Furlough estimate
06-20-2020, 04:57 AM
#922
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2008
Position: 787 Captain
Posts: 1,512
*too late to edit...
ISL arbitrations are anything but predictable though. As much as long/tall fences make sense to me and you, arbitrators have been hesitant to use fences recently (IIRC they even stated so in the UAL/CAL ISL), instead tweaking other levers to get a desired result.
It's a waste of time and effort right now to dive into this rabbit hole, however, it's important to understand the underlying arguments that prevailed in the UAL/CAL ISL since they would likely serve as the framework for any future arbitration. The big flashing items I see are 1) Accurate seniority list at Merger Closing Date, 2) Stovepiped Status and Category of pilots at Merger Closing Date, and 3) Stovepiped Longevity of pilots at Merger Closing Date. Two very important concepts to understand are 'Stovepipe' lists & 'snapshot date'.
In the UAL/CAL ISL the arbitrators chose as blend of 65% Status & Category and 35% longevity. They pretty much tweaked the percentages until they found an overall 'fair' result. Regardless, it's obvious that S&C are HUGE factors in any ISL. Due to stovepiping the lists, an individual pilots position is irrelevant - the total number of positions in the airline is what is relevant. This series of Displacements is absolutely decimating those positions. FWIW you can google UAL CAL ISL award and read the actual arbitrators ruling.
ISL arbitrations are anything but predictable though. As much as long/tall fences make sense to me and you, arbitrators have been hesitant to use fences recently (IIRC they even stated so in the UAL/CAL ISL), instead tweaking other levers to get a desired result.
It's a waste of time and effort right now to dive into this rabbit hole, however, it's important to understand the underlying arguments that prevailed in the UAL/CAL ISL since they would likely serve as the framework for any future arbitration. The big flashing items I see are 1) Accurate seniority list at Merger Closing Date, 2) Stovepiped Status and Category of pilots at Merger Closing Date, and 3) Stovepiped Longevity of pilots at Merger Closing Date. Two very important concepts to understand are 'Stovepipe' lists & 'snapshot date'.
In the UAL/CAL ISL the arbitrators chose as blend of 65% Status & Category and 35% longevity. They pretty much tweaked the percentages until they found an overall 'fair' result. Regardless, it's obvious that S&C are HUGE factors in any ISL. Due to stovepiping the lists, an individual pilots position is irrelevant - the total number of positions in the airline is what is relevant. This series of Displacements is absolutely decimating those positions. FWIW you can google UAL CAL ISL award and read the actual arbitrators ruling.
06-20-2020, 08:27 AM
#923
777 - ret
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Position: Waco CG-4 center seat
Posts: 863
*too late to edit...
ISL arbitrations are anything but predictable though. As much as long/tall fences make sense to me and you, arbitrators have been hesitant to use fences recently (IIRC they even stated so in the UAL/CAL ISL), instead tweaking other levers to get a desired result.
It's a waste of time and effort right now to dive into this rabbit hole, however, it's important to understand the underlying arguments that prevailed in the UAL/CAL ISL since they would likely serve as the framework for any future arbitration. The big flashing items I see are 1) Accurate seniority list at Merger Closing Date, 2) Stovepiped Status and Category of pilots at Merger Closing Date, and 3) Stovepiped Longevity of pilots at Merger Closing Date. Two very important concepts to understand are 'Stovepipe' lists & 'snapshot date'.
In the UAL/CAL ISL the arbitrators chose as blend of 65% Status & Category and 35% longevity. They pretty much tweaked the percentages until they found an overall 'fair' result. Regardless, it's obvious that S&C are HUGE factors in any ISL. Due to stovepiping the lists, an individual pilots position is irrelevant - the total number of positions in the airline is what is relevant. This series of Displacements is absolutely decimating those positions. FWIW you can google UAL CAL ISL award and read the actual arbitrators ruling.
ISL arbitrations are anything but predictable though. As much as long/tall fences make sense to me and you, arbitrators have been hesitant to use fences recently (IIRC they even stated so in the UAL/CAL ISL), instead tweaking other levers to get a desired result.
It's a waste of time and effort right now to dive into this rabbit hole, however, it's important to understand the underlying arguments that prevailed in the UAL/CAL ISL since they would likely serve as the framework for any future arbitration. The big flashing items I see are 1) Accurate seniority list at Merger Closing Date, 2) Stovepiped Status and Category of pilots at Merger Closing Date, and 3) Stovepiped Longevity of pilots at Merger Closing Date. Two very important concepts to understand are 'Stovepipe' lists & 'snapshot date'.
In the UAL/CAL ISL the arbitrators chose as blend of 65% Status & Category and 35% longevity. They pretty much tweaked the percentages until they found an overall 'fair' result. Regardless, it's obvious that S&C are HUGE factors in any ISL. Due to stovepiping the lists, an individual pilots position is irrelevant - the total number of positions in the airline is what is relevant. This series of Displacements is absolutely decimating those positions. FWIW you can google UAL CAL ISL award and read the actual arbitrators ruling.
His response was "we don't want to screw anybody and we don't wast to be screwed". "We want to get inside the minds of the arbitrators and try to come up with a proposal that they would come up with".
Bill did express concern that Jay P. was getting the CAL guys hopes up in an unreasonable way that might later create dissent.
Now, here we are.
All of the CAL guys that I have flown with and trained with have been great ... Well, except Deitrick the Dick as he is known.
06-20-2020, 09:48 AM
#924
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2006
Position: B737 CAPT IAH
Posts: 1,130
Back when the two merger committees were doing their thing I had a conversation with Bill B.( represented the UAL senior group on the merger committee ). I asked why we were not countering CALs Moonshot proposal with a Moonshot proposal of our own.
His response was "we don't want to screw anybody and we don't wast to be screwed". "We want to get inside the minds of the arbitrators and try to come up with a proposal that they would come up with".
Bill did express concern that Jay P. was getting the CAL guys hopes up in an unreasonable way that might later create dissent.
Now, here we are.
All of the CAL guys that I have flown with and trained with have been great ... Well, except Deitrick the Dick as he is known.
His response was "we don't want to screw anybody and we don't wast to be screwed". "We want to get inside the minds of the arbitrators and try to come up with a proposal that they would come up with".
Bill did express concern that Jay P. was getting the CAL guys hopes up in an unreasonable way that might later create dissent.
Now, here we are.
All of the CAL guys that I have flown with and trained with have been great ... Well, except Deitrick the Dick as he is known.
Lee
06-20-2020, 10:22 AM
#926
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2011
Position: Reclining
Posts: 840
FFS guys, we have people that are more than likely getting furloughed this fall, and y’all still *****ing about the ISL. Anyone getting furloughed doesn’t have a dog in that fight, SO LET IT GO ALREADY!! NOBODY CARES. GEEZUS H...
06-20-2020, 11:17 AM
#928
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,639
Nope, nothing official yet. Well, at least at mainline. The company has publicly stated that the 50-seaters are going away.
But there's plenty of informed speculation based on what the company said they would do if required to downsize. The current displacement would appear to suggest the ability to downsize the 777, 756, and 320 fleets if demand does not recover. FWIW, despite the downturn the 787 fleet in actually growing by 16 frames by the end of 2021.
But there's plenty of informed speculation based on what the company said they would do if required to downsize. The current displacement would appear to suggest the ability to downsize the 777, 756, and 320 fleets if demand does not recover. FWIW, despite the downturn the 787 fleet in actually growing by 16 frames by the end of 2021.
06-20-2020, 11:27 AM
#929
777 - ret
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Position: Waco CG-4 center seat
Posts: 863
06-20-2020, 03:05 PM
#930
Squawking 2000
Joined APC: Jul 2015
Position: Skeptical
Posts: 737
Considering that those most likely to be sweating a furlough and clicking on this thread for insight are post-merger hires (myself included), maybe it would be best if you guys could take your rehashing of the ISL to another thread.
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