Furlough estimate
#431
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2019
Posts: 903
Nobody wants to see any furloughs, but unfortunately taking the 6 seats out of 76 seaters won’t in the least deter them from furloughing well beyond 2016 if they need to . They only have to put around 25 to 35 people on a 70/76 seater to be profitable from a per seat mile cost . But either way , Hopefully no or few furloughs will actually happen .
#432
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Position: B-737 Captain
Posts: 657
Yes and no. Yes, this crisis is WAAAAY more severe than 9/11, but the government has really stepped up with Billions of assistance. Not so in 2001. Today, with access to billions of dollars, do you really think United is gonna kick a half winger to the curb AND chisel him out of 1/2 month's pay? That's a battle they'll happily concede. Although, they just ended severance for M&A workers today. CORE 4. smh.
#433
Yes and no. Yes, this crisis is WAAAAY more severe than 9/11, but the government has really stepped up with Billions of assistance. Not so in 2001. Today, with access to billions of dollars, do you really think United is gonna kick a half winger to the curb AND chisel him out of 1/2 month's pay? That's a battle they'll happily concede. Although, they just ended severance for M&A workers today. CORE 4. smh.
#434
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2011
Position: 756 Left Side
Posts: 1,629
They are already seeing that many people had it back in Jan, Feb and especially in Mar. So there is a greater population that is now CoVid19 Antibodies carrying. (the 1st appointment for my plasma donation is May 24! Seems many people have had it and are now donating!... both great news but also, hmmmmm)
So as time moves on, more people will have it and recover. Most at home but those who do end up in the hospital will have a much better chance since they now know some things that work a little, and what doesn't seem to work.
The longer time goes on, the more of the 'herd immunity' that takes place.
Agreed. It’s about cutting costs quickly to buy the company time. International will not recover as quickly as domestic, and it makes no sense to pay WB pilots and NB captains to sit idle. The reason for this bump is to lower the monthly guaranteed pay of as many pilots as possible while no work exists. One could even argue it is management’s version of trying to mitigate furloughs by saving cash now to keep more pilots on the payroll (in a NB FO pool) in hopes that demand will recover. Yes, management will manipulate the process; this is why we must defend our contract vigorously.
Tonight it was brought up about when your new pay begins. Was stated.. June OR when you begin IOE... the latter!
So now I'm thinking how many people can they train between June and Oct to warrant the pay savings?
And mind you, for some pilots.. there is no savings! They go from one widebody over to the next.
Then you have those guys who are getting bumped from a Left seat to a right seat.. but again, I wonder.. do any of them have vacation in the summer? Will they get trained before the recovery starts to show any cost savings?
I would really like to hear an honest assessment of just how many can be trained in a month. And I mean, from day one till IOE starts? For all fleets, for all seats. I realize it probably varies a bit.. but ballpark. I would think it would take a few months.
Also, it was mentioned that if someone goes to training but a junior pilot still hasn't, you are still pay protected. SO, again.. where are the savings?
Side note- we have some very junior pilots in the right seat of the Widebodies AND have 2-3 yr pilots in the left seat of the narrowbodies. I would bet that they go to training first. But.. are they also furlough cannon fodder? But wouldn't the training from Guppy Capt back to guppy FO be a short course? So there COULD be some savings there...but again are they also furlough fodder? And if so, why would the company train them? hmmmm
Things don't add up.
It doesn’t cost the company anything to furlough everyone still on probation on 10/1... in addition it only costs 1/2 month furlough pay for those with less than 2 years on property... and only 1 month furlough pay up to 3 years. Best case I’m thinking 1,000-1,500 on 10/1... worst case 30-35%.
they could save a lot of money not carrying extra NB FOs... and if demand picks up sooner it’s easy to recall and have them do a quick recall back in the same NB they left. If demand worse they can furlough more.
they could save a lot of money not carrying extra NB FOs... and if demand picks up sooner it’s easy to recall and have them do a quick recall back in the same NB they left. If demand worse they can furlough more.
I am fearful they will do this to prove a point.. and also as a token to the other work groups who may be taking furloughs or pay hits.
Then again, there is always a caveat. Either the economy picks up a little faster or the Government comes out with C2, which is very possible right before an election. Hell, maybe both?!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Guys & Gals, this sucks for EVERYONE. Even pilots not getting displaced are looking at being on reserve? Everyone is going to be taking a pay hit.. EVERYONE. As someone who was on the furlough list back at CAL in 08/09 I feel the pain of uncertainty for our Junior pilots. And while it might not mean a lot.. I know I and many others will think of ways to help you out.
ALSO- Keep in mind... nothing is set in stone yet! We still have a few months I believe (based on what was said this evening) and I truly believe that things are trending upwards.
Lastly.. for anyone who listened to the Town Hall- is it me or did anyone else feel they were watching the movie Catch 22 at some points?!
Please-
Stay Healthy, Stay Safe and Stay Strong. Both you and your families.
For those lucky enough to be flying-
I'll add..
Fly Safe, Fly Professionally and Fly the Contract!
Always
Motch
PS) Banned from the UAL Pilots FaceBook Group today (for a week!).. LOL! Guess two pilots sparring and then joking and talking about drinking bier at some point upset some snowflake~
I'm on a roll this year.
Banned from one Forum, penalty box in others, CoVid19 and now I'm officially non qual'd and on the displacement list!
HA
Oh, and my wedding for May 16 is postponed.. till May 16.. 2021! LOL
And it's only May 5th
~
#436
Banned
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 26
Nobody wants to see any furloughs, but unfortunately taking the 6 seats out of 76 seaters won’t in the least deter them from furloughing well beyond 2016 if they need to . They only have to put around 25 to 35 people on a 70/76 seater to be profitable from a per seat mile cost . But either way , Hopefully no or few furloughs will actually happen .
#437
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2019
Position: 757/767
Posts: 185
Act of God would be tsunami hit coast of California and destroyed 1/3 of our widebody fleet, or tornado ripped through OHare and destroyed 1/2 of our aircraft parked there.
This is not an act of God situation. Government policy has reduced travel. Government stepped in with a bailout. United can’t take bailout money and then claim Act of God.
This is not an act of God situation. Government policy has reduced travel. Government stepped in with a bailout. United can’t take bailout money and then claim Act of God.
#438
Hey RJTroll....depart and return from whence'you came. All your 21 posts are BS. What a d!k
#439
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Posts: 1,610
Well my estimate of number of furloughs just increased now that management isn’t cutting hours of 15,000 workers from 40hrs a week to 30hrs a week. Doug Parker is a smart guy, and that was just another knife in the gut for an already bleeding UAL.
United can not afford paying full payroll of 93,000 people for the next 6 months while making virtually $0 in revenue and having all the other fixed costs that cannot be shed. This is going to be ugly.
United can not afford paying full payroll of 93,000 people for the next 6 months while making virtually $0 in revenue and having all the other fixed costs that cannot be shed. This is going to be ugly.
#440
Well my estimate of number of furloughs just increased now that management isn’t cutting hours of 15,000 workers from 40hrs a week to 30hrs a week. Doug Parker is a smart guy, and that was just another knife in the gut for an already bleeding UAL.
United can not afford paying full payroll of 93,000 people for the next 6 months while making virtually $0 in revenue and having all the other fixed costs that cannot be shed. This is going to be ugly.
United can not afford paying full payroll of 93,000 people for the next 6 months while making virtually $0 in revenue and having all the other fixed costs that cannot be shed. This is going to be ugly.
There's a reason why the CARES act was enacted, and it's exactly to cover the employee expenses and take them off the table. Those part-time reductions that UAL was trying to impose would only buy UAL a couple days of cash burn. At best.
As for Doug Parker, AA said they were burning $70M/day in cash and working to get it down to $50M. For a company with more than debt UAL and a much higher cash burn, it's not hard to see who the bear will catch first unless things change in a significant way. Of course he'd like to slow everybody else down with him.
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