Furlough estimate
04-28-2020, 09:52 AM
#41
Get me outta here...
Joined APC: Oct 2008
Position: Boeing right seat
Posts: 1,541
Nothing against you personally, but there are a ton of people out there screaming "you better get your house in order NOW!" Yes, we got. And yes, I'll assume any professional pilot here is an adult and you admonitions are not going to make a bit of different.
Then there are the pilots that list the 6 financial things you SHOULD have done to prepare for this. Great... kind of like standing in the street with your neighbor, watching a raging fire go through your house while waiting for the fire department to arrive... and having him say "You know, you should have an extinguisher in every room of your house, and you should check your smoke detectors each month".
It's a condescending tone, and no one cares for it.
Then there are the pilots that list the 6 financial things you SHOULD have done to prepare for this. Great... kind of like standing in the street with your neighbor, watching a raging fire go through your house while waiting for the fire department to arrive... and having him say "You know, you should have an extinguisher in every room of your house, and you should check your smoke detectors each month".
It's a condescending tone, and no one cares for it.
04-28-2020, 09:53 AM
#42
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: 787
Posts: 3,202
Nothing against you personally, but there are a ton of people out there screaming "you better get your house in order NOW!" Yes, we got.
Then there are the ones that list the 6 things you SHOULD have done to prepare for this. Great... kind of like standing in the street with your neighbor, watching a raging fire go through your house while wait for the fire department to arrive... and having him say "You know, you should have an extinguisher in every room of your house, and you should check your smoke detectors each month".
It's a condescending tone, and no one cares for it.
Then there are the ones that list the 6 things you SHOULD have done to prepare for this. Great... kind of like standing in the street with your neighbor, watching a raging fire go through your house while wait for the fire department to arrive... and having him say "You know, you should have an extinguisher in every room of your house, and you should check your smoke detectors each month".
It's a condescending tone, and no one cares for it.
04-28-2020, 10:01 AM
#43
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2016
Position: On stiltz
Posts: 30
Nothing against you personally, but there are a ton of people out there screaming "you better get your house in order NOW!" Yes, we got. And yes, I'll assume any professional pilot here is an adult and you admonitions are not going to make a bit of different.
Then there are the pilots that list the 6 financial things you SHOULD have done to prepare for this. Great... kind of like standing in the street with your neighbor, watching a raging fire go through your house while waiting for the fire department to arrive... and having him say "You know, you should have an extinguisher in every room of your house, and you should check your smoke detectors each month".
It's a condescending tone, and no one cares for it.
Then there are the pilots that list the 6 financial things you SHOULD have done to prepare for this. Great... kind of like standing in the street with your neighbor, watching a raging fire go through your house while waiting for the fire department to arrive... and having him say "You know, you should have an extinguisher in every room of your house, and you should check your smoke detectors each month".
It's a condescending tone, and no one cares for it.
We know whats coming. If it was after the fact I'd agree with you but the house is just smoking,
some of these 6 financial things can still be accomplished.
So how do you mentor the guys for whom this is first time? Tell em it'll all be ok? To me that's more condescending then what I'm saying. They are professional Pilots and should be treated as such, but then don't throw them a line I give to my 5 yr old. Give a no **** realistic number with a gradual increase of flying not based on 9/11 or any other time because it doesn't compare.
04-28-2020, 10:06 AM
#44
Get me outta here...
Joined APC: Oct 2008
Position: Boeing right seat
Posts: 1,541
04-28-2020, 10:09 AM
#45
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Position: A320 FO
Posts: 255
So to get back to some objectivity. My curiosity was asking the basics. How many pax per year did we fly vs the anticipared future vs how many pilots we need. I know it is way more complicated than that, but I think a generalization could help. If we're at 20% of passengers vs 60% pre-cold virus apocalypse come September, what is the difference in the total group required. Someone way smarter than me on this forum knows these numbers or where to find them.
04-28-2020, 10:11 AM
#46
Line Holder
Joined APC: Mar 2020
Posts: 84
The estimates from executives and analysts I've read predict it will take 2-3 years to get back to previous travel levels. Assuming UAL matches the industrial trends, the company will be back to needing the current level of pilots in 2-3 years if the predictions hold true. The future is unpredictable, but considering mandatory retirements hopefully all UAL pilots will be back on the property (assuming a furlough) within a reasonable amount of time.
04-28-2020, 10:15 AM
#47
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2006
Posts: 319
04-28-2020, 10:46 AM
#48
Orbis Non Sufficit
Joined APC: Oct 2015
Posts: 736
So how do you mentor the guys for whom this is first time? Tell em it'll all be ok?
04-28-2020, 10:46 AM
#49
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2014
Position: Airbus 320 Captain
Posts: 481
I'll take the under on that number. Waaaaaay to high. It would take a very long time to furlough that many, and get through all the bumps and re-training. The training center can't handle that many displacements in 2 years. Add on top the retirement numbers, it would take 3-4 years to sort that mess of such a high furlough amount.
I'm cautiously optimistic that the travel / booking numbers will rebound faster that the experts predict.
Domino, are you new to this industry?
I'm cautiously optimistic that the travel / booking numbers will rebound faster that the experts predict.
Domino, are you new to this industry?
Last edited by rp2pilot; 04-28-2020 at 10:47 AM. Reason: Typo
04-28-2020, 10:54 AM
#50
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2011
Position: A Nobody
Posts: 1,559
I did not read all the other guesses, so if I'm repeating anyone sorry.
If history is close if you are in the bottom 45% spend the next couple of months preparing financially.
However, it is very likely 30% of all the big 4 will be furloughed. Hope not.
At UAL that would mean somewhere near 3,500 pilots. It will not happen overnight (of course it actually could with all the surprises this crisis has given us) but over probably 6 - 8 months and during that time be evaluated a few times.
If history is close if you are in the bottom 45% spend the next couple of months preparing financially.
However, it is very likely 30% of all the big 4 will be furloughed. Hope not.
At UAL that would mean somewhere near 3,500 pilots. It will not happen overnight (of course it actually could with all the surprises this crisis has given us) but over probably 6 - 8 months and during that time be evaluated a few times.
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