Furlough estimate
05-02-2020, 05:23 PM
#271
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Position: B-737 Captain
Posts: 657
6801 is the starting point for the bottom NB Captains and WB FOs. They are displacing over a thousand Captains who are very senior on the 756, 777 and 787 and they will be going into those seats. On the second or third round of displacements, you will see that number get closer to 4,000 most likely as they have to have subsequent bumps, because they are not going to have 500 Airbus Captains in Denver, for example.
6801 for NB Captains... yes. Not WB FOs. 7876 is junior man for WB FOs.
05-02-2020, 06:18 PM
#272
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2016
Position: CA
Posts: 37
I don’t think it’s a bargaining chip at all. If things stay shutdown the way they are then the company is toast. If things rebound a bit then 6000 to 7000 pilots are gone. If things open up and people start to get tired of the hysteria and BS associated with the FLU / COVID 19 then 2000 to 3000 pilots will hit the streets. This has been a complete overreaction on the part of government. Hysteria has driven politicians to make stupid decisions that have completely wrecked the economy. The virus is pretty much looked at as a non-threat at all to non aged people.... but now Democratic politicians have figured out they can use lock downs and quarantines to their advantage to wreck the economy. This achieves a couple of big goals for them...it hurts Trump because the strong economy has been a huge feather in his cap AND it has made it possible for large Democratically controlled urban areas to cry poor to the Federal government and seek financial assistance. Bankrupt basket cases like Detroit and Chicago can now leverage the Federal government for bailouts .... take the money and waste it again. It’s pretty late in the game to fix things for us but the sooner stupid lock downs are eliminated the better. Pretty grim outlook for airline workers.
05-02-2020, 06:37 PM
#273
Banned
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 73
I don’t think it’s a bargaining chip at all. If things stay shutdown the way they are then the company is toast. If things rebound a bit then 6000 to 7000 pilots are gone. If things open up and people start to get tired of the hysteria and BS associated with the FLU / COVID 19 then 2000 to 3000 pilots will hit the streets. This has been a complete overreaction on the part of government. Hysteria has driven politicians to make stupid decisions that have completely wrecked the economy. The virus is pretty much looked at as a non-threat at all to non aged people.... but now Democratic politicians have figured out they can use lock downs and quarantines to their advantage to wreck the economy. This achieves a couple of big goals for them...it hurts Trump because the strong economy has been a huge feather in his cap AND it has made it possible for large Democratically controlled urban areas to cry poor to the Federal government and seek financial assistance. Bankrupt basket cases like Detroit and Chicago can now leverage the Federal government for bailouts .... take the money and waste it again. It’s pretty late in the game to fix things for us but the sooner stupid lock downs are eliminated the better. Pretty grim outlook for airline workers.
05-02-2020, 08:17 PM
#274
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Posts: 66
The way I see it....
I’m a UAL 2172 guy...
4500ish displacements. So we have, in effect 4500ish too many pilots...today. Could get worse in a few weeks...hopefully not. I was hired 20+ yrs ago. I don’t consider myself safe from a 3rd furlough at worst, sitting bottom reserve right seat narrow body at best. If the company is smart....the training center is staffed until Oct 1...I’d crank the most senior guys on this displacement through training, because come Oct 1 TK is going to be on its ass. Most of our hubs are in Democrat Meccas. IAH May be the saving grace to operations. How do you run a passenger airline without passengers?...you can’t...an impossible scenario. Cargo where you can, passengers where you can...stem the cash burn.
New guys....
Don't look for everyone taking reduced pay/hours to keep you on. It’s not going to happen. Anyone trying to save the company money be taking zero lines is fooling themselves. Use this reprieve until Oct to work alternatives. As I’ve said before, I have faith that the Company and Union are working an impossible problem, hopefully to their best/faithful ability...the solution may not work out to your/my/our benefit....short term or long term.
Do what’s right for you and your families. God Bless.
I’m a UAL 2172 guy...
4500ish displacements. So we have, in effect 4500ish too many pilots...today. Could get worse in a few weeks...hopefully not. I was hired 20+ yrs ago. I don’t consider myself safe from a 3rd furlough at worst, sitting bottom reserve right seat narrow body at best. If the company is smart....the training center is staffed until Oct 1...I’d crank the most senior guys on this displacement through training, because come Oct 1 TK is going to be on its ass. Most of our hubs are in Democrat Meccas. IAH May be the saving grace to operations. How do you run a passenger airline without passengers?...you can’t...an impossible scenario. Cargo where you can, passengers where you can...stem the cash burn.
New guys....
Don't look for everyone taking reduced pay/hours to keep you on. It’s not going to happen. Anyone trying to save the company money be taking zero lines is fooling themselves. Use this reprieve until Oct to work alternatives. As I’ve said before, I have faith that the Company and Union are working an impossible problem, hopefully to their best/faithful ability...the solution may not work out to your/my/our benefit....short term or long term.
Do what’s right for you and your families. God Bless.
05-02-2020, 08:42 PM
#276
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2013
Position: 737/FO
Posts: 195
05-03-2020, 01:49 AM
#277
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2015
Posts: 174
If you are one of those who trained, prepared put everything into getting to the top of the industry and now get furloughed (a nice way of saying “laid off”) with little to zero employment opportunities it certainly seems like the world has come to an end.
These men and women have bills to pay, possibly families to feed and now their near future has almost certainly no possibility of earning at the levels they just enjoyed. Yes it scares the you know what out of them.
My point?
Have some compassion and be thankful for your contractual pay and working conditions you still are blessed with.
These men and women have bills to pay, possibly families to feed and now their near future has almost certainly no possibility of earning at the levels they just enjoyed. Yes it scares the you know what out of them.
My point?
Have some compassion and be thankful for your contractual pay and working conditions you still are blessed with.
05-03-2020, 01:49 AM
#278
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2019
Posts: 903
Nostradamus? Have the 4 horseman of the apocalypse ridden out yet ?
05-03-2020, 03:29 AM
#279
777 - ret
Joined APC: Apr 2020
Position: Waco CG-4 center seat
Posts: 863
I don’t think it’s a bargaining chip at all. If things stay shutdown the way they are then the company is toast. If things rebound a bit then 6000 to 7000 pilots are gone. If things open up and people start to get tired of the hysteria and BS associated with the FLU / COVID 19 then 2000 to 3000 pilots will hit the streets. This has been a complete overreaction on the part of government. Hysteria has driven politicians to make stupid decisions that have completely wrecked the economy. The virus is pretty much looked at as a non-threat at all to non aged people.... but now Democratic politicians have figured out they can use lock downs and quarantines to their advantage to wreck the economy. This achieves a couple of big goals for them...it hurts Trump because the strong economy has been a huge feather in his cap AND it has made it possible for large Democratically controlled urban areas to cry poor to the Federal government and seek financial assistance. Bankrupt basket cases like Detroit and Chicago can now leverage the Federal government for bailouts .... take the money and waste it again. It’s pretty late in the game to fix things for us but the sooner stupid lock downs are eliminated the better. Pretty grim outlook for airline workers.
05-03-2020, 05:21 AM
#280
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2006
Posts: 840
EDIT: reread his original post....you're right. He did attack the dems for prolonging this. I'm not on that wagon just yet.
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