Furlough estimate
05-05-2020, 01:01 PM
#411
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Oct 2010
Posts: 2,639
Because this displacement is artificial. It is designed to keep people from bumping for multiple rounds. Our contract doesn’t allow a “flush bid” but this gives them something very close to that. They aren’t saying this is going to be the size of the airline, but they just didn’t want people displacing for months on end to get to where they could finally train some guppy and Airbus FOs.
They’d rather have more people getting paid Airbus FO and Guppy FO than CA on any plane as well as WB FO. This is not because they are going to furlough 3,000 pilots. This is because they are trying to reduce payroll and maximize short-term training. This also gives them flexibility to “bounce back” since they just have to cancel some displacements or have an outright vacancy bid in the fall, since we won’t be grandfathered anymore.
All those junior WB FO and NB CA actually cause a problem for the company during a displacement, and they just figured out how to get around it within the contract.
They’d rather have more people getting paid Airbus FO and Guppy FO than CA on any plane as well as WB FO. This is not because they are going to furlough 3,000 pilots. This is because they are trying to reduce payroll and maximize short-term training. This also gives them flexibility to “bounce back” since they just have to cancel some displacements or have an outright vacancy bid in the fall, since we won’t be grandfathered anymore.
All those junior WB FO and NB CA actually cause a problem for the company during a displacement, and they just figured out how to get around it within the contract.
This
Normally doing something like this would not be in the company's best interest, but with nobody flying and the desire for maximum flexibility this is actually a rational plan--at least from the company's perspective. I'm confident that neither the company or union thought of this type of scenario when negotiating the UPA.
05-05-2020, 01:37 PM
#412
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2015
Position: 777FO
Posts: 784
Sorry, not following. How is it "obvious from the min/max?" The current Active pilots is exactly 4,457 more than the Min/Max number. So, how can you tell that isn't their furlough target number? Thanks. I'm a little over 4,000 from the bottom so I could go either way in this.
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If you don't feel like reading the whole thing here is the important conclusion:
"One thing this exercise makes clear is that the 4476 line pilot displacements does NOT equal anywhere near 4476 furloughs. Sadly, with the company starting the displacement training ball rolling ASAP it will make it easier to have a very large first round of furloughs this fall."
05-05-2020, 01:45 PM
#413
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: 767/757 CA
Posts: 2,737
It doesn’t cost the company anything to furlough everyone still on probation on 10/1... in addition it only costs 1/2 month furlough pay for those with less than 2 years on property... and only 1 month furlough pay up to 3 years. Best case I’m thinking 1,000-1,500 on 10/1... worst case 30-35%.
they could save a lot of money not carrying extra NB FOs... and if demand picks up sooner it’s easy to recall and have them do a quick recall back in the same NB they left. If demand worse they can furlough more.
they could save a lot of money not carrying extra NB FOs... and if demand picks up sooner it’s easy to recall and have them do a quick recall back in the same NB they left. If demand worse they can furlough more.
05-05-2020, 01:54 PM
#415
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Position: B-737 Captain
Posts: 657
I'm sure somebody already covered this, but how deep is January 23, 2016? Meaning how many pilots are on the list hired after this date? DOH is not on the seniority list, which is asinine. The company has to remove 6 seats out of all the 76 seaters if 1 dude hired before 1/23/16 is furloughed, also nobody hired before 1/23/16 can be furloughed without 90 days notice. Another couple of nuggets from the Extension.
05-05-2020, 02:00 PM
#416
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2015
Posts: 166
The Min/Max means nothing here. What matters is the number of NB FOs at the end of all the displacement(s), as the junior most FOs are most at risk of being F bombed. I took a whack at it the other day: Displacement Bid 20-07D After a glance at the first snapshot yesterday, I am comfortable that my "high side" estimate of 2678 guys forced into NB FO seats is indeed high. Maybe 10-20% high. For example, tons of the displaced LAX 787 FOs are bidding into SFO 787 rather than staying at LAX as NB FOs.
If you don't feel like reading the whole thing here is the important conclusion:
"One thing this exercise makes clear is that the 4476 line pilot displacements does NOT equal anywhere near 4476 furloughs. Sadly, with the company starting the displacement training ball rolling ASAP it will make it easier to have a very large first round of furloughs this fall."
If you don't feel like reading the whole thing here is the important conclusion:
"One thing this exercise makes clear is that the 4476 line pilot displacements does NOT equal anywhere near 4476 furloughs. Sadly, with the company starting the displacement training ball rolling ASAP it will make it easier to have a very large first round of furloughs this fall."
Someone posted on the DAL section of this board about them adding flights in July to Europe out of JFK and loads are looking good.
05-05-2020, 02:26 PM
#417
777 - ret
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Position: Waco CG-4 center seat
Posts: 863
05-05-2020, 02:56 PM
#418
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2009
Position: Same Day, 1/2 Pay
Posts: 48
It doesn’t cost the company anything to furlough everyone still on probation on 10/1... in addition it only costs 1/2 month furlough pay for those with less than 2 years on property... and only 1 month furlough pay up to 3 years. Best case I’m thinking 1,000-1,500 on 10/1... worst case 30-35%.
they could save a lot of money not carrying extra NB FOs... and if demand picks up sooner it’s easy to recall and have them do a quick recall back in the same NB they left. If demand worse they can furlough more.
they could save a lot of money not carrying extra NB FOs... and if demand picks up sooner it’s easy to recall and have them do a quick recall back in the same NB they left. If demand worse they can furlough more.
UAL is NOT paying furlough pay.
If pilots are in the bottom 4500 (especially bottom 2000) they need to understand that.
UPA Section 7-G-1-b Notwithstanding Sections 7-G-1 and 7-G-1-a, no furlough pay shall be due if the furlough is caused by an Act of God, labor dispute or other circumstances over which the Company has no control.
The key word is Notwithstanding. That word essentially null and voids 7G1 and 7G1a as well as or other circumstances. You could drive a Mack Truck through that whole.
The Company will argue this is beyond their control and will not pay. As a previous Furloughed UAL Pilot, I tell anyone that asks to expect the worst from the Company and don't expect on a ton of help from ALPA. COBRA is worthless. Start looking for a job NOW if you are in the bottom 1000-2000. Go back in Military/Reserve if you can. USA Jobs.gov. (Statistically more likely to die at your desk in a Gov Job than to be fired NO MATTER WHAT YOU DO!) Furlough- It sucks.
Sorry if people don't like it but that was my truth.
Upside is that they can flush everyone to NB FO but you are still paid on your current seat until section 8-F-5 Pay Rate Protection kicks in.
Little solace but hell..you got to stop and smell the roses even if they are covered in dog $hit.
05-05-2020, 02:59 PM
#419
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Position: B-737 Captain
Posts: 657
UAL is NOT paying furlough pay.
If pilots are in the bottom 4500 (especially bottom 2000) they need to understand that.7-G-1-b Notwithstanding Sections 7-G-1 and 7-G-1-a, no furlough pay shall be due if the furlough is caused by an Act of God, labor dispute or other circumstances over which the Company has no control.
The Company will argue this is beyond their control and will not pay. As a previous Furloughed UAL Pilot, I tell anyone that asks to expect the worst from the Company and don't expect on a ton of help from ALPA. COBRA is worthless. Start looking for a job NOW if you are in the bottom 1000-2000. Go back in Military/Reserve if you can. USA Jobs.gov. (Statistically more likely to die at your desk in a Gov Job than to be fired NO MATTER WHAT YOU DO!) Furlough- It sucks.
Sorry if people don't like it but that was my truth.
Upside is that they can flush everyone to NB FO but you are still paid on your current seat until section 8-F-5 Pay Rate Protection kicks in.
Little solace but hell..you got to stop and smell the roses even if they are covered in dog $hit.
If pilots are in the bottom 4500 (especially bottom 2000) they need to understand that.7-G-1-b Notwithstanding Sections 7-G-1 and 7-G-1-a, no furlough pay shall be due if the furlough is caused by an Act of God, labor dispute or other circumstances over which the Company has no control.
The Company will argue this is beyond their control and will not pay. As a previous Furloughed UAL Pilot, I tell anyone that asks to expect the worst from the Company and don't expect on a ton of help from ALPA. COBRA is worthless. Start looking for a job NOW if you are in the bottom 1000-2000. Go back in Military/Reserve if you can. USA Jobs.gov. (Statistically more likely to die at your desk in a Gov Job than to be fired NO MATTER WHAT YOU DO!) Furlough- It sucks.
Sorry if people don't like it but that was my truth.
Upside is that they can flush everyone to NB FO but you are still paid on your current seat until section 8-F-5 Pay Rate Protection kicks in.
Little solace but hell..you got to stop and smell the roses even if they are covered in dog $hit.
BS. They will pay furlough pay. They did after 9/11 and the financial crisis. Just watch and see.
05-05-2020, 03:04 PM
#420
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2009
Position: Same Day, 1/2 Pay
Posts: 48
God bless your optimism.
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