Furlough estimate
04-28-2020, 08:26 AM
#31
Banned
Joined APC: Jun 2013
Posts: 234
Problem is with fear mongers like you is you equate a 30% reduction in manning with a 30% reduction in pilots. That's not how it works. If you are trying to reduce manning by 30%:
13000 pilots at 82 hours is 1.066M hours
10500 pilots at 70hrs MPG is 735,000
You got your 30% reduction with a 15% reduction in pilots while not needing to amend the UPA, and have the flexibility to staff for future summers 3-5 years down the line. Fear mongers like you will convince others in the group your numbers are a possibility and we need to take concessions to mitigate the amount of guys on the street, while data driven people know in reality they can't afford to cut as deep as you suggest, so no concessions are needed. They will not dig themselves in as deep of a hole as you think. Next year will suck, and we will be overstaffed, and everyone knows it, but they aren't going to cut 1/3 of the pilots to fix it.
13000 pilots at 82 hours is 1.066M hours
10500 pilots at 70hrs MPG is 735,000
You got your 30% reduction with a 15% reduction in pilots while not needing to amend the UPA, and have the flexibility to staff for future summers 3-5 years down the line. Fear mongers like you will convince others in the group your numbers are a possibility and we need to take concessions to mitigate the amount of guys on the street, while data driven people know in reality they can't afford to cut as deep as you suggest, so no concessions are needed. They will not dig themselves in as deep of a hole as you think. Next year will suck, and we will be overstaffed, and everyone knows it, but they aren't going to cut 1/3 of the pilots to fix it.
And just to be clear since you think putting words in people's mouths is a good idea, NEVER VOTE YES FOR PAY CUTS! EVER!!
04-28-2020, 08:26 AM
#34
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2013
Posts: 265
I'll take the under on that number. Waaaaaay to high. It would take a very long time to furlough that many, and get through all the bumps and re-training. The training center can't handle that many displacements in 2 years. Add on top the retirement numbers, it would take 3-4 years to sort that mess of such a high furlough amount.
I'm cautiously optimistic that the travel / booking numbers will rebound faster that the experts predict.
Domino, are you new to this industry?
04-28-2020, 08:29 AM
#35
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: SFO Guppy CA
Posts: 1,112
History proves that ANY pay concessions only helps the Company do what they were already going to do. It’ll just fund the delayed bonuses for the current Leadership. No one should get a bonus. If one of us has to bleed, we all should share in the bleeding.
04-28-2020, 08:40 AM
#36
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2006
Posts: 319
What are you even talking about? You're spinning things and putting words in my mouth so that you can be right. I'm a full pay to last day guy and have NEVER once in my life encouraged and never would encourage anyone to take less money nor would I ever vote for a pay cut. So, now that we have established you're wrong, your whole PollyAnna view point is wrong too. Not sure what color the sky is in your world, but this stupid virus scare has us and all other airlines operating at less than 10%. With future bookings not looking good either. So, what are we left with. Your view: United will just keep a ton of staff they don't need because in 3 years bookings looked good pre-virus. OR, we can use logic and reality to know that the top brass will chop what ever they need to because furlough section of the UPA affords them that luxury. Keep hoping, see where it gets you.
And just to be clear since you think putting words in people's mouths is a good idea, NEVER VOTE YES FOR PAY CUTS! EVER!!
And just to be clear since you think putting words in people's mouths is a good idea, NEVER VOTE YES FOR PAY CUTS! EVER!!
04-28-2020, 09:29 AM
#39
Get me outta here...
Joined APC: Oct 2008
Position: Boeing right seat
Posts: 1,541
04-28-2020, 09:37 AM
#40
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2016
Position: On stiltz
Posts: 30
And if you don't need my advice, cudos to you, since you obviously have too. Don't assume no one else needs to hear it
though.
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