Precontact

All of the major airline CEOs have stated their airlines will be smaller on the other side so what will be the new normal?

Sparta

Furloughing is a dynamic process so I don't think anyone has an exact number but my guess is 1500-2000 on 1 October and then 200 a month until... . United won't keep extra people on the payroll while it's fighting for survival. I suspect we will see a huge furlough of other employees in the fall (greater than 30%). The analysts are saying it will take 3-4 years for domestic travel to return and a year or two longer for international. There are a lot of variables that could change the numbers but this is the way I see it today...

dumpcheck

My number one recommendation is for anyone on the bubble (bottom 10% at least) to act as if you’ve already received your notice and pursue options aggressively now. Those who take a casual approach over the next 5 months are likely to find that the limited options for pilot-related work (including military recall) have been scarfed up, and come October 01 there will be a huge glut of pilots on the street which will make it that much more competitive. Customs and other Gov’t flying jobs will evaporate.

Secondly, if you don’t already have a backup / side gig, target your employment search toward a field that can pay the bills now and then be scaled back to part-time when you get recalled. Every prior mil pilot with less than 20 years should be in the reserves.

This downturn has been overdue...it’s a normal part of our industry. It will be tough for us all, but the industry will improve. Our greatest fear is typically the unknown (especially pilots used to planning for variables), but we are resilient. Focus on what you can impact positively; especially your family and health (including mental). Be grateful for what you have as one’s situation could always be worse.

El Guapo

Here's what 3500 pilots looks like:

The earliest that 3500th pilot hits the street is next Fall, company plans on having him/her gone for 18 months, brings them back and trains them, that 3500th person is the junior pilot on property Summer of 2023. You have positioned your airline to be AT MOST 2/3 of its original size. You now have an 8300 pilot group 3 summers from now. Most are saying 2-3 year recovery, so you are telling me management is going to set themselves up to be 2/3 of its current size in over 3 years from now? It's not going to happen, you can doom and gloom all you want.

We have been making billions and billions the past several years, enough to **** away billions and billions and still have billions left over, at 82% load factors. We don't need to get back to 82% to break even. They aren't going to cut off their leg to stop their toe from bleeding.

Sparta

2/3 of pilots does not necessarily mean the airline shrinks to 2/3 of its current size. The problem for us is that international flying will probably be very slow to come back and we have a lot of pilots on that equipment. So by the summer of 2023 we could reclaim 80% of our domestic footprint but still be at 50% on the international side. It’s not doom and gloom...it’s reality.

EWRflyr

The fact is no one knows at this moment in time how many furloughs will happen. I say "no one" because I don't think the company can say with confidence what the flying will look like. Things are changing rapidly on a monthly, even weekly or daily, basis as evidenced by all the schedule changes lately.

That being Kirby stated on the Flight Operations Town Hall that management is expecting revenue to be down 30% in the 4th Quarter. Of course, they hope it is better than that but hope isn't a strategy and it's foolish not to plan now for this eventuality. So a 30% revenue decline would need to be offset by 30% cost cuts across the airline. We all know what that means to the every day employee: reduced head count, pay, benefits, or combination thereof. But one thing he pointed out was that when it comes to pilots, it isn't necessarily linear in how that is achieved because of the unique aspect of our jobs. Unlike other work groups, we have a mandatory retirement age, we only fly one airplane type at a time, etc. Any furlough adds it's own costs with displacements, training then recalls and more training. It costs more to furlough more, and as Kirby stated if we furloughed an equivalent amount it would take years (I believe he said 3-5 years) to get everyone back if we needed to ramp up quickly.

I'm not insinuating the picture is rosy by any means as this has me very worried even at 60% seniority depending on which projections one believes. I'm preparing for the worst but optimistic given Kirby's own words at the time he said them that we don't see 30% of our 13,250 pilots shown the door.

El Guapo

There’s simply no metric that suggests international #’s at 50% in over 3 years.

Longduckdong

I’d figure that anyone who might benefit from that advice won’t listen anyway. Plus, it’s a bit too late at this point.

OVC010CB

For what it’s worth (not much) my Speedbird friends estimate the company will look for 17% of their pilots to be made redundant with today’s announcement. That’s about 800 out of 4,500 pilots.

Different economy and less government intervention than the US3.

sleeves

What is to stop the company from furloughing 5000 or even 8000 on October 1. If things stay the same, we are flying so little the schedule would be met without a problem. Not saying it is going to happen, just asking why people think it can’t.