Furlough estimate
#781
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2015
Position: EWR 777 FO
Posts: 187
Well, I was previously open to a temporary MPG reduction to prevent furloughs as it seemed like a small price to pay to save several thousand jobs and ultimately families. After talking to countless friends and colleagues who have been through the companies promises and good faith deals in the past it has become quite clear I was incorrect. The company has promised and guaranteed things countless times and without fail the pilots always got duped. To believe it will be any different this time is by definition insane. Count me as a F NO to any give in our compensation. Even it it means the street for me.
#782
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2015
Position: EWR 777 FO
Posts: 187
#783
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Joined APC: Aug 2008
Position: 787 Captain
Posts: 1,512
Be bold.
#785
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Posts: 281
Well, I was previously open to a temporary MPG reduction to prevent furloughs as it seemed like a small price to pay to save several thousand jobs and ultimately families. After talking to countless friends and colleagues who have been through the companies promises and good faith deals in the past it has become quite clear I was incorrect. The company has promised and guaranteed things countless times and without fail the pilots always got duped. To believe it will be any different this time is by definition insane. Count me as a F NO to any give in our compensation. Even it it means the street for me.
#786
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Joined APC: Jan 2015
Position: EWR 777 FO
Posts: 187
#787
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Position: 756 Left Side
Posts: 1,629
They haven't announced any furloughs so its hard to answer your question.. We're all making assumptions based on the displacements so far, but they are mainly a paper tiger right now. The big picture assumption is that they are emphasizing doom and gloom in an attempt to extract concessions from us. We ALL want to keep as many pilots active as we can, but it appears that Kirby wants us to fund part of the expense. Although the stated plan is a 30% reduction its extremely unlikely they'd cut that deep even without our 'help'. The next marker will be furlough notifications (probably) on 1 July. I expect a very large number (possibly even 3000+) in a further attempt to scare us into concessions. It's important to note that displacements can be canceled or undone easily, and a furlough notification doesn't commit the company to actually furlough a pilot.
Be bold.
Be bold.
Posted this on the other thread...(Displacement 20-08D) but it's actually better here.
My apologies
As others said (with regards to furloughs).. unknown.
However-
There are some 'known'.
We know the last Legacy Hire. His name is known to most of the Legacy Continental Pilots and also many Legacy United pilots.
There are roughly 3900 pilots between him and our last guy on the list (VMR!)
We also know the first person hired after 23 Jan 2016...
There are roughly 2300 pilots between him and our last guy on the list (VMR!)
We also know that based on crew ratio's on the 20-06V bid..
We are forecasted to be overstaffed on the narrowbody FO side by about 3000.
Some were expecting the Intent to Furlough notices these past 2 weeks. Other's (myself included) think sometime in July.
Will they ruin the 4th of July weekend? Could be 1-2 July or they could wait till 6-7 July.
Seems NJ amended their WARN Act to remove the 90 days back down to 60 days-
https://www.lawandtheworkplace.com/2...ng-amendments/
Based on this, my guess is that they do send out the ItF notices sometime in July but they could get away with doing it after the first week of July. They could get away with this by starting furloughs on 1 Oct for those requiring 60 days notice and then 1 Nov for those requiring 90 days.
Unfortunately I still believe they are targeting Pilots and labor for concessions. And will furlough 1000-1300 initially.
The unknowns are really how quickly Americans bounce back and say "we've had enough"...
Also if the Government comes out with a Cares 2 Act. But if the economy is recovering.. and the other big 3 (Delta, American and SouthWest) are also projecting recoveries (ie, no massive Layoffs/furloughs..) then we probably would not see a C2 directed at our industry.
To EVERY Pilot (not just ours..)
Stay Strong and Safe.. and remain PROFESSIONAL.
Remember, it's not the passengers fault.
Always
Motch
PS) I used the United Seniority dot com site for my numbers
#788
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Joined APC: Jan 2014
Posts: 425
#789
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Joined APC: Apr 2010
Posts: 696
Agree, but really I think half the issue is they’re just ballparking - they suspect for example 5-10% ain’t gonna cut it and 40% would be unworkable and overkill and there are simply zero ways or benefit to fine tuning (to use a euphemism) the number and announcing daily long term planning tweaks to employees until we’re much closer. Sticking to one figure publicly for now, 30%, as ugly as it is, gives them some room to flex up or down when OCT 1st gets closer. Also am not trying to be callous as I’m guessing I might be included in the “cull”.
if AA and SWA and DL are going relatively big in July that maybe sparks some demand and opens up room for justifying a much bigger AUG schedule for us which could start really improving the overall outlook for furloughs. In the mean time I’m glad our MEC is not in the mood for any concessions.
if AA and SWA and DL are going relatively big in July that maybe sparks some demand and opens up room for justifying a much bigger AUG schedule for us which could start really improving the overall outlook for furloughs. In the mean time I’m glad our MEC is not in the mood for any concessions.
#790
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2008
Position: 787 Captain
Posts: 1,512
Agree, but really I think half the issue is they’re just ballparking - they suspect for example 5-10% ain’t gonna cut it and 40% would be unworkable and overkill and there are simply zero ways or benefit to fine tuning (to use a euphemism) the number and announcing daily long term planning tweaks to employees until we’re much closer. Sticking to one figure publicly for now, 30%, as ugly as it is, gives them some room to flex up or down when OCT 1st gets closer. Also am not trying to be callous as I’m guessing I might be included in the “cull”.
if AA and SWA and DL are going relatively big in July that maybe sparks some demand and opens up room for justifying a much bigger AUG schedule for us which could start really improving the overall outlook for furloughs. In the mean time I’m glad our MEC is not in the mood for any concessions.
if AA and SWA and DL are going relatively big in July that maybe sparks some demand and opens up room for justifying a much bigger AUG schedule for us which could start really improving the overall outlook for furloughs. In the mean time I’m glad our MEC is not in the mood for any concessions.
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