with more CA’s than they know what to do with right? So with that said, those of us seeing 35% now on NB FO should plan to see another huge hit for bid 2 right? I’m expecting to get knocked down another 35-45%, which is starting to look like a best case scenario if I don’t get furloughed.
Would anyone else care to chime in to let me know if this is a reasonable outlook to have for what displacement bid 2 could look like?
05-12-2020, 10:13 AM
#269
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2015
Posts: 64
Divide the min/max # by your # in base could give a ballpark baseline. Assumining they furlough those those extras on the NB. It seems there are over and unders in all seats and ac up the list and how that shakes out in round two is unknown and to complicated for me to predict but I'd like to hear other thoughts.
05-12-2020, 11:00 AM
#270
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: 777FO
Posts: 770
Being that 30% of our list is around 4,000 pilots, considering what is going on, and how many analysts predict the recovery will play out, “only furloughing 2,300” could be viewed as an optimistic position. Furlough notices can go out in June for an October 1 effective date. From how I read the furlough section of the contract, none of those pilots would need to be trained according to a displacement award. Simply holding them at their current pay and then furloughing will be cheaper than training them. It will also free up slots at TK for those who will survive this cut. I don’t like how this is turning out, but this bid is definitely a pretty effective way to reduce quickly while adhering to the contract.
Is there any way to begin to formulate just how much of a slash these NB FO seats will see for bid 2? I haven’t paid attention to other seats with this bid but I imagine NB CA is also bloated with more CA’s than they know what to do with right? So with that said, those of us seeing 35% now on NB FO should plan to see another huge hit for bid 2 right? I’m expecting to get knocked down another 35-45%, which is starting to look like a best case scenario if I don’t get furloughed.
Like Motch says, it really is too soon to tell how this will end up. But now you've got me thinking about how many guys might be displacing to NB CA....
P.S. Motch - Holy Schnikes! Reading your dissection of Mathteacher, remind me never to get on your bad side! Glad you are recovering.
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