Furlough estimate
05-02-2020, 11:32 AM
#241
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2009
Position: Same Day, 1/2 Pay
Posts: 48
Min/Max shows a Pilot need of 6981. In their minds I think that is the end state number they want to get to. Question is how many Pilots can they put through 737/320 CA and FO training in order to staff that airline. Not sure what the thru put is for TK but this Displacement will create an enormous amount of training required to move senior pilots around and properly train people on their new equipment.
UAL management is one of the most incompetent business leadership groups on the planet. So any bets on Furlough need to take into account their Galactic stupidity and unique inadequacy as businessmen/women.
With that said, I expect them to Furlough 1000- 2000 pilots on Oct 01 and then 100+ per month afterward.
Of course this doesn't account for:
Pilot pay concessions
Work rule changes
B-Scale
Being offered stock in lieu of pay
Concessionary contract
Captains flying Right Seat (an oldy but a goody)
OR
Us just generally bending over to take it in the A$$ while ALPA provides the lube or powder.
I expect to be unemployed (Furloughed...AGAIN) by Christmas or the Spring at the latest.
Good luck to all
UAL management is one of the most incompetent business leadership groups on the planet. So any bets on Furlough need to take into account their Galactic stupidity and unique inadequacy as businessmen/women.
With that said, I expect them to Furlough 1000- 2000 pilots on Oct 01 and then 100+ per month afterward.
Of course this doesn't account for:
Pilot pay concessions
Work rule changes
B-Scale
Being offered stock in lieu of pay
Concessionary contract
Captains flying Right Seat (an oldy but a goody)
OR
Us just generally bending over to take it in the A$$ while ALPA provides the lube or powder.
I expect to be unemployed (Furloughed...AGAIN) by Christmas or the Spring at the latest.
Good luck to all
Last edited by 130av8er; 05-02-2020 at 11:47 AM.
05-02-2020, 11:35 AM
#242
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: 787
Posts: 3,202
Min/Max shows a Pilot need of 6981. In their minds I think that is the end state number they want to get to. Question is how many Pilots can they put through 737/320 CA and FO training in order to staff that airline. Not sure what the thru put is for TK but this Displacement will create an enormous amount of training required to move senior pilots around and properly train people on their new equipment.
UAL management is one of the most incompetent business leadership groups on the planet. So any bets on Furlough need to take into account their Galactic stupidity and unique inadequacy as businessmen/women.
With that said, I expect them to Furlough 1000- 2000 pilots on Oct 01 and then 100+ per month afterward.
Of course this doesn't account for:
Pilot pay concessions
Work rule changes
B-Scale
Being offered stock in lieu of pay
Concessionary contract
OR
Us just generally bending over to take it in the A$$ while ALPA provides the lube or powder.
I expect to be unemployed by Christmas.
Good luck to all
UAL management is one of the most incompetent business leadership groups on the planet. So any bets on Furlough need to take into account their Galactic stupidity and unique inadequacy as businessmen/women.
With that said, I expect them to Furlough 1000- 2000 pilots on Oct 01 and then 100+ per month afterward.
Of course this doesn't account for:
Pilot pay concessions
Work rule changes
B-Scale
Being offered stock in lieu of pay
Concessionary contract
OR
Us just generally bending over to take it in the A$$ while ALPA provides the lube or powder.
I expect to be unemployed by Christmas.
Good luck to all
05-02-2020, 11:45 AM
#243
Line Holder
Joined APC: Feb 2009
Position: Same Day, 1/2 Pay
Posts: 48
I think it would be hard but not impossible to furlough more than 2000 on Oct 01 but I don't think that UAL management are creative enough to do it.
Unfortunately for them, people will need to be trained to fly 737/320's with alot of other training on other fleets.
Just my 2 cents on where it starts. Could be more or less depending on the DB.
05-02-2020, 11:47 AM
#244
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2012
Position: 787
Posts: 3,202
I'd say a third of the Instructors at TK are junior to 6981. That and the need to train across all fleets is why they just posted for additional full time and job share I/E across all Fleets.
I think it would be hard but not impossible to furlough more than 2000 on Oct 01 but I don't think that UAL management are creative enough to do it.
Unfortunately for them, people will need to be trained to fly 737/320's with alot of other training on other fleets.
Just my 2 cents on where it starts. Could be more or less depending on the DB.
I think it would be hard but not impossible to furlough more than 2000 on Oct 01 but I don't think that UAL management are creative enough to do it.
Unfortunately for them, people will need to be trained to fly 737/320's with alot of other training on other fleets.
Just my 2 cents on where it starts. Could be more or less depending on the DB.
05-02-2020, 12:05 PM
#245
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2006
Position: 737 fo
Posts: 908
05-02-2020, 12:24 PM
#246
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2008
Position: 787 Captain
Posts: 1,512
I'd say a third of the Instructors at TK are junior to 6981. That and the need to train across all fleets is why they just posted for additional full time and job share I/E across all Fleets.
I think it would be hard but not impossible to furlough more than 2000 on Oct 01 but I don't think that UAL management are creative enough to do it.
Unfortunately for them, people will need to be trained to fly 737/320's with alot of other training on other fleets.
Just my 2 cents on where it starts. Could be more or less depending on the DB.
I think it would be hard but not impossible to furlough more than 2000 on Oct 01 but I don't think that UAL management are creative enough to do it.
Unfortunately for them, people will need to be trained to fly 737/320's with alot of other training on other fleets.
Just my 2 cents on where it starts. Could be more or less depending on the DB.
05-02-2020, 01:02 PM
#248
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2019
Posts: 502
They threw numbers up like monkeys with feces. Pathetic work Mr Carlson.
05-02-2020, 01:22 PM
#249
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2015
Position: Guppy Gear Slinger
Posts: 2,028
Domino, then you should have no prob taking my bet?? Either that or ST*U.
Originally Posted by domino View Post
"I’d wager about 8000 will be gone, bankruptcy and eventually liquidation as AA and DL move in for the kill. Southwest will triple in size taking the guppies. Sounds strange, but we are in strange times indeed and about to see crazy stuff no one had even thought about."
CAL 73
"I'll take that bet. 1 months pay?? No liquidation, mayybee Ch 11, 20-30% furloughed. So 13000 down to 9100 at most. What ya say domino??"
Originally Posted by domino View Post
"I’d wager about 8000 will be gone, bankruptcy and eventually liquidation as AA and DL move in for the kill. Southwest will triple in size taking the guppies. Sounds strange, but we are in strange times indeed and about to see crazy stuff no one had even thought about."
CAL 73
"I'll take that bet. 1 months pay?? No liquidation, mayybee Ch 11, 20-30% furloughed. So 13000 down to 9100 at most. What ya say domino??"
Please ignore the troll. He is all over every thread on the regional forum trying to get people riled up. He claims to be a new hire at OO but judging by his posts, he's a student pilot with a few failed private checkrides.
05-02-2020, 01:44 PM
#250
Banned
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Position: B-737 Captain
Posts: 657
Holy mother of he11! Carlson has really outdone himself on this one. 
Definitely not his first rodeo. Round 1 and already Captain (6800) is at 22 years seniority (15 years CAL), and WB FO (7876) is at 21 years seniority (13 years CAL). Everybody else....straight to NB FO. The bumpity bump game has been seriously curtailed! I certainly didn't expect this eye watering atomic bomb in round 1. Good luck to us all.
Definitely not his first rodeo. Round 1 and already Captain (6800) is at 22 years seniority (15 years CAL), and WB FO (7876) is at 21 years seniority (13 years CAL). Everybody else....straight to NB FO. The bumpity bump game has been seriously curtailed! I certainly didn't expect this eye watering atomic bomb in round 1. Good luck to us all.
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