Furlough estimate
06-15-2020, 07:38 AM
#841
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 936
University of WA has been updating their model for the entire pandemic and the predictive accuracy has been all over the place. That being said they have modeled typical mobility and it goes back to sightly less than 10 percent of normal numbers for October 1.
Air travel seems to lag behind the percentage by about 25% but the graph shape is strikingly similar to the TSA travel numbers.
Air travel seems to lag behind the percentage by about 25% but the graph shape is strikingly similar to the TSA travel numbers.
06-15-2020, 07:49 AM
#842
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2010
Position: Left - Dodge Caravan
Posts: 357
I know you know this, but just to clarify to anyone who might not...
The WARN Act provides a 60 day notice which would be August 2 for an October 1 furlough date. The 90 day requirement comes from UPA Section 1-I-2. The 90 Day notification date would allow the company to furlough pilots hired before January 23, 2016 if needed.
90 Days would be July 3, but I will be very surprised if we don't see the notices issued the last few days of June after the displacement award is posted.
The furlough notices will also would trigger UPA Section 7-I which exempts those pilots notified of furlough from being displaced on any following round of displacement bidding. This would help the company when they try to balance the NB FO flying.
Unfortunately the number of notices will probably be on the higher side, knowing that they can easily cancel them or offset with the volunteer programs that will be also be offered (VF is required by the UPA as a minimum).
Let's hope that travel demand returns quickly and makes the furlough plan obsolete.
SP
06-15-2020, 08:38 AM
#843
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: SFO Guppy CA
Posts: 1,112
Lee,
I know you know this, but just to clarify to anyone who might not...
The WARN Act provides a 60 day notice which would be August 2 for an October 1 furlough date. The 90 day requirement comes from UPA Section 1-I-2. The 90 Day notification date would allow the company to furlough pilots hired before January 23, 2016 if needed.
90 Days would be July 3, but I will be very surprised if we don't see the notices issued the last few days of June after the displacement award is posted.
The furlough notices will also would trigger UPA Section 7-I which exempts those pilots notified of furlough from being displaced on any following round of displacement bidding. This would help the company when they try to balance the NB FO flying.
Unfortunately the number of notices will probably be on the higher side, knowing that they can easily cancel them or offset with the volunteer programs that will be also be offered (VF is required by the UPA as a minimum).
Let's hope that travel demand returns quickly and makes the furlough plan obsolete.
SP
I know you know this, but just to clarify to anyone who might not...
The WARN Act provides a 60 day notice which would be August 2 for an October 1 furlough date. The 90 day requirement comes from UPA Section 1-I-2. The 90 Day notification date would allow the company to furlough pilots hired before January 23, 2016 if needed.
90 Days would be July 3, but I will be very surprised if we don't see the notices issued the last few days of June after the displacement award is posted.
The furlough notices will also would trigger UPA Section 7-I which exempts those pilots notified of furlough from being displaced on any following round of displacement bidding. This would help the company when they try to balance the NB FO flying.
Unfortunately the number of notices will probably be on the higher side, knowing that they can easily cancel them or offset with the volunteer programs that will be also be offered (VF is required by the UPA as a minimum).
Let's hope that travel demand returns quickly and makes the furlough plan obsolete.
SP
06-15-2020, 09:00 AM
#844
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,382
06-15-2020, 09:08 AM
#845
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 30
Thanks...
Thank you. Your idea worked well using JP Morgan's transportation numbers. Not good news but something to factor in for the next couple years of planning.
06-15-2020, 10:51 AM
#846
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2006
Position: B737 CAPT IAH
Posts: 1,130
Thats my 2 cents. I’ll stand by for an MEC update this evening to get their take on recent events.
Lee
06-16-2020, 04:28 AM
#847
On Reserve
Joined APC: Sep 2018
Posts: 17
Out of curiosity, how early and how long do they have to present a VFP? Can they just open it July 2nd and close it July 3rd and say, "well, we tried and offered it"
06-16-2020, 06:57 AM
#848
Orbis Non Sufficit
Joined APC: Oct 2015
Posts: 736
Nothing written on that, but presumably it will be offered concurrently with the numbers being announced. That gives most of three months before the axe falls.
06-16-2020, 07:46 AM
#849
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 40,382
Voluntary furloughs are *probably* in their best interest. Volunteers would be more senior, at least a little higher on the scale, and might be on more senior equipment which would reduce cascading training events. Especially since the NB flying will be back before long-haul.
06-16-2020, 08:46 AM
#850
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2010
Position: Left - Dodge Caravan
Posts: 357
Last time the company kept the VF option open until 30 days prior to the furlough date.
I expect the VF's to be offered (or at least announced) at the same time as the notices go out, but section 7-G only states that they have to be offered "prior to such a furlough."
This is just a GUESS, but it is likely the notices will be out the last week of June or early July, with the VF window open for July and August.
SP
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